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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Americans bring an ultimatum to Russia's partners in Central Asia |
| 2023-04-18 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [REGNUM] Troopers will land in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan from two US departments in charge of anti-Russian sanctions - the US Department of the Treasury and the US Department of Commerce. Officials are bringing "an offer you can’t refuse," blackmail by depriving them of access to "the most important markets" if Russia’s neighbors do not stop parallel imports of sanctioned goods. The US Treasury almost simultaneously sends troops of officials to two post-Soviet countries that are (like Russia) members of the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO defense bloc. Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Elizabeth Rosenberg, along with a group of officials from the US Department of Commerce, will visit Kazakhstan's Astana and Alma-Ata and the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek April 23-28. The United States Department of the Treasury and the Department of Commerce, we recall, are the departments that are responsible for imposing and enforcing sanctions. If Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's February visit to Kazakhstan and Central Asia began with compliments to local leaders, now for the post-Soviet countries (which Washington suspects of conniving at parallel imports of sanctioned goods), the United States clearly has in store not a carrot, but a stick. The press service of the US Treasury announced the purpose of the visit of Rosenberg and her colleagues directly and unambiguously: "U.S. Treasury Offers Clear Business Decision: Stay Involved in the Global Economy or Provide Material Support to the Russian War and Lose Access to the World's Most Important Markets." It is reported that representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, together with colleagues from the EU and the UK, will hold a series of meetings with politicians and entrepreneurs from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, where, obviously, they will bring to the attention of Astana and Bishkek the threat to "deny access.”" The threat of punishment voiced by US officials for maintaining parallel imports is quite serious, Mars Sariev, a Kyrgyz political scientist and public figure , told REGNUM . He recalled that Kyrgyzstan is cooperating with the International Monetary Fund, the Islamic Development Bank (headquartered in Saudi Arabia) and other financial institutions that are somehow controlled by the United States. "The task of the United States is to block the channels of access of sanctioned goods to Russia. As you know, now this flow goes through Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan," said Sariev. Road transportation from Kazakhstan to Russia has tripled (and in a number of categories - 13 times), from Kyrgyzstan to Russia - doubled, Kommersant reported on April 17, citing data from the ATI freight exchange. SU. The total volume of parallel imports (mainly through Kazakhstan, the countries of Central Asia and Belarus), according to the Federal Customs Service, by the end of last year had grown to 2.4 million tons of goods for a total of $20 billion. The intensity of the flow is such that in Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan there is a shortage of warehouse space and infrastructure, the same Kommersant noted . Russia's ally Belarus, due to obvious political reasons, is unlikely to become an object of “processing” by delegations of Washington officials, but Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are more accessible targets. "The task of the Americans is that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan distance themselves from Russia. They are worried about the spike between Russia and China, and Central Asia is in the middle between these powers, points out Mars Sariev. — I think that even the recent events in Zhanaozen in Kazakhstan are not accidental either. The authorities of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are concerned because the US has a powerful financial leverage, but now is the time for these countries to decide and make a choice." Countries that make money on parallel imports, in fear of secondary sanctions from the United States, are already tightening requirements for the transit of goods through their territories - Kazakhstan is an example of this. And, even experiencing problems with warehouse space, many businessmen are in no hurry to expand them, assuming that re-exports may stop. Kyrgyzstan will be forced to comply with the conditions of the West, but it is not easy to control all sectors of the economy, Sariev notes in this regard. A large smuggling flow passes through the republic, and although the ban will be officially announced, it will be impossible to fully track the process, a Bishkek political scientist predicts. “The flow of counterfeit goods came from China and will continue to come. Kyrgyzstan will announce the blocking of channels, but in reality, "gray traffic" will remain,” Sariev believes. In their rhetoric addressed to Russia's Asian neighbors, the Americans are very actively speculating on the topic of secondary sanctions, but in practice there are practically no punishments, Stanislav Pritchin, a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at IMEMO RAS, told REGNUM . “The exception is the Kazakhstani branch of Sberbank, but Astana insisted that Sberbank sell its branch, after which the sanctions were lifted,” the source said. "Now the Americans are trying to cut off opportunities to circumvent sanctions. Kazakhstan is doing better with integration into world markets, and with financial institutions, and it has a greater level of dependence on the West," the expert said." In Kyrgyzstan, this level is lower. For the most part, this applies to small volumes, such as transactions with Western countries. The banking system is not as highly integrated, but the SWIFT system is still used to exchange banking information. Trade with Western Europe is more limited than with Russia." Both the financial structures and the authorities of the Central Asian states are blowing water and trying to avoid even the theoretical possibility of evading sanctions, Pritchin notes. At the same time, he stressed, if the requirements of the United States, which they put forward to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan on parallel imports and cooperation with Russia, are met, this will hit the economies of the two post-Soviet countries in a colossal way. “Nothing is offered in exchange. The Americans are trying to probe where and to what extent it is possible to reduce the financial cooperation of the Central Asian states with Russia, ” Pritchin stated. On the one hand, given the transparency of transactions in the world and the fact that all dollar transactions are controlled by the United States, there is a risk of tracking all transactions and imposing secondary sanctions, the expert noted. But on the other hand, if a blow is dealt to Kazakhstan's raw material export industries, counterparties and consumers in the West itself will suffer, Pritchin points out. This applies, for example, to oil production. Kazakhstani oil, we note, also goes to the West, mainly through the pipes of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) to the terminal in Novorossiysk, and CPC shareholders include the American Chevron and the Italian Eni. And, for example, the French Tolal, the British-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell and the American Exxon Mobil are involved in the project to develop Kashagan, the largest oil and gas field on the Kazakh shelf of the Caspian Sea. "Western companies are engaged in mining, and the main consumers are Western countries," Pritchin said. "The same story for metallurgy: the plant in Temirtau is integrated into the world chains and supplies products of primary metal processing. Production chains will suffer," the expert added. The mining company and the largest steel plant in the republic in Temirtau (Karaganda region), we recall, belong to the transnational company ArselorMittal with its head office in Luxembourg. Kyrgyzstan, which in 2021-2022 nationalized its largest gold mine Kumtor (formerly owned by the Canadian company Centerra), against this background, looks less dependent on Western capital. "There is a constant game going on between the West and our Asian neighbors, and it is not entirely clear whether secondary sanctions can cause damage to the countries of the region in the same way as stopping cooperation with Russia," Pritchin continues. “There is a complex game being played, and the Americans are trying to exaggerate the threat, and the countries of Central Asia are trying to prevent sanctions," he added. The threat of political and economic pressure from American officials is quite real, but it is unlikely that Washington will go too far, which as a result will pinch its own finger, experts conclude. April 17, 2023 Alexander Tishchenko |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 Presumably the same as we thought about the Soviet Union stirring up trouble in Latin America since the 1920s, my dear Hupainter Peacock1045. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2023-04-18 13:07 |
| #1 Stirring up trouble on Russia's border? What would we think if Russia was stirring up trouble in Mexico and Central America? |
| Posted by: Hupainter Peacock1045 2023-04-18 11:31 |