[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- TALIBAN INTELLIGENCE DEPARTMENT REPORTEDLY HACKED – According to several online anti-Taliban outlets, the General Directorate of Intelligence in the Ministry of the Interior has been hacked and a steady stream of documents is already being leaked online. One of the outlets on X (formerly Twitter), called @TalibLeaks began releasing some of the official-looking correspondence between Taliban agencies yesterday. The group says they have hundreds of communication documents and plans to begin circulating them on Telegram soon. A source in Kabul says the hack was extensive and the Minister for the Interior has directed the GDI to use ‘misinformation’ to attempt to control the damage that may be coming. The source said that some of the leaks include documents in both Pashto and Chinese that detail security discussions between Chinese advisors and the Ministry of the Interior. It is thought that these documents could be embarrassing to China. Some of the leaked documents put on display show a heavy reliance on written communication by GDI agents and there is speculation that the agency lacks personnel who are familiar with technology.
- FORMER AFGHAN ARMY SPECIAL FORCES REPUTEDLY READY TO SUPPORT THE NATIONAL RESISTANCE FRONT – A video circulating on social media that has been attributed to the leadership of the remaining elements of the Afghan Special Forces under the Republic states that remnants of the organization have joined the NRF and will operate in Kandahar, Helmand, Ghazni, and Maidan Wardak. Estimates of the troop strength available in the country vary widely from a few hundred to well over one thousand. If this information is true, it represents a definite increase in the capabilities available to the NRF and likely a morale boost as well.
- RECENTLY ANNOUNCED YOUTH PROGRAM WILL ONLY FOCUS ON MALES – A new program that is being bandied about by the Ministry of Information and Culture promises to ‘reform’ how the youth of Afghanistan can negotiate the difficult economic situation in the country. However, a source in Kabul says the program will only be offered to males and will primarily focus on orienting youth to approach their professional careers with an ‘Islamic mindset’. The man in charge of the program, Deputy Minister of Youth Mohammad Yunus Rashed reportedly has no record of academic or business experience. The source said the program is akin to the ‘religious training’ provided to Taliban military recruits which consumes roughly 80% of a Taliban recruit's basic training. Rashed has caged the program as a means of repairing the damage done to Afghanistan’s youth during the 19-year occupation by foreign troops.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Kunduz A relatively new resistance group, the Basij National Front, announced it has launched an ambush of a Taliban convoy in the Ali Abad district. The BNF claims to have killed 1 Tqliban fighter and wounded an additional 2 fighters in the action.
NEXT 24 HOURS
POSSIBLE TROUBLE BREWING IN BAMYAN – Several reports have surfaced that indicate the ‘nomads’ who have been resettled in the Province have continued to threaten the Hazara population and recently cut down several trees near a school in the Vers District and then threatened Hazara leaders who attempted to intervene with threats of violence. Previous clashes have been reported between Hazara communities and Kuchi tribesmen since mid-2022. The Taliban have intermittently intervened on both sides of these disputes and have sometimes found themselves being threatened by one side or the other. While no direct threat has been received in Bamyan, recent history dictates taking a cautious approach and at-risk Afghans residing in the District should take care to avoid potential hotspots between these groups.
Daily Evacuation Brief | October 2, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- DISSECTING THE TALIBAN FOREIGN MINISTER’S STATEMENT AT THE MOSCOW FORMAT – At the conclusion of the Moscow Format meeting, Minister of Foreign Affairs Muttaqi read out a statement to the attendees which attempted to address concerns that have continued to be raised about the de facto regime’s governance over 2022-23. The statement paints a very heroic picture of the Taliban’s quest to assume leadership of the country. Some of the criticisms leveled at the US and international community are completely valid but several of the claims he makes are questionable. While not absolving Russia from blame during the Soviet occupation, Muttaqi chose to focus on the last twenty years as the main culprit behind Afghanistan’s weakened state. It is important to note that many of the chief concerns voiced by other states in attendance at the meeting were not directly addressed. We felt it would be valuable to list the issues that Muttaqi specifically chose to bring up:
- Security is Restored - This point has been debated by analysts and observers virtually from the day the Taliban took power. While the regime enjoyed a brief honeymoon period events over the last two years do not seem to indicate that citizens feel a sense of security. Likewise, neighbor states have never deviated from assertions that the security situation in Afghanistan is a major concern.
