[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- UNREPORTED INCIDENT IN A GIRLS’ SCHOOL, JAWZJAN PROVINCE ON WEDNESDAY KILLS 2 STUDENTS, INJURES OTHERS – 2 female students (aged 10 and 12) were said to have been killed and 6-10 others were reputedly injured in an explosion inside an elementary school in the Qosh Tepa District. Taliban officials have now confirmed the incident and claim the blast was caused by the students who were accused of playing with a hand grenade when it went off. Some locals are dubious of the official explanation and blame zealots among the Taliban who are attempting to close down all schooling for females. There does not seem to be any evidence to support the latter claim and many lives have been lost due to children playing with unexploded munitions. TAD had received an initial report of a hand-grenade attack in the Province on Thursday but was unable to verify any details and failed to report on the matter.
- TALIBAN SPOKESMAN REJECTS REPORTS OF ATTACK ON POLICE HEADQUARTERS YESTERDAY – Khalid Zadran, a spokesman for the Taliban in Kabul, told reporters with Hamasa Media that the reported drive-by grenade attack on the Police Headquarters in Kabul did not happen. The Afghanistan Liberation Front is said to be preparing video evidence of the attack but has not yet shared it on its social media sites.
- TALIBAN REPRESENTATIVE IN TEHRAN SHOUTED DOWN BY AFGHANS IN TEHRAN FRIDAY – Video taken of a gathering for prayers in the Hemat Abad area of Tehran shows a man, ostensibly a representative of the Taliban, attempting to lead Friday prayers. The crowd erupted into chants of ‘Death to the Taliban’ and ‘Death to the Emirate’. Ultimately, the man and his retinue were forced to leave the area as the crowd became threatening. While the particulars regarding the purported incident are not available, the metadata contained in the videos validate the date/time/location and they do correspond to the accounts.
- SOME QUESTIONING WHETHER THE RESISTANCE HAS COLLAPSED IN AFGHANISTAN – Several Afghanistan analysts and observer organizations are now openly writing off the Resistance in Afghanistan. The recent speculation over Tajikistan’s possible tentative engagement with the Taliban has led many to claim they are now losing their base of support and their days are numbered. Our analysis indicates these predictions are presumptive and are based on a lack of information and a David vs Goliath force ratio that seemingly favors the Taliban. The truth is, nobody knows how many Resistance groups have organized in Afghanistan. Nor do they know how many fighters each command. Based on the operational tempo of the four largest groups, they clearly have footprints in multiple Provinces and have successfully carried out verified operations on many fronts. The Taliban claim to have approximately 100,000 fighters in the ranks and plans to recruit another 200,000 by the end of 2023. While those numbers seem overwhelming, many are now posted to routine security duties which is not something they have demonstrated a proclivity/appetite for. The Taliban also suffers from a rumored schism and loyalties are somewhat divided between Kandahar and Kabul. While it is not clear if the disparate Resistance forces are coordinating closely, it seems likely they will be forced to coalesce at some point and this could present a much more serious challenge to the Taliban. Tajikistan’s supposed tacit acceptance of the Taliban is based more on speculation than substance and even if they accept some diplomatic presence, it does not seem likely it would negate the anti-Taliban sentiment in Dushanbe (or Moscow for that matter). Ultimately, our analysis suggests it is far too early to sound the death knell for the Resistance.
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