by Oleg Krivoshapov
[REGNUM] Problems with fuel in several regions of Russia threaten to disrupt field work, said Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev . “ We need to solve this problem ... Now we will stop the harvest - and we will not be weeded out for winter crops. It will be a disaster , ”the head of the Ministry of Agriculture emphasized.
“A week ago, we were talking about the need for fuel and lubricants (fuel and lubricants) at some reduced price, because the price has risen a lot,” the minister recalled, speaking to deputies from two Duma committees - on agrarian issues and control.
Indeed, if three weeks ago a ton of diesel fuel in the Saratov region could cost 55 thousand rubles, now it is 72.2 thousand, wrote in the Telegram channel the Saratov United Russia deputy, a member of the State Duma Agrarian Committee Nikolai Pankov after the "price lawlessness" voters complained to him.
Now another, perhaps more serious problem, which Minister Patrushev could not fail to mention, has come to the fore. The problem is not only with the price of fuel, but also with its availability.
And if there is not enough fuel and lubricants, then this threatens to stop the harvest. Actually, the "catastrophe" that the head of the Ministry of Agriculture warned about.
The risk of fuel shortages at the end of the summer was also noted at gas stations.
In any case, in the last week of August, independent gas stations in the regions of the Siberian Federal District reported about running out of gasoline stocks, Kommersant reported . It was stated that in some regions the fuel stocks were estimated by market participants as sufficient for 5-7 days. However, on September 6, the same publication reported that, at least, at the gas stations of the Krasnoyarsk Territory and Khakassia, there was no longer a problem - which was reported in the Krasnoyarsknefteprodukt gas station network.
Why is this happening
“In addition to the rise in fuel prices on the exchange, as well as the gradual rise in price of both gasoline and diesel in retail, we see a certain deficit,” Igor Yushkov , an expert at the Financial University under the Government and the National Energy Security Fund, agreed in a commentary to IA Regnum . Moreover, judging by his words, the deficit was observed in the southern regions.
News about fuel shortages in August-September is a common thing, the expert noted. But the situation this year, according to him, is not quite normal. And it was the result of a combination of several factors.
“Prices for oil and oil products in foreign markets went up, and the ruble weakened, ” Yushkov lists. “ It turns out that these factors make it much more profitable to export oil and oil products than to supply them to the domestic market.”
Also played a role is what economists call the "damper mechanism", or simply "damper".
Its essence is as follows: if high prices for gasoline are established abroad, then the state encourages oil companies not to raise prices within the country. To do this, companies are paid from the budget part of the premium (that is, revenue), which they lose due to the fact that they do not raise prices. If the prices for gasoline inside the country are higher than export prices, the oilmen themselves transfer money to the budget.
In Russia, the “damper” has been operating since 2019, recalls the Russian edition of Forbes.
But now payments on the "damper" to oil companies are halved, and therefore they gradually began to look for opportunities to export more fuel, Yushkov said. Consequently, there is less fuel in the domestic market.
And the demand is growing.
This also applies to motor gasoline. After the “COVID” 2020, as Yushkov points out, the demand for automotive fuel has strengthened: people began to travel more in personal cars. In 2022, the closure of a number of airports was added to this. Road trips have become even more intense.
“There has always been an increase in demand for fuel in the summer, during the car season, and also because of the harvesting campaign, which “pulls” large volumes. But the demand is now especially strong, and the supply on the market has not yet adapted,” Yushkov notes.
Over the past year, another, extremely important reason for the particularly strong demand for "fuel" has appeared. “We understand that a special military operation requires a lot of fuel, primarily diesel ,” Yushkov said.
“Let's not forget that we have a very large consumer, the NWO zone, which is supplied in priority,” agrees Pavel Bazhenov, president of the Independent Fuel Union, in a comment to IA Regnum.
Another reason is logistics, experts say.
“ They simply don’t have time to deliver the fuel, ” Yushkov believes. - There is a very large demand, but Russian Railways is not in time somewhere, there is a certain downtime, because, in principle, the loading of railways is very large. At the same time, the railways have not yet fully adapted to the new logistical realities.”
“Now there are supply interruptions, logistical problems,” Bazhenov agrees and explains, “we have the main volume of fuel delivered by Russian Railways, and if earlier we had all the infrastructure focused on deliveries to the west, the main consumer was Europe and everyone else in that direction, but now these directions are changing to the south and east."
The situation in the southern direction, according to the expert, is generally a special issue.
“We have a very actively developed agricultural sector there, and in general the situation is complicated by a whole range of reasons, ” he says. “ There are also export flows along a thin railway line, and the tourist season plays a role, albeit to a lesser extent.”
But it is also obvious that in a special period, the issue of supplying the country with bread and other products (moreover, of its own production, and not exported) is especially acute and the likelihood of a “catastrophe” due to interruptions in fuel and lubricants becomes a very serious challenge.
What to do with it
The head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Patrushev, proposes a radical solution: to suspend the export of petroleum products until the situation stabilizes.
The fact is that only 50% of the fuel produced is used for domestic consumption, the rest is exported, Bazhenov explained. There is no underproduction of diesel in Russia, he added. On the contrary, its production is twice as much as consumption, so there is no shortage and is not expected, Bazhenov pointed out.
Consequently, we see a shortage of precisely "goods" for the domestic market.
But a complete suspension or, even more so, a ban on the export of motor fuel would be too drastic a step, experts say. What the authorities may well do is to ban the sale of fuel abroad to those firms that are not involved in the production of fuel, Bazhenov said.
"It was possible to observe the purchase of fuel on the stock exchange with subsequent export ," the interlocutor of IA Regnum explained . It is quite possible to "shorten" these dealers.
In fact, such measures are already being taken.
On September 6, Interfax reported that the Ministry of Energy had submitted to the government and presidential administration a draft decree banning the "gray" export of petroleum products. This document, which allows only refineries to export oil products, is in the final stage of approval.
In the meantime, the ministry assures that fuel companies are meeting the needs of farmers.
“We will be given this fuel as a priority,” First Deputy Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut said on September 6.