[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONFIRMING NRF ACTIVITY IN KABUL ON 28 MAR – Sources from within the Ministry of the Interior confirmed to analysts the night attack on a Taliban security outpost in Eastern Kabul did take place. As many as 15 Taliban were reportedly killed in the attack which was near the Polcharkhi Education Center. We assess this information as valid and agree with other analyst groups that the Spring Offensive has indeed commenced. Other confirmed social media accounts tied to Resistance forces have hailed the operation and appear to confirm the news regarding the 2023 campaign season.
- WOMEN’S RADIO STATION SHUTTERED IN BADAKHSHAN – Radio Sada-e-Banwan (Voice of Women) has been forced to close after Taliban authorities accused the station of playing music during Ramadan. It is not clear if the popular station will be allowed to reopen.
- RUSSIA ACCUSED OF ‘PLAYING GAMES’ WITH IEA – A source in Kandahar said that Taliban senior leadership scoffed at Russian statements made at a regional SCO security conference in India which implied Afghanistan would be a base of international terror operations in the near future. The source said serious considerations were being made to cancel recent economic deals made with Moscow and that a review of recent major infrastructure deals involving Russia should be undertaken. The source said that, in Kandahar at least, Russia is not considered a friend.
- REPORTS SAY IMPRISONED WOMEN’S EDUCATION ACTIVIST HAS REFUSED TO SIGN CONFESSIONS – The imprisoned education activist and founder of the NGO Pen Path, Matiullah Wesa, would not sign a declaration of guilt and is currently in the process of being transferred to a different (unidentified) prison. It is still not clear what charges Wesa faces other than accusations of sedition against the regime. The hashtag #FreeWesa is starting to trend on social media and the international community has lodged multiple complaints with the Taliban over his arrest
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CONFLICT TRACKER:
Kabul: The ALF attacked the Taliban police headquarters at approximately 1800hrs local time in Kabul. The ALF used several hand grenades to target the Taliban guarding the entrance to the facility. Two Taliban were killed and 1 was wounded in the attack. There was no confirmation of any possible ALF casualties.
NEXT 24 HOURS
RESISTANCE FOCUSING ON KABUL SO FAR – The two recently confirmed attacks by Resistance forces which are said to have kicked off the Spring Campaign season both took place in Kabul. It is too early to tell but it may signify intentions among Resistance leaders to ‘take the fight’ to the Taliban in Kabul. While many previous Resistance operations were recorded in Kabul during 2022, they tapered off as the Taliban launched offensive operations in Panjshir, Badakhshan, Ghor, Baghlan, and Takhar Provinces. It seems likely that Kabul will be the focus of the Resistance. At-risk Afghans in Kabul can expect to see operations targeting administrative and military/police infrastructure in the city. Resistance targets have historically avoided potential collateral damage situations that could cause non-combatant casualties but such operations are difficult to control. Throughout 2022, Resistance groups commonly announced their operations on social media. This year, we expect far tighter controls will be put in place by Resistance leaders with regard to releasing information concerning operations. What this means for those at-risk Afghans in the country
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