[REGNUM] The head of the Kyiv Foreign Ministry, Kuleba, called for "turning the Black Sea into what the Baltic Sea has become - into the NATO Sea." The alliance itself is considering plans for a rapid deployment of forces to the region and is working on Turkey to revise the regime of the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. But there is at least one obstacle to turning into a "NATO lake" besides, in fact, the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. On the other hand, at least one new threat cannot be discounted.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba made a statement that (including, according to the Kremlin) contained a logical contradiction.
"The time has come to turn the Black Sea into what the Baltic has become, into the NATO Sea," said Kiev’s foreign policy curator. At the same time, according to Kuleba's logic, the transformation of the Black Sea into a NATO-controlled military bloc should imply "demilitarization of the region." In July 2021, the same Kuleba stated that Russia is seeking to "turn the Black Sea into its own inland lake."
"There will be no NATO here. NATO has many other seas, let them swim there. And they can’t swim in the Black Sea, they can only sink," the head of the Crimean parliament Vladimir Konstantinov answered Kuleba on April 14 . He recalled that after the Russian troops liberated the coastal regions of the DPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, Ukraine lost access to the Sea of Azov, "the next stage is the loss of access to the Black Sea."
On the other hand, we note that out of the six Black Sea states, three (Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey) are members of the North Atlantic Alliance, and two - Ukraine and Georgia - are rigidly oriented towards NATO.
"Washington, after the collapse of the USSR, in the situation that arose, tried to find a way to turn the Black Sea into a NATO lake,” the Turkish edition Cumhuriyet noted a month ago , commenting on the White House statement: US aircraft will continue flying over the Black Sea, despite the incident with the American Reaper drone and the Russian Su -27.
"ALMOST NATO" SEA
The Black Sea is, of course, not a “NATO lake”, but the situation is strikingly different from the alignment of Soviet times, when only Turkey was part of NATO, the water area from Snake Island to Batumi was Soviet, and socialist Romania and Bulgaria were part of the Warsaw Pact.
After the reunification of Crimea with Russia in 2014, the fleets of NATO countries began to show themselves more actively in the Black Sea. Poseidon, Sea Shield and Sea Breeze maneuvers and other interaction exercises were regularly conducted.
In 2021, as part of the maneuvers, B-1B Lancer bombers of the US Air Force practiced strikes against the positions of the Black Sea Fleet, Forbes reported. At the same time, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: NATO is studying the possibilities for the rapid transfer of forces to the Black Sea region and the deployment of reinforcements there.
Before Turkey closed the Bosphorus and Dardanelles in March 2022, allied warships entered the Black Sea for the passage of warships of other countries, including the flagship of the US 6th Fleet USS Mount Whitney, the missile frigate of the French Navy D654 Auvergne, British Navy destroyer Defender. The latter, we recall, in June 2021 provocatively violated our border in the Black Sea, near the Crimean Cape Fiolent.
In March of this year, the Sea Shield 2023 maneuvers took place in Romanian territorial waters, in which 12 countries - members of the North Atlantic Alliance, several dozen ships of the Romanian and Bulgarian Navy, 14 aircraft from the USA, Turkey, Romania and France were involved.
The Alliance is also actively using the land infrastructure of its Black Sea members. Aegis Ashore anti-missile systems (which can be converted at any time to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, including those with nuclear warheads), we recall, are deployed at the Romanian Deveselu base, which is used by the United States.
Last year, about 5,000 fighters of the US 101st Airborne Division "Screaming Eagles" were stationed at the Mihail Kogalniceanu air base near the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta.
In February 2022, Stoltenberg announced the deployment of a NATO battle group in Romania, the size of which should roughly correspond to similar groups in the Baltic states and Poland - about 1,000 "bayonets." We are not talking about the use of the same Romanian Constanta and the Bulgarian port of Varna for the needs of the navies of NATO countries - this has become a routine.
NATO aviation monitors Russian territory and monitors the activities of the Black Sea Fleet with the help of P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance and patrol aircraft, RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft, RQ-4 Global Hawk drones and other aircraft. True, after the incident with the Reaper drone near Sevastopol, NATO is staying away from Crimea.
“What Bulgaria and Romania have on their own militarily can be ignored,” Captain First Rank of the Reserve Sergey Ishchenko told REGNUM . But, he added, Turkey's capabilities are another matter.
TURKISH DISSENTING OPINION
The country has the second largest NATO army (over 355,000 "under arms") and - which is important in this case - a fairly strong navy. The Turkish fleet has, according to open sources, 16 frigates, 9 corvettes, 18 fast attack boats and 34 landing ships. Another thing is that Turkey keeps naval forces in the Aegean Sea - to "balance" Greece, in the Mediterranean - where, among other things, it covers Northern Cyprus. So the Black Sea direction with naval bases in Sinop and Samsun is unlikely to have a special account at the fleet headquarters (sitting at the Geldzhuk base in the Sea of Marmara).
But the most important thing in relation to Turkey is the political position of its current authorities, headed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, by virtue of which "the Turks will not let American ships into the Black Sea," Ishchenko believes. The oldest (since 1952) Black Sea member of the alliance is at the same time the least reliable US ally in NATO, and Ankara's relations with Washington have become especially aggravated on the eve of the presidential elections in Turkey.
