[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- IRAN CONTINUES TO RAISE STAKES OVER WATER RIGHTS – Iranian leaders have proposed non-diplomatic options to effectively ‘punish’ the Taliban regime for violations it sees in the Helmand Treaty. Iran is planning to send a survey team to Afghanistan to check on water levels in reservoirs that feed the Helmand River. However, the Iranian regime has publicly criticized Taliban claims that it was living up to its commitments under the treaty and have referenced satellite imagery that suggests Afghanistan has been impeding the flow of water and impinged on Iran’s rights. One of the newly proposed measures that was raised in the Iranian Parliament would be the forced closure of the Taliban’s embassy in Tehran. Other commercial penalties are also being considered. Relations between the two countries have always been difficult but the rhetoric coming out of Tehran has changed in recent months with Iranian officials taking a harder line with Kabul/Kandahar. The water issue is particularly dangerous because the drought-affected regions in Iran constitute a domestic issue that Ministers and elected officials have to deal with from Iranian citizens.
- TALIBAN LOOKING FOR SECRET MEETINGS OF WOMEN GROUPS IN THE COUNTRY – Another letter purportedly from the Ministry of the Interior, is circulating on social media accounts. In the letter, the Ministry informs the Taliban security apparatus that many ‘underground’ women’s groups were conducting secret meetings. The letter directs Taliban security forces to identify these groups and report the information to Kabul. Apparently, the activity has been ongoing for the past three months.
- FLOODING TRAGEDY KILLS MANY – While several Provinces have reported severe flooding in the wake of heavy rains across Pakistan and Afghanistan, Maidan Wardak appeared to be particularly hard hit, and emergency managers in the Province reported over 20 deaths so far and a similar number of people are missing. Pakistan officials have reported over 30 deaths, nearly 80 injured, and at least 40 are missing. Rains are expected to continue in the region until Wednesday.
- 2 FOREIGNERS REPORTEDLY ABDUCTED IN KABUL – Few details are available about reports that 2 foreign nationals were abducted late on Friday or early Saturday in Kabul. The nationalities of the 2 individuals have not yet been released but a source in Kabul said they were working for an international aid agency. Taliban security forces were alerted and are searching in multiple neighborhoods around the city. No group has claimed credit for the purported abductions. While ISIS-K has not yet claimed credit, there are concerns they are responsible for this event and that it may be the threat the Taliban was referencing in the lead-up to Muharram.
- PAKISTAN POLICE WARN CITIZENS AND FOREIGN NATIONALS NOT TO SUBMIT TO SEARCHES BY THOSE NOT WEARING OFFICIAL UNIFORMS – A continuing problem in Pakistan (and around the world) happens when criminals attempt to impersonate legitimate law enforcement and will stop pedestrians or vehicles and ‘search’ them. Commonly, criminals will perpetrate these crimes in areas where police are not active. They will conduct the searches and in many cases, they will say that a law has been broken and will confiscate things like cell phones, money, and identity documents as ‘evidence’. Responding to a possible uptick in these types of crimes, the Ministry of the Interior in Pakistan is telling people that it does not conduct searches using people not wearing uniforms and encourages people to report any suspicious attempts by calling 15. It is important to note that Pakistani Police have been conducting more searches in differing locations in response to security concerns related to Muharram.
NEXT 24 HOURS
TALIBAN SEARCH FOR ABDUCTED FOREIGNERS COULD TURN VIOLENT IN KABUL – If, as some fear, ISIS-K was responsible for the kidnapping of the 2 aid workers there is a strong possibility that violence will ensue. While many kidnappings in the country are not political and are focused more on eliciting a bribe for the release of people, those instances typically do not involve foreign nationals. If ISIS-K is responsible, we assess that a negotiated return of the captives will be unlikely and the terrorist group will have conducted the necessary planning to capitalize on the international media attention that will almost certainly follow this developing situation. The Taliban have not shown restraint in previous engagements with ISIS-K and local commanders have likely been pressured to recover the abducted personnel quickly. Considering the amount of time that has elapsed since ISIS-K conducted a major operation, they have likely prepared their forces