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| Africa North |
| Macron wants to return Niger by proxy |
| 2023-08-09 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Petr Akopov [RIA] The West does not know what to do with Niger. After the coup in this West African country, the United States and France, whose troops are in Niger, faced a difficult choice - to organize the violent overthrow of the military who took power or try to negotiate with them peacefully. But in the incomplete two weeks that have passed since the coup, it turned out that none of the options worked. What is the reason? The fact that the French and Americans immediately not only declared their non-recognition of the new authorities and demanded the reinstatement of the deposed president, but also began to threaten sanctions and military intervention. Not on their own, but through the hands of Niger's neighbors from the countries of the ECOWAS regional union - while everyone understands that it is Paris and Washington that will direct the actions of the interventionists. However, the threat of a military invasion not only did not frighten the new authorities in Niamey , but also caused a number of consequences that only worsened the situation for the West. The new leader of Niger, General Tchiani, announced the rupture of military agreements with France and demanded that French troops be withdrawn from the country within a month. The leaders of neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso supported the Niger military and said that an attack on Niger would be tantamount to a declaration of war on their countries. Tchiani's deputy, General Modi, visited Bamako and Ouagadougou , the capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso, for talks with the leaders of these countries - and allegedly even met with representatives of the Wagner PMC there. Then the Senate of Nigeria, the main regional power with a population of 220 million (against 25 in Niger), did not give consent to intervention in a neighboring country - and the week-long ultimatum of ECOWAS expired without any consequences. Moreover, neighboring Chad, whose President Déby came to Niamey in the first days after the coup to meet with both Chiani and the ousted President Bazum, declared that he would not participate in the ECOWAS-led military intervention. And the leader of Niger's northern neighbor, Algeria , Tebun opposed any military intervention because it could set the entire region on fire. In Niamey itself, a large rally was held last weekend in support of Tchiani, and on Monday delegations from Mali and Burkina Faso arrived in the city to express solidarity with the neighboring people. At the same time, there were unconfirmed reports of the arrival of the first Wagner instructors in Niamey, so far from neighboring Mali. That is, in a matter of days, a complex combination lined up: most of Niger's neighbors are against intervention, and two (Nigeria and Benin ) are in favor, although it seems more in words. The latter are joined by several other ECOWAS countries, but without Nigeria no intervention is possible. However, Nigeria will not fight - because the intervention will blow up itself. After all, the largest people both in it and in Niger are the Hausa, that is, it turns out that the Nigerian army will have to fight with their own tribesmen. Yes, both countries are multiethnic, but the war against Hausa Muslims will also hit the multi-religious alignment in Nigeria, where there are huge contradictions between the rich Christian south and the poor Muslim north. That is, to fight in Niger - and for Western interests - who want to fight in AfricaNo. However, preparations for the operation are still allegedly underway. Why? Because the loss of Niger would be a huge political blow to France, effectively killing her reputation in the Sahel , in that part of West Africa . Now French troops are deployed in six countries of the continent - after leaving Niger, there will still be Djibouti, Chad, Gabon, Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire. But given that in recent years Paris has lost influence (and withdrawn contingents) from the CAR, Mali and Burkina Faso, the trend is looming very unpleasant. Niger, along with Chad, was the most important base for French troops - and if Paris cannot maintain its influence in Niger, there is no guarantee that it will be able to stay in Chad for a long time. And the loss of Chad will mean a complete loss of the opportunity to influence all of West Africa - the contingents in Senegal and Gabon are symbolic, and although the Foreign Legion is based in Djibouti, this base is located on the other side of Africa. Therefore, France wants to punish the Niger rebels in any way in order to stop the further collapse of its African positions. But she herself does not want to fight, because this will cause an explosion of anti-French feelings throughout the region and throughout Africa. Paris assured the Africans that it was helping them fight terrorists and Islamists, forgetting to add that the last wave of instability in the same Sahel rose just after the French overthrew Gaddafi and destroyed Libya. But now is not 2011, and even more so not the 60-90s of the last century, when French paratroopers could easily change the government in the "liberated" countries of Africa. France can no longer afford to use force in its zone of influence, because it has lost both most of its influence and the ability to use force. China came to Africa and Russia returned - in different ways, but seriously and for a long time. And we don't even have to "stir up" any conspiracies against the French. As the current events in Niger show, in a country with practically no ties with Russia (let us recall that there was not even an embassy of the Russian Federation in Niamey), generals who are absolutely not tied to Russia begin to seek her help, and the people take to the streets with our flags. For all this, Paris can only thank itself - they turn to the Russians because of their dislike for the French. And they deserved this dislike with their African policy, first of the colonial, and then of the post-colonial years. And no military intervention by one's own or someone else's hands will fix anything - and there won't be one in the end. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #1 Proxy war in Africa, what an innovation. About as original and surprising as any season four script of Three’s Company. |
| Posted by: Super Hose 2023-08-09 12:51 |