Text taken from the Telegram channel of PanzerWaffle
[ColonelCassad] A sign with Ukrainian Armed Forces artillery losses for 2023 is being distributed across the Internet. Since it was compiled on the basis of extremely inaccurate data, we consider it necessary to make a number of clarifications.
1. According to the Military Balance, as of the beginning of 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had more than 1,994 units of cannon artillery, mortars and rocket artillery in combat units. Of these, barrel artillery and mortars - 1,544 units.
An unknown number of artillery systems were in the NSU, coastal defense, marines and air assault units.
It is also unknown the exact number of systems in storage. Military Balance gives only the number of 2S7 “Peony”, 83 units.
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2. According to the schedule, in 2023 alone, 1,863 Soviet-type artillery systems and 494 systems of foreign origin were destroyed. A total of 2,357 units.
That is, in 2023, more field artillery and Soviet-type mortars were allegedly destroyed than the Ukrainian Armed Forces had before the war.
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3. Foreign 155mm caliber artillery was promised 544 units. But promising does not mean delivering; in fact, delivery of approximately 250-260 units has been confirmed.
Artillery and mortars of other calibers were promised 240 units, 117 were delivered.
A total of 784 units were promised, 367-377 units were delivered.
Thus, more foreign artillery was allegedly destroyed in 2023 alone than was sent during the entire conflict.
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4. It can be assumed that, starting in 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were gradually removed from storage and Soviet-type systems were transferred to the troops. To some extent, this assumption is true.
However, at the same time in Ukraine there was a destruction of the capabilities of the military-industrial complex and the destruction of combat systems.
Since the whole process was spread out over a year and a half, it turns out that if it was possible to exceed the number of 2 thousand systems in service, then for some short moment, when revenues covered the decline. But, mainly, the purpose of commissioning systems from storage was to compensate for wear and combat losses. Most likely, by the beginning of 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not have 1,863 Soviet-type artillery systems and mortars in service.
This hypothesis is confirmed ( https://t.me/panzwaffle/2245) and Cancian, who in January 2023 noted the shortage of 122mm and 152 mm ammunition and the decline in the value of Soviet-type artillery.
What conclusions can be drawn from all this?
Any numbers should be treated with a certain degree of caution and attentiveness.
For example, MO statistics - on the basis of which the graph was drawn up - provide generalized data in an extremely inconvenient form. For example, it combines tanks with other armored fighting vehicles, and writes “field artillery pieces and mortars” into artillery.
In other words, the final figure could include anything that is not an MLRS, from a 60mm mortar to a 203mm Pion. Apparently all guntrucks, self-propelled mortars, as well as large-caliber anti-aircraft artillery, such as Bofors or S-60, go there. Maybe even pickup trucks with chargers are included, since the Ministry of Defense takes into account only anti-aircraft missile systems separately, but not cannon ones.
Separately, let us note that the mere inclusion of any enemy artillery system in this report can mean anything: from the barrel being scratched and the knurling being pierced (and so on several times) to “exploded and smashed.” But in general, the number of irrecoverable losses should be cautiously assumed to be a multiple of less than the number declared.
We would not draw any conclusions based on such unclear data, at least without double-checking for sure.
https://t.me/panzwaffle/2292 - zinc