- Open to Investment - This point is strongly related to the first, but we agree that the Taliban have attempted to foster an ‘investment friendly’ environment. Provided one is a male.
- Eradicating the Drug Trade - While poppy cultivation has certainly been curtailed, it is not clear how effective the Taliban’s anti-narcotics operations have been. Neighboring states (Tajikistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, et al) have continued to intercept sizable drug shipments that were said to have emanated from within Afghanistan. A new report suggests that methamphetamine production has now supplanted opium and is being sent across borders in increasing quantities.
- Foreign Engagement Increasing - Muttaqi claimed that political and diplomatic engagement has increased substantially over the previous two years. He emphasized that regional states have been instrumental in this regard. China’s appointment of a new ambassador was trotted out and held up as a model for other countries to follow. Muttaqi gives the impression that his Ministry is somehow responsible for achieving this ‘quasi’ recognition. However, the record clearly shows that most of the diplomatic engagement with neighbors and others has been prompted by crisis situations. The Taliban regime remains an outlier in the international community and clearly does not have a seat at the table among regional states.
- Tourists, Journalists, Diplomats, and Aid Workers Freely Roam Afghanistan - This is another point that is hard to evaluate. There have been constant assertions from the Taliban that tourists have begun coming to the country in the tens of thousands but it is difficult to substantiate these claims. Most reports from those who have visited/worked in Afghanistan under the Taliban rule are not encouraging and suggest that very few are able to ‘roam freely’ in the country.
- POLICE ROUND UP APPROXIMATELY 800 AFGHANS IN ISLAMABAD – In an unprecedented operation, Pakistani police began a major roundup of Afghan citizens in Islamabad that netted approximately 800 people. According to news reports, more than half of the Afghans who were brought in were determined to possess legal documentation and were allowed to go free. Roughly 370 lacked passports and were said to be marked for deportation. The police operations were reported in the following neighborhoods: Bahara Kahu, Tarlai, Meherabadaiyan, Golra, and Kalani Shams. There are conflicting reports from many of those who were arrested over what documents were checked to verify legal status in Pakistan. Most said that the possession of a valid passport was enough to gain their release. However, others said they had their visas scrutinized. We have confirmed that some of those picked up in the operation were released with expired visas and were told by police that new applications would need to be made or they could be deported. We are waiting for additional information from sources and contacts in Pakistan to determine if this activity will continue and for clarity on what Pakistani authorities are looking for with regard to ‘legal’ status.
- MINISTER FOR HIGHER EDUCATION SAYS MEN AND WOMEN NOT EQUAL – During a conference at Baghlan University, the acting Minister, Neda Mohammad Nadim, said “A male is the ruler, he has the authority, he must be obeyed, and the woman must accept his word.” While the Minister has attempted to portray himself as a sometimes moderate, his words clearly enunciate the Deobandist school of thought so prevalent among the Taliban’s senior leadership ranks. Some leaders from the former regime used the Minister’s words to cast doubt on previous remarks that ‘a curriculum for female students’ was in development.
Ultimately, the Moscow Format seems to have been a scolding session for the Taliban, and Muttaqi’s attempts to spin things to the positive end of the spectrum will likely fail. The lack of an inclusive government (never mind an elected and representative government), the continued oppression of women, and the suspected presence of multiple terrorist groups sheltering in the country will outweigh such counterpoints.
NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN ROUNDUPS – We are advising all at-risk Afghans in Pakistan to avoid going out of their residences for the next few days. It is not currently clear how long, or how widespread this new policy will be enforced. We encourage evacuating groups to maintain contact with their people in Afghanistan on a daily basis if at all possible. If one does have to leave a residence, they should make sure others know where they are going and carry their documents with them (digital photos at a minimum).