Ukrainian troops are conducting offensive operations for the fourth day, but it is still premature to say that the fighting has reached its peak.

Is this already an offensive or is it still reconnaissance in force?

As a rule, the combat formations of troops are covered by air defense forces. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as for an army of the post-Soviet type, where ground forces are of decisive importance, the cover of troops by air defense forces is the key to successful operations both in defense and in attack.

The movement of air defense systems became one of the clear signs of preparation for the offensive. In recent weeks, Soviet-style short-range air defense systems (for example, Osa-AKM) have come into motion. A little later, the appearance (and further defeat by drones and aircraft) of S-300 medium-range air defense systems in the front-line zone was recorded.

Immediately before the offensive at the frontappearedand more modern NATO weapons. On June 6, not far from the front (about 25 km from the LBS), the German IRIS-T SLM air defense system, transferred to Ukraine for organizing air defense over Kiev, was destroyed.

The missile launch range of this air defense system is about 40 km, which means that in order to control at least part of the airspace over the positions of the Russian Armed Forces, Ukrainian troops deployed it in the immediate vicinity of the front. The transfer of the air defense system and its deployment were recorded from the air, and Lancet drones flew into the German air defense system almost immediately.

What is unusual about this attack?

A significant part of the equipment, including the Leopard 2A4 and Leopard 2A6 tanks, is used in the Zaporozhye direction in an extremely strange and ill-conceived way. The Armed Forces of Ukraine operate in small scattered armored groups of mixed composition. In some cases, wheeled armored vehicles (MRAP, armored personnel carriers) go on the attack without the support of artillery or tanks; groups were recorded with a ratio of light wheeled armored vehicles and tanks of 10 to 1.

At the same time, the mechanized groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not include engineering equipment for demining, and the Leopards themselves were initially transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine without minesweeps, which are critically needed during the offensive.

In a number of cases, the Armed Forces of Ukraine manage to break through only a narrow corridor, at the entrance to which about eight to ten pieces of equipment accumulate. Such a large and clearly visible target from the air is almost instantly hit by artillery, ATGM crews or Ka-52 army aviation helicopters.

In addition, it is known that enemy armored groups prefer to move along roads, which limits their maneuverability and makes them an easy target for artillery and army aviation.

According to preliminary data, due to the lack of engineering equipment and engineering reconnaissance before the onset, the loss of Ukrainian equipment in four days exceeds 300 units.

What can be concluded?

A defensive line of several dozen lines was invented by the General Staff and General Surovikin for good reason. It works - and it works well. At the same time, most of the Ukrainian troops involved to date have either been transferred from other areas, or formed from mobilized ones. The motivation of such units, to put it mildly, is low, which directly affects the result of the offensive.

A colossal work has been done in terms of communication. The units of the RF Armed Forces have it, the enemy has serious problems from the first days. GPS signals, UAV control channels are jammed.

When planning the operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine clearly expected to quickly slip through the minefields and wedge into the defense, pulling up reserves. It did not work out to wedge in - and now the Ukrainian command has to improvise.

One of the results of such improvisation was an attempt to use the M142 HIMARS jet systems in the advanced fortified areas of the RF Armed Forces. Apparently, expensive missile systems are used in some cases due to the lack of Soviet-style long-range rocket artillery, which indirectly indicates difficulties with ammunition and supplies for the offensive as a whole.

According to the latest data, the enemy was able to gain a foothold in the Lobkovoe settlement, the fighting continues, the enemy is trying to expand the occupied bridgehead by introducing additional armored vehicles (up to 12 tanks and other armored vehicles).

Over the past day and a half, the losses of the enemy amounted to:
In the Orekhovskoye direction - up to 43 pieces of equipment, of which up to 26 tanks and other armored combat vehicles.
On the "Vremievsky ledge" - 32 units of tanks and other AFVs (t-72, wheeled armored vehicles Max Pro, Humvee, BMP 1.2)

Nevertheless, so far the enemy has not suffered a critical level of losses, since, at present, the enemy has concentrated at least 7 brigades from the 9th and 10th Army Corps on the Zaporozhye Front, the enemy still has enough equipment, but the opposite situation arises with personnel, the highest losses (in other units over 30% of the personnel in a few hours of combat) with more than modest tactical successes. Artillery and army aviation are actively working on our side, as well as very effective strikes by tactical aviation.