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| Why Erdogan supported Ukraine's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance |
| 2023-07-10 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Yashar Niyazbaev [REGNUM] President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky visited Turkey on July 7, 2023 to enlist the support of Ankara, including in the supply of weapons, as well as the export of grain from Ukrainian ports. Later it also became known that Ankara extradited to Ukraine the commanders of Azov (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), who were in Turkey and were supposed to remain there until the end of the conflict with Russia. During his visit, Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan , and the next day visited Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew . At 16:30, information appeared on the page of the President of Ukraine that five Azov commanders* had been handed over to the Ukrainian side. MAIN MESSAGE The President of Ukraine arrived late, and the dialogue between Erdogan and Zelensky lasted two and a half hours. The details of the communication were not disclosed, but at the ensuing press conference, Erdogan read a long speech, followed by Zelensky. Journalists were allowed to ask one question from each country. If we analyze the speech of the President of Turkey, we can pay attention to three points. First, he highlighted Turkey's efforts to promote peace and resolve conflicts, mainly between Ukraine and Russia. It was stated that Turkey will continue its efforts as a mediator to end the crisis through negotiations. Secondly, Erdogan voiced Turkey's position: Kyiv deserves to be a member of NATO. These words became the main news of the meeting. And they were uttered at the moment when US President Joe Biden talks about Ukraine's unpreparedness for membership, and Washington is still waiting for Turkey's approval of Sweden's membership in NATO. However, Ankara is not in a hurry with Stockholm, but talks about Kyiv's membership. Turkey, therefore, knowing about the claims of the West because of its close relationship with Russia, is trying to show that it is not opposed to NATO expansion. In addition to trying to balance between Moscow and the West, this could also be a gesture aimed at demonstrating its influence on decision-making within the alliance. Thirdly, Erdogan noted the importance of continuing the initiative of the Black Sea Grain Corridor, which, according to him, has proven its effectiveness. And he announced that he was waiting for the visit of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to Turkey. The main message following the meeting between Zelensky and Erdogan is as follows: it was important to show the Turkish citizens that the actions of their president contribute to the positioning of Turkey in the international arena as a key player in regional and global issues, including the situation around Ukraine. They should instill in the Turks a sense of pride and confidence in their leader, a sense that Turkey plays an important and active role in world affairs, strengthening its international status and influence. That is why the meeting itself on Turkish air was accompanied by headlines like: “Will Turkey end the conflict in Ukraine?”, “Will the Putin-Zelensky peace treaty be signed in Istanbul?”. UNFRIENDLY MOVE In addition to an agreement on the construction of a plant for the creation of strike drones in Ukraine, other topics of negotiations were not disclosed. But the next day it became known that Ankara had handed over to Kiev the Azov commanders * who were in Turkey and, according to informal agreements, were supposed to stay there until the end of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In Turkey itself, this news was made public rather late. Even though she appeared at 5:00 p.m., it was not until 8:00 p.m. that a Turkish news agency released statements from the Zelensky administration website. At the same time, there were no official statements from the Turkish side. Perhaps the silence is due to the fact that the Turkish layman did not care about the “Azovites” * from the very beginning. Few commentators tried to explain that this could be some kind of "message" due to the possible non-renewal of the "grain deal" by Russia. Others have suggested that the "message" may be related to the situation in Syria. In particular, expert Omer Ozkizildzhik spoke about this on the air of the Saudi TV channel Ash Shark. In his opinion, the current actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Idlib zone displease Turkey. However, he also noted that only five Azov commanders* were handed over, which is a symbolic gesture. PREPARE IN SILENCE Meanwhile, political scientist, RIAC expert Kirill Semenov recalls rumors about the transfer of Turkish Fyrtyna T-155 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. “If indeed Turkey made a decision on these deliveries and, in addition to this, also released interned militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then this will indicate a serious turn of Ankara towards Kiev, and we can expect further reciprocal steps from Turkey towards Ukraine and the stagnation of Russian-Turkish relations, ” he thinks. And this can be explained by the fact that Turkey now needs to attract Western investments and financial injections into the country, since it sees them as a possible way out of the economic crisis. However, according to the expert, "if Turkey does not deliver these howitzers in the end, then the transfer of fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not such a significant problem for Russian-Turkish relations, unlike the transfer of those same howitzers to Ukraine. " It is worth recalling here that information about the