“Turkey is unlikely to use its potential in the Black Sea against us, at least now and in the foreseeable future, and they will not let the Americans through,” - noteds military expert Alexander Artamonov.
Ankara strictly follows the restrictions of the Montreux Convention on the Black Sea Straits, adopted back in 1920. The document, we recall, establishes a different regime for the passage of the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus for warships of the Black Sea and non-Black Sea powers (for the latter, restrictions on class and tonnage are introduced).
Despite the proposals of the allies to circumvent the provisions of the convention or completely cancel the document of confrontation with Russia, Erdogan is unlikely to benefit from the strengthening of the United States (as well as the strengthening of Russia) in the region, Ishchenko is sure.
"I think that with the current position of Turkey in the conflict and with their attitude towards the United States, they will not change the balance of power in the Black Sea. Because then, maybe, in general, it won’t seem enough to anyone if the 6th American fleet enters there - neither to us, nor to them," the military expert pointed out.
"Türkiye takes a strike-breaking position towards NATO. She, although she remains a member of the alliance, is increasingly behaving as, rather, the organizer of the “Great Turan”, Erdogan’s project," agreed Artamonov.
Another thing is that if Erdogan loses to Europe-oriented Kemal Kılıçdaroglu in the elections , Ankara will become more accommodating. But this by no means guarantees the transformation of the Black Sea into a "NATO lake", if only because of the presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
BLACK SEA FLEET: NEW FORCES AND NEW THREATS
"In recent years, the Black Sea Fleet has been strengthened, two Project 23,900 helicopter carriers have been laid down and are under construction in Kerch, which are superior in terms of their tactical and technical characteristics to the French Mistrals that have not been acquired," Artamonov noted.
The Black Sea Fleet received new submarines with modern Lada-class missiles (the next generation after the Varshavyanka submarine, which replenished the fleet about ten years ago), the military expert added. The basis of the Black Sea Fleet are ships that were put into service in the 2010s: the new multi-purpose frigates of project 11 356 "Admiral Grigorovich" (2016), "Admiral Essen" (2016), "Admiral Makarov" (2017).
The loss of the Moskva missile cruiser did not affect the fulfillment of the overall strategic task of the Black Sea Fleet in the NVO - the blockade of the Ukrainian segment of the Black Sea coast, Artamonov believes.
"Everything in the Black Sea is in the shooting zone of Russian coastal batteries, in particular, mobile anti-ship systems “Bal,” so it makes no sense to talk about the possibility of setting up a blockade against Russia," the expert pointed out. The bases of the Black Sea Fleet are covered by: coastal complexes "Bastion" and "Bereg", air defense units with complexes S-400 and S-300, "Buk" and "Shell", silo-based coastal missile system "Utyos" - "ship killer", in the words American National Interest .
But this does not mean complete protection from threats, Ishchenko believes.
"Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are working towards organizing an attack by drones on all the main bases of the Black Sea Fleet, including in Sevastopol,” the source said, according to whom the previous attacks on Crimea were reconnaissance in combat. “As part of the Ukrainian Navy, several units are being formed to control surface drones, similar to those that twice participated in the attack on Sevastopol," Ishchenko believes.
It is necessary to revise the security of the bases, the interlocutor is sure. At the same time, Ishchenko notes that measures are already being taken to protect against possible attacks by surface drones. “I recently observed that in addition to the boom, which was put up at the entrance to the Sevastopol Bay, another row of booms was put up at the entrance to the South Bay, and submarine parking lots were surrounded by separate booms. That is, at least three barrier lines have been created, ” Ishchenko noted.
THE BALTIC IS AN UNFORTUNATE EXAMPLE OF NATO CONTROL
Let us add in conclusion: Kuleba's comparison of the Black Sea with the Baltic, which supposedly has already become the "NATO Sea", also looks strange. Possibly, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry had in mind the entry of Finland into NATO and the possible accession of Sweden. But Kuleba for some reason ignored the presence of the Russian Baltic Fleet (both in Kronstadt and the ports of the Gulf of Finland, and in the Kaliningrad region - in Baltiysk and, in fact, in Kaliningrad). As well as the fact that the Baltic, unlike the Black Sea, is not so easy to "plug".
“The Kaliningrad region is still not in the far part of the Baltic Sea, but in close proximity to the maritime possessions of Poland, Denmark and Sweden. And we have a sufficient number of ships assigned to Kaliningrad, ” Artamonov recalled.
In the event that the NATO countries try to aggravate the situation, the Kaliningrad region, Russia's outpost in the region, will be reliably covered by the Russian Iskander-M operational-tactical complexes. Bastion supersonic systems are deployed in the Baltic, covering the forces of the Baltic Fleet - corvettes, small missile and anti-submarine ships. From the air, the region is protected by MiG-31I fighters (carriers of hypersonic "Daggers") and Su-30SM.
The new military equipment of the Baltic Fleet, such as small missile ships of project 22,800 Karakurt and 21,631 Buyan-M, carries high-precision and long-range Caliber. The Russian leadership understands the situation that has developed after the entry of the countries of the region into NATO, therefore, more attention will be paid to increasing the capabilities of the Baltic Fleet in order to protect national interests in the Baltic.
April 14, 2023
Mikhail Zakharov