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| What did 'Rocket Kim' bring? The West is waiting for “rain of steel” for Ukraine |
| 2023-09-13 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Mikhail Zakharov [REGNUM] On the morning of September 12, the armored train in which North Korean leader Kim Jong-un went on a visit to Russia from Pyongyang crossed the border with Russia in the south of Primorye, media reported. Later, information about the arrival of the North Korean leader was confirmed by the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov . It was previously reported that Kim plans to hold a number of meetings in our country, one of which, presumably, with Russian President Vladimir Putin , who, we recall, is now at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok. For the current North Korean leader, who inherited power from his father, Kim Jong Il, in 2011, this will be only the second known visit to Russia. But the attention of the world media is focused on his trip not because of the frequency of travel of the “leader of the party, army and people” or their extravagance. Although, of course, the luxurious train on which the leader of the DPRK travels to Vladivostok attracts attention. FORECAST: “STEEL RAIN” The most likely topic for discussion among journalists and experts is the sale and purchase of military technologies and ammunition, with Western media focusing on Russia’s purchase of weapons, allegedly because of the devastated North Military District warehouses. “The topic under discussion is the sale of ammunition to Moscow,” writes The Financial Times. “No one expected that there would be such a huge expenditure of shells. The conflict in Ukraine has shown that we need high-tech weapons much less than a large number of very cheap weapons,” The Washington Post quotes political scientist Sergei Markov. “ Very serious negotiations are underway, and if Kim comes, it will mean that they have already agreed.” I would argue that Russian expenditure of artillery shells is a major departure from top down Soviet supply planning. “North Korean ammunition could provide Russian troops with not entirely sufficient, but useful support,” an article with this title was published by Reuters on the day of the North Korean leader’s visit to Russia. The tone of the publications is as follows: the Kremlin wants to get more ammunition from the DPRK, since Russia's reserves are depleted, North Korea remains Moscow's only hope. “North Korean weapons will allow Russia to prolong the rain of steel it has rained down on Ukraine, but they are probably not advanced enough to change the course of the fighting,” writes Bloomberg. Agency sources believe: “Ammunition from North Korea could buy time for Russia and give its domestic industry a chance to catch up with demand.” The topic of Russia's purchase of North Korean weapons has been relished more than once by the Western press. Just a year ago , The New York Times , citing US intelligence, wrote that “ Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and missiles from North Korea, a sign that global sanctions have severely constrained its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to military supplies.” to rogue states." "SHELL" FOR THE JUCHE COUNTRY Everything quoted above is nothing more than speculation. It is significant that Kim’s armored train is also carrying the deputy head of the Central Military Committee, Lee Byung Chol, and an extensive military-industrial delegation. It is believed that the DPRK is showing interest in Russian space technologies (especially against the backdrop of the recent second unsuccessful attempt to launch a reconnaissance satellite), air defense systems, such as the S-300 and Pantsir MANPADS, as well as missile technologies. TASS, citing the American Center for Strategic and International Studies Beyond Parallel, reports: the DPRK military may test launch a submarine-launched ballistic missile on a new submarine equipped with nuclear weapons. Missile secrets will certainly be useful to Pyongyang if it modernizes its existing submarines and equips them with nuclear missiles. The construction of a missile-carrying boat in the DPRK is just one of the steps in the North Korean submarine program, military expert Ilya Kramnik believes. “If the assumption is correct that the new boat is rather an experimental model, then we can expect that the submarines following it will have other architectural solutions that further reduce visibility,” explains the expert. “First of all, a larger hull diameter, which makes it possible to remove the launchers inside and improve the hydrodynamic characteristics of the boat, as well as make wider use of noise reduction means such as shock-absorbing platforms and vibration-isolating foundations of mechanisms.” Note that Russia has a rich history of building and modernizing its submarine fleet, and many of these technologies have been well developed by Russian specialists. At the same time, it is unlikely that Russia will openly transfer nuclear technology to Pyongyang, experts say. Firstly, Russia will not transfer them to anyone, and secondly, such a decision could lead to completely unpredictable consequences for the security of the region. Such a step is too risky in the current situation. Let's leave it to The New York Times and its writers to think that " Russia will provide technological support to North Korea's nuclear and missile programs in exchange for North Korean munitions, such as the artillery shells that Russia needs for its war in Ukraine." Let us recall that UN Security Council Resolution 1718 of October 14, 2006 prohibits “ the supply, sale or transfer to the DPRK of any military equipment and weapons, as well as materials, equipment, goods and technologies that can be used in North Korean programs to create weapons of mass destruction. ” The question remains how neighboring countries will react to the transfer of highly sensitive technologies to Pyongyang. DRONES AND PEOPLE'S VOLUNTEERS As