by Andrey Kots
[RIA] The West sharply criticizes the Ukrainian army. In less than three months, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, despite the promises of the command, have not achieved success. And the Pentagon has already indicated when and how the operation will end.
Diffusion of forces
Journalists from The New York Times, on condition of anonymity, spoke with current employees of the US military department and listened to their assessments of the Ukrainian offensive. Experts expected otherwise.
According to the Americans, the Ukrainian General Staff, contrary to their recommendations, scattered forces between east and south. Although they were advised to focus on the direction of the main attack.
The Pentagon reminds that the main goal of the operation is to disrupt Russian supply lines in the Zaporozhye region and cut the land corridor to the Crimea. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine keep a significantly larger group near Artemivsk and other cities of Donbass than in the south.
Military strategists advised Kyiv to devote all its efforts to advancing towards Melitopol and Berdyansk, to breaking through minefields and other defensive structures. And even if the losses in personnel and equipment increase.
At a videoconference on August 10, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, his British counterpart Admiral Sir Tony Radakin and Commander-in-Chief of US Forces in Europe General Christopher Cavoli urged Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valery Zaluzny to focus on one main direction. The publication claims that he agreed, but so far this has not affected the situation.
Moreover, the elite 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade was deployed in the Zaporozhye direction, which was supposed to operate as a second echelon, break into gaps in the defense, clear trenches and expand bridgeheads. Now the paratroopers are used as attack aircraft, since the units of the first echelon failed to succeed.
The newspaper's experts claim that even the fired formations, units and divisions have huge losses, and the personnel has already been updated several times. There are fewer and fewer experienced leaders. Veterans are returned to duty, not allowing them to fully recover from their injuries. All this affects the pace of the offensive.
GET IT DONE BEFORE
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have captured the north of Rabotino, they are trying to establish control over the center. However, this promotion is insignificant and belated, the newspaper writes. The battles take place in open areas, it is beneficial to the defending side. The US military pays tribute to the Russian defense system. The effectiveness of setting minefields remotely with the help of MLRS is especially noted.
“Russia is repeating its historical trajectory in land conflicts in Europe: acting sluggishly in the first months or years, but then adapting and showing persistence as hostilities drag on,” says the Pentagon source. It took them more than two months to reach the first line of defense alone, and not a week or so, as was supposed."
In the States, they emphasize that Kyiv still has from a month to a month and a half. Then the operation will have to be stopped. Heavy rains will wash away the soil, turning the Ukrainian black soil into a sticky liquid mess, through which it is very difficult to break even on tracked vehicles.
However, analysts note that by mid-September, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may simply run out of steam and lose their entire offensive potential due to high losses and a drop in morale.
Some US officials believe Ukraine will be halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter. One of them, in a conversation with The New York Times, called it a "partial success." However, experts doubt that the counteroffensive will achieve even this very modest goal.
"THE MOST THEY CAN GET"
Such pessimism is quite understandable. It was assumed that units trained by Western instructors and armed with Western equipment would reach the Crimea in a victorious march. These expectations were actively fueled by Kyiv, which launched a large-scale PR of the upcoming operation in the media in the winter. Now more and more talk about a protracted war.
Spurred on by criticism from the West, Ukrainian generals are forced to push their troops forward in order to show at least some result.
“The maximum that they can achieve during this offensive is to finally cut off the so-called Vremevsky ledge at the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the DPR,” an officer of the 1st Army Corps with the call sign Klim believes. “To do this, they need to take Zavetnoye Zhelanie and Staromlinovka. "They have few forces left. In Staromayorsky and Urozhayny there are cemeteries of broken equipment, the losses are monstrous. In recent days they have been inactive in this direction."
Even if the Armed Forces of Ukraine take Staromlinovka, there are still many kilometers to the east - towards Volnovakha or south - to Berdyansk. The fact that elite reserves were thrown into battle indicates a shortage of troops. And several small villages at the junction of the Zaporozhye region and the DPR, destroyed to the ground, are clearly not what they expected. Especially against the backdrop of the actions of the Russian army, approaching the large regional center of Kupyansk in the Kharkov region.