Text taken from the Telegram channel of Vatfor
There was talk about an alleged breakthrough of our main line of defense near Rabotino in the Orekhovo-Tokmak area and, as a result, a long-awaited turning point in the counteroffensive. It seems to us that there is no breakthrough or turning point, and here is why.
So, about two weeks ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine reached the front line of our defense east of Rabotino and since then they have been trying to do two things: expand the bridgehead and overcome this front line. From the map at the end of the post, you can see why you can’t throw all your strength forward: you get a deep and vulnerable gut, fraught with flank strikes and encirclement. Even the current penetration from this point of view is already dangerous, and that is why the enemy is storming Rabotino so desperately: the capture of this village and the surrounding heights will allow expanding the front to the left, eliminating the flank threat from this side.
At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing along the main line of defense to the right, towards Verbovoye. Apparently, the intention here is to force our troops north of Verbovoye to retreat in order not to be cut off. The goal is the same: to expand the bridgehead and eliminate the flank threat. Only after that it is possible to throw all forces down, to the south, to overcome the hill along which the line of defense passes.
There are several problems here. First, the offensive along the front, and even in the lowlands between the two commanding heights, makes vulnerable the flanks, which will stretch as they move forward. This could be fully observed to the west, near Staromayorsky and Urozhayny, where, in the same way, the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced where they could (along the lowlands), eventually got stuck and even rolled back.
Secondly, attempts to attack from a small foothold in three directions (forward and sideways) require three times as many forces and means that need to be delivered to the front line under shelling through the fields and the only country road. With this, judging by the daily shots of the destroyed equipment, there are problems.
But the most important thing is the slow pace. The concept of "breaking through the front" is appropriate when the bill goes to hours, maximum days. Then the enemy does not have time to react, and you can move on, breaking the defense and entering the operational space. It's like billiards, when a skillful player, without missing, can finish the game in minutes, without even giving the opponent a chance to hit back.
It's not like that here. The fighting near Rabotino has been going on for almost three months, and for the last month on the southern front - almost exclusively near Rabotino. During this time, the defenders can not only slowly bring up reserves, but also strengthen defensive lines, if necessary, build new ones, cover fresh minefields, and equip firing points. In a sense, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now in a worse position than they were three months ago: then they enjoyed the advantage of choosing the direction of the strike, but now that’s it, there’s no escape from the rut near Rabotino, and it’s very likely clear what and how they will do.
In order to develop success, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to multiply the advancing grouping. It is doubtful that they could not do this before and will be able to now without exposing other sectors of the front. Without a multiple amplification, even local success will lead to nothing: the goal of the operation is not Rabotino, not Verbovoye, and not even overcoming the first line of defense. The goal is to reach the sea, and it is as far away as it was three months ago. The Armed Forces of Ukraine had a chance in early June, in an attempt to make a sharp leap forward, and they did not realize it.
Now it is impossible to enter the operational space, as we advance, it will be filled with new frontiers and fortified areas, new impregnable workers. There is less and less time, ahead of autumn, rains and winter.
https://t.me/vatfor/8800 - zinc