for the exchange of military-industrial complex products, Russia may be interested in supplies of North Korean drones like Saetbyol-4 and Saetbyol-9b, copies of American drones RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper, cannon and rocket artillery, spare parts for it, and artillery shells. Military expert Yuri Lyamin previously told IA Regnum about this . He noted that North Korea has sufficient industrial capacity to produce drones, guns and ammunition for them. “No matter what the skeptics say, the DPRK has been exporting arms for a very long time - more than half a century. Moreover, the production of weapons for sale is carried out on an industrial scale,” the expert noted. One of the most pressing topics is, of course, the participation of Korean volunteers in the Northern Military District. Such information regularly appears in the media and also regularly receives refutations. Of course, it may be that after the upcoming negotiations, military personnel or volunteers from among the citizens of the DPRK will declare their desire to join the Russian Armed Forces, but for now the Korean People's Army ensures the security of its own country. The Russian side has repeatedly emphasized that it does not need foreign supplies to conduct air defense in Ukraine, since the domestic defense industry is coping with its tasks, and North Korea has emphasized that it has never supplied Russia with weapons and does not plan to do so, but it’s worth waiting - perhaps the countries will decide neglect the resolutions of the UN Security Council, which are especially emphasized by Western countries. Western commentators, however, are confident that the Russian president and the leader of the DPRK will discuss both military supplies and an increase in the number of North Korean “guest workers” in Russia. RAW MATERIALS, MACHINES AND LABOR The Washington Post writes about this, in particular. According to the publication, a large number of workers from the DPRK will help generate much-needed foreign currency for North Korea. This will supposedly be beneficial to the Russian side, since, as the authors of the material believe, our economy is experiencing a shortage of workers due to the increase in defense production and the participation of many able-bodied Russians in the military defense system. Here, however, their forecast may be justified, Vasily Kashin does not rule out. Importing North Korean labor was indeed an important area for both countries, at least before the imposition of sanctions in 2017 and further until the COVID-19 quarantine. Perhaps the practice will be restored following a meeting between the two leaders. Beyond the products of the military-industrial complex and labor migration resources, countries also have something to interest each other, Vasily Kashin, senior researcher at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told IA Regnum. “North Korea is, if we talk about civilian areas, a manufacturer of some types of industrial equipment, quite modern,” the expert pointed out. — And if we talk about dual-use products, they will probably supply some types of raw materials and semi-finished products for military production, which, in general, we are now importing from other countries. They have a demand for our industrial equipment, transport equipment and, accordingly, energy and food.” WHITE HOUSE WARNS 'ROCKET KIM' Judging by publications in the world press, the West is warning the Pyongyang “outcast” (“missile Kim” showed himself to be quite capable of negotiations in 2019, during a historic meeting with Donald Trump ) against too close contacts with Russia. “Giving weapons to Russia will not reflect well on North Korea, and it will pay a price in the international community,” Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned last week. In addition, judging by the tone of Western media publications, they are trying to convince North Korea’s neighbors (which includes South Korea and Pyongyang’s main patron, China) of the potential danger of Russian-North Korean contacts. But, experts say, the nervous reaction conveyed by Sullivan has become yet another clear proof that the United States is losing control of the situation in certain regions of the world—in this case, East Asia. Politically, a meeting between the two leaders will be a good step towards reducing US influence in the region. This is not about what someone wants to get, but about discussing a strategic problem related to a common threat, Korean scholar Konstantin Asmolov told IA Regnum . CONFRONTATION OF TWO TRIANGLES At the same time, the expert notes, the White House is using the very fact of contact between two equally hostile leaders for the United States to mobilize American allies in the region. “Despite the loud cries, “oh horror, Russia and North Korea are probably selling weapons, there is no evidence, but we already understand everything,” the formation of an “Asian NATO” is underway - the Washington-Tokyo-Seoul triangle,” Asmolov said. This configuration is being built as a counterweight to another triangle, Moscow - Pyongyang - Beijing, the expert explained. The union of the three Far Eastern neighbors is now taking shape forcedly, due to pressure from the United States, but in any case, there is a rapprochement between Russia, China and the main Chinese ward in the region - the DPRK, Asmolov argues. It is likely that a trilateral summit will be required to consolidate cooperation, the expert does not rule out. Pyongyang does not want to limit itself only to its traditional ally, China, and therefore is looking for new formats and aspects of interaction, Kashin, for his part, notes. North Korea “ understands that if they reach a new level of interaction with Russia in the military and civilian sphere, their position in relations with all other partners will be strengthened. Now it is a definite problem for them that all their trade is essentially directed to China - this is 90% of trade turnover ,” the expert comments. |
| Posted by:badanov |