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| 'It’s time for Sevastopol to wake up.' Preventive measures will help protect the fleet |
| 2023-09-14 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Sergey Adamov [REGNUM] On the night of September 12-13, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on Sevastopol. The target was the Ordzhonikidze shipyard, where warships and submarines of the Black Sea Fleet were being repaired. Judging by the official statement of the Ministry of Defense, ten cruise missiles were fired at the plant. Seven of them were shot down on approach by air defense forces. The military department also stated that two ships that were being repaired were damaged. In addition, the ships of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed three Ukrainian surface drones - unmanned boats that tried to enter the bay of Sevastopol. Footage of one of the damaged ships has appeared on the Internet, presumably the large landing ship of Project 775 Minsk. There is also information that a diesel-electric submarine of Project 636, capable of striking with Caliber cruise missiles, was damaged. CHOOSING GOALS AND MEANS From the statement of the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Nikolai Oleschuk, we can conclude : the attack used Storm Shadow, British long-range air-launched cruise missiles supplied to Ukraine. The attack on Sevastopol could indeed be carried out using Storm Shadow (or their French version of SCALP), military expert, author of the Telegram channel “Russian Engineer” Alexey Vasiliev told IA Regnum. According to his assessment, the strike was carried out by Su-24 bombers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the Starokonstantinov base in the Khmelnitsky region. “There were five planes, each carrying two Storm Shadow missiles,” the expert explained. Our air defense responded normally, Vasiliev emphasizes. “The missile launch was detected in advance, everyone was ready, thanks to which some of the missiles were shot down on approach,” the military expert pointed out. “There can be no complaints about air defense here, because no air defense guarantees 99.99% protection.” The expert noted that Storm Shadow missiles are a difficult target for air defense systems; they have jamming systems and fly at ultra-low altitudes, so they are not easy to detect. Moreover, according to a number of Ukrainian media, a combined strike was carried out on the base in Sevastopol. Before launching cruise missiles, the bombers launched S-200 anti-aircraft missiles. These “anti-missiles” from the air defense system were converted by the Ukrainians into an attack weapon for striking ground targets. It was this maneuver that supposedly made it possible to “deceive” Russian air defense systems. The Ordzhonikidze Severmorozvod was chosen as a target for the strike due to the fact that ships undergoing repairs could not escape the impending strike, Vasilyev explained. Warships and vessels in Sevastopol Bay change their location when a missile launch is detected, but a strike on factory docks can guarantee the result. NATO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MONITORED THE STRIKE It is possible that NATO reconnaissance aircraft were indirectly involved in the operation. According to the European monitoring service ItaMilRadar , the day before the strike on Sevastopol, NATO reconnaissance aircraft were observed in the western part of the Black Sea. 300–350 kms from Sevastopol, two RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic reconnaissance aircraft were spotted at once: US Air Force aircraft 62-4131 with the call sign JAKE11 and a British Air Force aircraft with the call sign ZZ665. Both aircraft took off from RAF Mildenhall and were operating on the same mission. Their specialization: searching for sources of electromagnetic radiation based on land, sea and air. Immediately after the attack, on the morning of September 13, an RQ-4B reconnaissance drone with the call sign FORTE10 flew to the Crimean coast. “In principle, they could participate,” Vasiliev believes. - If they provide coverage of the situational situation regarding the presence of our aircraft in the air, which are engaged in interception. They can notify the Ukrainian Armed Forces in order to select the optimal time for an attack to launch missiles. But there the target is known, static, so they didn’t need guidance.” TANGIBLE DAMAGE Official sources have not yet reported the condition of the damaged warships. In any case, it will not be possible to compensate for even a temporary failure soon. As the former commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Vladimir Komoyedov, explained to IA Regnum, the situation for the Black Sea Fleet is complicated by the fact that some of the ships that are regularly included in the fleet cannot return due to Turkey’s position in the Black Sea straits. Earlier, Turkey announced its intention not to allow warships of both Russia and Ukraine into the Black Sea until the end of the conflict. “As I understand it, we are talking about the old-built landing ship Minsk, this is a significant loss,” Admiral Komoyedov commented on reports of damage. “The situation is such that we can count the landing ships in our Navy on our fingers. “Minsk” is a Polish-built Project 775 ship; now there won’t be any new ones like this. New ships are now being made in Kaliningrad, but there are not enough of them.” So, this is a loss for the fleet, because the ability to transport goods, and first of all, to transport troops, is reduced, the admiral stated. And new ships will not appear, because the Black Sea “gates”, the straits, are closed, Komoyedov added. PREVENTIVE PROTECTION IS A REAL BUT DIFFICULT TASK The attack on the Sevastopol Marine Plant once again raises the question of the need to improve the protection of the city and its waters from air strikes. This problem must be solved comprehensively, Admiral Komoyedov emphasized. “It’s time for Sevastopol to wake up. The ships should be protected, because the crews cannot be blamed here - the ships were docked ,” the interlocutor pointed out. - So there must be a comprehensive, layered defense. It didn’t matter whose missiles were made—USA, British, German—they had to be shot down on the approaches. On the third, fourth, fifth line of defense, in the end. The blows continue, and it is clear that our shortcomings, our shortcomings are now being returned to us.” A preventive means of protection against missile strikes could be the destruction of aircraft carrying Storm Shadow cruise missiles and their bases. Previously, the Starokonstantinov airfield was repeatedly hit by missile attacks, but some Su-24 aircraft equipped to use NATO cruise missiles still remain in service. But, as Alexey Vasiliev notes, in the current conditions there is no solution to this problem that would guarantee a 100% result. “Only 10–12 of them have been converted, that is, not many at all,” the expert estimated the number of Su-24s in the enemy air force. “But the fact is that the base in Starkonstantinov was equipped with concrete shelters for aircraft back in Soviet times; it’s difficult to hit them precisely.” You need to catch the plane so that it is not in cover. In addition, the presence of hangars makes reconnaissance difficult. Whether he is there or not in the shelter is unclear.” NATO assistance also plays a role, Vasiliev added. When we launch weapons of destruction, NATO records this and notifies Ukraine. “The existing aircraft take off, so by the time the missile arrives the airfield is already empty. Restoring the airfield takes 2–3 days. Then it can be used again, that is, it will not be disabled for a long time,” the expert noted. Even a synchronized strike on all Ukrainian Air Force airfields does not allow all existing aircraft to be destroyed in the air; they operate at ultra-low altitudes, hide as much as possible and land at alternate airfields equipped on highways, Vasiliev added. Therefore, for now, the only way to eliminate the threat of cruise missiles remains the destruction of carrier aircraft in the air immediately at the moment of the strike, the expert summarizes. In the future, the situation with the use of cruise missiles by the Ukrainian Air Force may become even more complicated. In 2024, the first F-16 aircraft supplied from the reserves of NATO countries should arrive in Ukraine. In addition, Ukraine is negotiating with Germany on the supply of Taurus cruise missiles with a range of over 500 km. According to CNN , the White House is also close to transferring ATACMS tactical missiles to Ukrainian troops, which will further increase their ability to strike Russian territory. |
| Posted by:badanov |