[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- POSSIBLE NON-COMBATANT KILLINGS REPORTED IN BADAKHSHAN – Several news outlets reported a clash between Taliban security forces and local opium farmers on 11 May in the Darayim District of Badakhshan. It now seems as if the early reporting was accurate and at least 4 non-combatants were reputedly killed in the clash with local Taliban militia. Some reports say that 4 Taliban were also injured in the fray. The Taliban have been clear that they intend to wipe out the drug trade in the country, but farmers have been left with few alternatives to grow replacement crops.
- FIRST CASE OF POLIO FOR 2023 REPORTED IN AFGHANISTAN – A young child from Nangarhar Province has tested positive for the disease. Pakistan and Afghanistan completed a large-scale polio vaccination campaign in 2022-23.
- PAKISTANI ARMY UNITS ENGAGE TERRORISTS IN BALOCHISTAN – Acting on intelligence, Pakistani military forces conducted a counter-terrorism operation in Muslim Bagh Town yesterday that resulted in the deaths of 6 terror suspects. The unidentified terror group had reputedly attacked a military camp on the outskirts of the town earlier in the day and had been tracked back to a residential neighborhood full of families. A military spokesman said that 2 of the Pakistani Army soldiers had been killed and 1 non-combatant was killed in the crossfire. Muslim Bagh Town has been the site of four clashes in the past eight days and it is unclear which terror organization appears to have established a base of operations there.
- RUSSIA CALLS FOR INCLUSIVE LEADERSHIP AND CRITICIZES RECENT UN MEETING IN DOHA – Zamir Kabulov, special envoy for Afghanistan said in an interview with the TASS news agency that Afghanistan must form an inclusive government before focusing on repealing the bans on women in the humanitarian sector and education. Kabulov said that forcing the repeal of the bans should come after a legal and representative government is put in place. He then went on to say that Russia can’t support an international approach while Afghanistan’s frozen reserves remain in Switzerland. Several US officials have opined that Russia and China’s fixation on the frozen reserves have little to do with stability in Afghanistan and are more focused on challenging the West’s decision to impose sanctions against Russia and select Chinese companies. Perhaps the point is moot as the Taliban have shown very little inclination to include ethnic minorities in the decision-making process or to repeal the bans on women.
NEXT 24 HOURS
- PAKISTAN SITUATION – While calm has returned to the majority of the country, the Prime Minister has ordered Police and Military forces to ‘round-up’ suspects who may have participated in vandalism and arson during the protests. By most accounts, this is taking place and several arrests were reported over the previous twenty-four hours. The Prime Minister has mandated the operation to continue for another 48 hours. We do not assess any specific risk to at-risk Afghans but some protestors may resist arrest and limited bouts of violence could take place. We recommend that at-risk Afghans continue to exercise caution and we do not foresee any more protests until at least the 15th of May when the former Prime Minister could face arrest again. We recommend those families/individuals who sheltered in place over the last week use the time available in the next 36 hours to stock back up on food and water.
- TURKISH ELECTIONS – President Erdogan faces the toughest reelection bid of his career and is in a dead heat with rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Kilicdaroglu is center-left but has welded together six political parties to mount his challenge to Erdogan. Strangely, one of the platforms he has run on is to deport both Syrian and Afghan refugees should his coalition win. While there is no immediate threat to at-risk Afghans residing in Turkey, emotions could run high and protests could take place that may target refugees.
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