...a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...came at dawn and murdered with abandon. It had the element of surprise. Israel was unprepared . This was unprecedented. Israel’s security barrier breached; Israeli communities and military bases overrun; territory conquered; and horrific casualties inflicted. Yet the consequences of its actions may ultimately spell Hamas’ demise. Did its leaders not game this scenario? The answer, likely, is that they did and miscalculated. By misreading Israel, the United States, and, possibly, their very own paymasters in Iran, they may have lit a fire that will now engulf them.
But first things first. From Hamas’ point of view, the attack was an unmitigated success, probably more than expected. The operation, carefully planned for months, was kept a tight secret. Israeli intelligence appears to have completely missed the clues. More importantly: Hamas went where no other terror group had ventured before. It conquered, albeit briefly, Israeli territory, rampaged for hours, challenged only by scant Israeli security presence, slaughtered hundreds, and herded survivors back to Gaza. In Israel, the shock will reverberate for a long time.
Here, too, this was a game changer. Hamas, like Hezbollah and the PLO in the past, previously used Israeli hostages (dead or alive) as leverage. But this time, Hamas — coached, funded, and armed by its Iranian paymasters — had a more grandiose plan: not just to fundamentally alter the dynamics of its conflict with Israel, but to set the region on fire. It hopes to open new fronts that have not materialized yet. Hezbollah has not launched a full assault on Israel’s north. The West Bank has not joined in. Israel’s Arab population has not taken to the streets, like it did in the first weeks of the Second Intifadah, 23 years ago, though recent echoes of those clashes make it a possible scenario. All that could still change. It is a high-stakes game that could cripple Israel with mass casualties and loss of territory.