Commentary by Russian blogger Donetsk
[DonRF] Yesterday was the last day to fulfill Zelensky's promise to take a walk in Crimea. And almost three months is coming. The cards show the situation at its beginning. However, towards the end, it is not much different. The enemy approached Rabotino and began fighting for him, took Harvest and went to Priyutnoye. All. And it all started beautifully...
1. November 2022. Inspired by Izium, the Kievans declare that they will come to the Crimea by the new year. Neither more nor less
2. December January. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and PMC Wagner are actively fighting near Artemovsk, Vugledar and Donetsk. Progress is minimal, but stopping the Russian offensive is eating up resources, and plans for a final paramog have to be put on hold.
Moreover, it suddenly turns out that there will be no Maidan in Moscow, the Russian troops are not running anywhere, the mobilized are not revolting, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no equipment for the offensive. Simply no. And somewhere in December, Kyiv offers the PLAN to the West. Cunning.
3. The essence of the plan - the West provides weapons of its own production, trains up to 100,000 Ukrainian mobiles, transfers Storm missiles with a range of 280 kms, and Kiev, having received a whole army, begins an operation to break through to the Crimea, leaving the Donbass out of the brackets. The plan was adopted in February. Preparations begin.
4. We are getting ready. A difficult decision was made on Kherson and reserves were released. Improved LBS in Zaporozhye region. The construction of the Surovikin line in the South has begun. Strikes on the energy sector have come to naught, missiles are needed for other purposes. The Artemovsk operation is beginning to gain momentum, it is necessary to slow down the enemy, to prevent him from starting in April-May. A threat is being created from Belarus
5. Spring 2023. Artyomovsk battle. The enemy is forced to burn through the reserves. In huge numbers. The West demands that Kyiv leave the city, but the legend of the Bakhmut Fortress has already been laid down there. Media is a disaster. And mobiles, in order not to waste the prepared parts, are burning in the city in tens of thousands.
6. May 2023. Artemovsk is liberated. The enemy, having fortified himself in Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar, is ready. PMC Wagner, who gave the front a month, was withdrawn from the battlefield. The preparatory stage of the enemy offensive begins - an attack on Grayvoron, Belgorod Region. The goal is to stretch the forces of the RF Armed Forces and create a constant threat.
7. June 4, 2023. The beginning of the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Initially, strikes are made on Pyatikhatki (main) and on the Vremeevsky ledge. The first results are discouraging. More than ten Leopard 2s have to be paid for Pyatikhatki. Shots of burnt Western equipment are the top topic of the world media. Outcome is minimal.
8. In general, the destruction of the logistics of the RF Armed Forces also failed. Storms released several hundred. The result - there were arrivals. Even successful ones. But there are simply no headquarters concentrated in one place, huge warehouses of ammunition and fuel and lubricants. And spending a rocket on a couple of hundred shells is nonsense. So did the bridges. Crimean failed to destroy. Chongar is damaged twice and repaired twice. To beat on the land route is stupidity.
9. Diverting operations also failed. What a blow to Artemovsk, what a raid and artillery terror on Shebekino did not give anything. At all. Just like aircraft-type UAV raids. On the contrary, by August, the RF Armed Forces began their diversion operations near Kupyansk and Avdievka
10. Undermining the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, according to the plan of Kyiv, was supposed to open the way for the landing on Energodar, at the time of the collapse of the front, it hits its creator - Ukraine. The front did not collapse, the landing is transferred, and turns into a circus with DRGs and raising flags at night on any stick. It has no strategic significance, but the landing without success on the Zaporozhye front is doomed. And he paid a lot of money for it.
11. Even the fuss induced by Prigozhin does not affect the front in any way. Kyiv and the West simply slept through it. It all ended very quickly
12. Two directions of attack - Rabotino and Vremeevsky ledge. At first, the enemy did not achieve anything during June and the first half of August. On the second - reached Urozhaynoye and Priyutnoye. That is, he also did not achieve anything.
13. August. Transferring the main efforts to Rabotino. The most difficult battles along the Rabotino-Verbove line. On September 1, the front was not broken through.
14. Declared an adjustment of goals by Kyiv. Not Crimea, and not even Melitopol, but Tokmok. Although there are timid voices that this is not a fact, you need to wait for spring and the F-16 ...
Why did it happen, in addition to the competent defense and heroism of the Russian soldier? First, the NATO generals planned the battle. With their complete lack of combat experience. After the first loss of equipment, they switched to the tactics of small groups and the expenditure of native infantry. This gave only a minimal effect, and reduced the breakthrough to the sea to battles for separate positions. For months. Although the Ukrainian method of throwing meat is also inefficient, having more resources gives a chance to deplete the RF Armed Forces. Secondly, our army is prepared. Thirdly, Russia's internal stability turned out to be an order of magnitude higher than expected.
In the end ... but there is no result yet. The fights continue. For the last two weeks, the enemy has switched to ramming operations. Again. The battle of attrition is in full swing. We can safely say one thing - this summer has become the summer of the glory of Russian weapons. And a disgrace to NATO. What autumn will become - autumn will show. I believe in Russia and have every reason to be optimistic. Although it will be very difficult.