by Petr Akopov
[REGNUM] Although the shock of what happened has not yet passed, it is already clear that when giving the order to start the “march of justice” to Rostov and Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin was not going to either take power or unleash bloodshed - he wanted to blackmail the authorities.
Fearing that the Wagner would soon be taken away from him, he decided that he could put pressure on President Vladimir Putin and get the decision to transfer the Wagners to a contract with the Ministry of Defense reversed. At the same time, deciding on armed blackmail, Prigozhin overestimated the dissatisfaction of the elites and the people with Sergei Shoigu , thought that everyone would begin to demand (or at least hint) at the need to dismiss the minister in order to stop the "march".
Nothing of the sort happened. But Prigozhin has worked himself up so much in recent months and heard so much behind-the-scenes dissatisfaction with Shoigu from various leaders (including the army), that it seems that he seriously counted on moral support for his actions.
Prigozhin's adventure was absolutely insane, but really dangerous. Because the army was not going to fight the Wagners (although it was not going to take their side). It is clear that Putin was not going to give the order to storm Rostov. But if the column approached Moscow, the situation would become critical: it is much more difficult to negotiate in the face of head-to-head confrontation between armed people.
At what point did Prigozhin realize that no one would sacrifice Shoigu? In a good way, he should have understood this even before entering Rostov, around 11 pm, when a message appeared about the initiation of a criminal case for inciting to sedition. Well, at the latest - at 10 am, after Putin's address with words about rebellion and betrayal. It was then that he began negotiations with the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (probably, the Tula governor Aleksey Dyumin joined at the same time ).
There was no panic in the Kremlin - all the same, there was confidence that Prigozhin had not lost his mind and that an agreement would be reached. But the nerves, of course, were at the limit from the mere thought of the possibility of fighting at the entrance to Moscow.
Prigozhin quickly played back, having received guarantees from Lukashenka and Putin (transferred through Dyumin?). But the damage done to them is still enormous.
Rostov-on-Don. Military equipment PMC "Wagner" on the city street
This is the strongest blow to the state and its reputation in the world. And a gift to our enemies, who have now received food for shaming over the Russian turmoil. And a blow to Putin's reputation - after all, he could not, if not repay, then at least keep under control the growing conflict between "his" Prigozhin and "his" Shoigu. But at the same time, after the beginning of the unrest, both the actions and the public statement of the president were absolutely correct.
Prigozhin practically destroyed his reputation, turned from a truth-seeking hero into a mentally unbalanced and dangerous adventurer, blinded by pride, framed Wagner for disbandment (I would very much like to be able to basically save him).
But still, Russia was able to withstand this blow. The blow is idiotic, provocative, coming not from enemies, but from excited, offended (fairly not) and, alas, narrow-minded patriots. The understanding of the categorical inadmissibility of turmoil, the impossibility of an armed solution of problems (not only during the war), the inadmissibility of blackmailing state power, even under the most correct slogans of “truth and justice”, worked, and it worked not only at the top, but also among the majority of the people.
At the same time, we really need a "march of justice." Led by Putin, who now simply cannot put off until “after the conflict” the most serious changes in the rules for the formation and work of the nomenklatura, and in values, and the publicly proclaimed meanings of the existence of the Russian state. Putin has proved his ability to meet the challenges facing Russia more than once, and he will do it this time.