transfer of self-propelled guns has already appeared in Ukrainian publications with reference to the deputy chief of the main operational headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Aleksey Gromov . Turkey has already sent various weapons to Ukraine, such as Bayraktar TV2 drones, Kirpi, Kobra-II armored personnel carriers, TR-122 and TRLG-230 missiles, personal protective equipment. However, these deliveries have never been publicly reported, and there is no information about this in Turkish open sources, just as there is none in relation to self-propelled howitzers. The main question is how Russia relates to the transfer of the Azov people. This step could not but cause discontent, however, the statements made by the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov , in the context of relations between Ankara and Moscow, can be called restrained. Peskov told RIA Novosti that the transfer of the leaders of Azov* to Ukraine from Turkey is a violation of the terms of the agreements both on the Ukrainian and Turkish sides. They, the presidential press secretary added, were supposed to remain in Turkey until the end of the conflict, and their extradition is connected with the failures of Ukraine in the counteroffensive. In other words, in Moscow, Erdogan's decision was perceived negatively, but they are trying to find logic. Or you can call it an excuse in a difficult situation for Ankara. Russia does not consider the transfer of the “Azov”* to be the right step, but it does not intend to aggravate the situation because of this. Given bilateral relations, economic ties, and Turkey's position as a NATO country that has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, Ankara believes that it can afford such gestures, including in order not to look overly pro-Russian in the eyes of NATO allies. And, most likely, in Turkey they believe that on the eve of the summit of the North Atlantic Alliance next week in Vilnius, such an understanding should be on the part of Moscow. ESCALATION OR DE-ESCALATION? The situation related to the return of Ukrainian captured Azov militants* to Kyiv points to a complex geopolitical picture in which Turkey, Ukraine and Russia are involved. Apparently, Russia does not seek to escalate relations. And at the same time, Turkey may be trying to balance its relationship with Russia and NATO, especially in light of its potential economic needs and the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius. If we talk about a negative scenario for the development of events, then tension in bilateral relations may manifest itself in different directions, for example, in Syria or Karabakh. Or in limiting Turkey's actions as a mediator. There were many such moments between Russia and Turkey. But here it is important to note that the further development of events will depend on the actions of both sides. Efforts to de-escalate the situation, diplomatic resolutions or readiness for dialogue could potentially ease further tensions in relations. More from RIA Novosti Lavrov discussed with the Turkish Foreign Minister the return of the leaders of "Azov"* to Ukraine Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov discussed by telephone with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan the destructiveness of Ankara's course to continue military assistance to Kiev and the situation with the return of the leaders of "Azov" to Ukraine, according to the website of the diplomatic department. "Ankara's attention was drawn to the destructiveness of the course to continue the supply of military equipment to the Kiev regime. The corresponding steps, as it was emphasized, can only lead to negative consequences," the statement says. It is noted that Lavrov and Fidan also exchanged views on the regional situation, including the situation around the return of the Azov leaders to Ukraine. On Friday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Turkey, where he held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The next day, the head of the Kyiv regime announced that Denis Prokopenko, Svyatoslav Palamar, Sergey Volynsky, Oleg Khomenko, Denis Shlega were flying to Kyiv from Istanbul. As the press secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov emphasized , the return of the Azov commanders to Ukraine was a violation of the terms of the existing agreements. According to him, these persons, according to the agreements, were to stay in Turkey until the end of the conflict. At the same time, the official noted that Ankara made this decision under pressure amid the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the counteroffensive and the upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius. In September last year, the acting head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin , said that after the exchange of prisoners with Kiev, 56 people were released, of which 55 were military personnel: five of them were from Donbass , the rest were Russian troops. A total of 215 people were handed over to Ukraine, among whom were the leaders of the Azov terrorist regiment. Erdogan also reported on the exchange. In January, the Hurriyet newspaper, citing sources, wrote that the Azov people were still in Turkey, which, as noted, was a demand from Russia. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #3 Russians and Turks over the centuries have frequently butted heads. It's a tough neighborhood. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2023-07-10 13:25 |
| #2 These words became the main news of the meeting. So the encroachment upon Syria was largely ignored? |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2023-07-10 07:51 |
| #1 That Erdojuan dude is an interesting bird. |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2023-07-10 07:22 |