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| Kuleba in Iraq and the new US strategy: the battle for the Black Sea is gaining momentum |
| 2023-04-19 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [REGNUM] US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the White House will present a new strategy for the Black Sea by June. It will be based on the fact that out of the six countries that have access to it, three are members of NATO, and "Ukraine is obviously an important friend of the United States." This approach involves the creation of new strongholds along the perimeter of the Black Sea ports. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba paid a surprise visit to Baghdad, where he held talks with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein and was received by Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Al-Sudani . This was the first visit by a Ukrainian official to Baghdad since February 2022 and the first visit by a Ukrainian Foreign Minister to Iraq in 11 years. "MYSTERY VISIT" The day before, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, announcing this visit, qualified it as "a continuation of the strategy of opening new horizons in the Middle East and creating new opportunities for the Ukrainian state, business and citizens." But these are just words, because no one knows whether Ukraine will be able to maintain international subjectivity, economic and other viability. In fact, the Ukrainian economy, which collapsed by almost 30% last year, is supported solely by Western injections. In such circumstances, the discussion in Iraq of "new opportunities for the Ukrainian state in the field of business" seems appropriate only under certain certain conditions, about which little is known so far. If you arrange events in chronological order, then the alignment looks like this. On April 7, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov that he had invited Kuleba to Ankara to discuss a settlement in Ukraine. Apparently, Kyiv refused. After that, on April 10, the head of the Iraqi government, during a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. As the Arab portal Shafaq News reported, Kiev did not immediately reject this proposal and sent Kuleba to Baghdad, although it was initially obvious that Iraq's desire to "become part of the decision to end the war in Ukraine" had no real political prospects. And so it happened, when Kuleba, at a joint press conference in Baghdad, thanked Baghdad for "supporting Ukraine on the international stage" but emphasized that any ceasefire "should require the restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity and the withdrawal of Russian troops." At the same time, Kiev expressed its readiness to " work through all aspects of our bilateral relations and outline common projects," to become part of the efforts to rethink Ukrainian-Iraqi relations." But in order to make such statements, Kuleba did not need to fly to Baghdad. The Associated Press, commenting on this "mysterious visit," links it to Kiev's new aspirations "to rethink Ukrainian-Iraqi relations" and to Kuleba's recent statement at the Black Sea security conference in Bucharest that "the Black Sea should become a NATO sea." "BLACK SEA STRATEGY" This is how the AP makes it clear that the US is returning to the doctrine of action outlined several years ago by the famous American political scientist George Friedman in an article entitled "Ukraine, Iraq and the Black Sea Strategy." Its main meaning is that it is necessary to build military planning taking into account two existing theaters of military operations with a wide potential value. One of them is Ukraine, the other is at the junction of Syria and Iraq, and the "center of gravity of operations" should be the Black Sea. According to Friedman, "there is no connection between these two theaters now, but it should appear, but in such a way that the United States avoids direct military involvement." To do this, Iraq must be turned into Syria, " a country with a battle between factions." As for Turkey, according to the proposed scenario, it "becomes one of the indispensable allies, since its interests should be in contact with American ones." Aligning US and Turkish strategies "should be a precondition for a Black Sea strategy, but both countries need to make either major political shifts or Turkey must be tamed with changes in the regional balance of power." The fact that these are not theoretical judgments is evidenced by Anthony Blinken's statement at the hearings in the US Senate Appropriations Committee. According to him, the White House will present a strategy for the Black Sea by June. It will be built on the fact that of the six countries that have access to the Black Sea, three states are members of NATO, and "Ukraine is obviously an important friend of the United States." This approach involves the creation of strongholds along the perimeter of the Black Sea ports, as well as, possibly, the presence of aviation formations and the basing of ships of the US Navy and other countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, the deployment of infrastructure for reconnaissance operations. According to Blinken, "the US strategy for the Black Sea region will focus not only on security aspects, but also on intensifying political interaction, on intensifying economic cooperation, including strengthening energy security" with these countries. NEW ARC OF TENSION At this stage, the main emphasis will be placed on Romania, which also occupies an important place in NATO's plans for the Intermarium - a "cordon sanitaire" located along the western borders of Russia: Romania - Poland - the Baltic states. In addition, Bucharest will be stimulated to regional leadership and set two main tasks: to oppose Russia in the Black Sea and to prevent the possible emergence of a Moscow-Belgrade geopolitical axis. Georgia also plays a special role in the proposed combination. As for Turkey as a member of NATO, according to the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, it "will be pushed towards abandoning the Montreux Convention or its renewal so that the United States can establish strategic superiority over Russia and, by holding a very important zone of Eurasia, gain an advantage in the global struggle for power." Recall that this convention, adopted in 1936, does not allow the United States to be uncontrolled in the Black Sea and imposes restrictions on the number and tonnage of ships for countries that do not have access to the Black Sea. In this regard, Romanian experts propose, as an interim solution, "to introduce American ships into the "small Black Sea Fleet" operating under the flag of Romania." An American military base may appear on the Black Sea coast in Romania. Turkey, until a final decision is made, will be put out of the picture and subjected to pressure from NATO partners. In a word, by adopting a new Black Sea strategy, Washington sends a signal to Ankara that it is dissatisfied with its ambiguous position in the Ukrainian crisis and Erdogan's too long "two chairs." The United States is creating a new "arc of tension" with the potential connection of Ukraine: the Black Sea - the Middle East (Syria and Iraq) - the Caucasus (a single combat theater). When looking at the map, it can be noted that the Black Sea is a geographical link between these areas. It acts as the southern border of Ukraine with the European part of Russia and the Caucasus. Northern Syria and Iraq are less than 650 kilometers from the Black Sea. According to Friedman, the alliance could stretch between the Baltic and Black Seas, to the Caspian, including Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan, localizing Russia. At the same time, "possible events in Syria, Iraq, Turkey or the Caucasus are secondary compared to the problems of Russia's future relations with Ukraine and the European Peninsula." This is the geopolitical context of Kuleba's mission to Iraq, which for Kyiv is more of an educational, reconnaissance nature. The United States, as one American expert writes, " intends to bring Ukraine, Syria, Iraq and the Caucasus together in a united front ." The message is clear, as are the motives for the emergence of a new American strategy. However, the plans and dreams of the United States may stumble over the pragmatic considerations of Moscow, Ankara, Damascus, Tehran and other centers of power in the region. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has already stated that the Black Sea will never be a NATO sea. According to him, this is a sea for all coastal countries, which should be a sea of ​​cooperation, interaction and security. So the battle for the Black Sea is gaining momentum. April 18, 2023 Stanislav Tarasov |
| Posted by:badanov |