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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| As predicted. A new type of war was born in the world |
| 2023-10-27 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Vadim Bondar [REGNUM] What began on October 7 and continues to this day is being called by many observers and experts, including the Israelis themselves, an unprecedented Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. Some call what happened a well-prepared and brilliantly carried out sabotage and reconnaissance raid from a military point of view. But this is not entirely true, since both the first and second have a very limited and clearly defined goal, upon achievement or failure of which the act or raid is terminated. In addition, for various reasons, the resources and resources allocated for such actions are quite limited. In this case, Israel was faced with a completely new phenomenon for itself, namely the escalation of terrorism into a full-scale insurgency . Back in 1960, a book by the Russian military theorist Evgeniy Messner entitled “Rebellion is the name of the third world war” was published in Buenos Aires, in which he gave a detailed description of this phenomenon and made his prediction that classical terrorism will evolve into a rebellious war with all the negative consequences for those against whom it will be directed. Obviously, in the near future this will be one of the ways to develop military and military-political thought and practice. Natalya Melentyeva gives a very important and in its own way significant definition of terrorism in her article “Reflections on Terrorism”: “Terrorism is the conscious use of illegitimate violence (most often with a deliberate focus on a spectacular, dramatic nature) on the part of some minority group thereby striving to achieve certain goals that are obviously unattainable in a legitimate way . ” “From this definition it follows that the violence carried out by terrorists is directly related to the limitation of socio-political means to achieve the goal,” she further writes. This is the objective-subjective basis, the ideological foundation of terror, practiced for many years by radical Palestinian groups. They argued (and now continue to argue) that, firstly, the state of Israel is illegitimate by definition, since it was created by the political will of the powers that be on their land, and the state promised to them has not yet been created, which in itself is extremely unfair . Secondly, the Palestinians live so poorly because Israel exists in its current form. Finally, thirdly, they do not have a state, which means they have no legitimate armed forces, no money to equip them, and, therefore, the only way to fight illegitimate Israel, blatant injustice and double standards can only be terrorism. A number of experts, confirming Melentyeva’s thesis, directly say: why is Arab and radical Muslim terrorism not widespread in the United States, although there are a sufficient number of both, including followers of orthodox views and sympathizers of Palestine? Because they have socio-political means, in their opinion, sufficient to achieve vital goals. But the Palestinians don’t have those. On October 24, this was partly confirmed by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, saying at a UN Security Council meeting: “It is also important to recognize that Hamas attacks did not occur in a vacuum. The Palestinian people have been subjected to a suffocating occupation for 56 years.” And on October 25, the leader of the NATO member country Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said the same thing. In his speech at the Grand National Assembly to widespread applause, he said that Turkey does not consider the Palestinian movement Hamas a terrorist organization, calling its members “a group of mujahideen (fighters for a just, sacred cause) defending their lands.” But terrorism, even when it spread beyond the region, notably when Palestinians kidnapped Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972, did not bring the results expected by its organizers and minority groups. The USSR's war in Afghanistan gave terrorism a new, state-based content. Western countries led by the USA, Pakistan and Maoist China actively participated in comprehensive support of the Mujahideen. These were not only supplies of everything in the world, from weapons to intelligence and communications equipment, but also active work among the terrorists by intelligence officers, diplomatic, information and PR support and accompaniment. Terrorism has risen to a qualitatively new level of equipment and preparation, and also, which is very important, has begun to be partially legitimized in the eyes of the public. All this experience counted. Then there was the experience of Al-Qaeda*, Taliban* and the Islamic State*. Terrorism has undergone a qualitative transformation. He became more intellectual and structurally highly organized. In 2016, the World Bank published the results of its research, from which it follows that the level of education of members of the terrorist group "Islamic State" * is on average higher than that of their fellow countrymen from the countries from which they came. “Poverty is not a reason for radicalization and the adoption of extremist ideas,” analysts came to this conclusion. In addition, those militants who became suicide bombers also had a high level of education, the study emphasized. The actions of Islamic terrorists have ceased to have the character of classical terror. These were already well-planned, calculated almost military operations, developed at a professional staff level. Terrorists have become proxy groups of countries with a vested interest in them. In the Islamic environment, the Americans, the British, the Turks, and the Iranians have acquired such. A number of these groups have been reformatted, rebranded and have become quite respectable, like Hamas, which transformed itself into a political party and won elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council in 2006, receiving a majority of votes there. Having strengthened politically and ideologically, Hamas, with the active support of Iran, apparently began to actively prepare for a new type of war, one not against Israel. Actually, a rebellion as a form of protest is quickly stopped and either resolved peacefully, as was the case with the Wagner PMC, or suppressed by force, as was the case in Kronstadt in 1921. Rebellion is a completely different matter. This is not a separate act, not an operation, it is precisely the continuation of the policy by other means, with weapons in hand. And politics is a long-term process with its own tactical and strategic goals and objectives, prolonged over time, in this case continuously saturated with new military, economic, informational, diplomatic and PR components. For example, on October 24, Hamas militants freed two old women from captivity, drank tea with them on camera, and handed over the captives to humanitarian organizations. Against the backdrop of the daily massive and indiscriminate bombing of Gaza, the piles of corpses of children and entire families, demonstrated by all news agencies of the world, this is an almost win-win move, switching the compassionate reflex of ordinary people in other countries from Jews to Palestinians. In the logic of the modern news flow, which daily erases past news episodes from memory, such moves are a necessary political and informational component of rebellion. After such stories, the average person gradually becomes emotionally discolored by the images of the atrocities of Hamas militants on October 7–8. Thus, we see that rebel designers are people of “long” will. They threw into battle not suicide bombers and partisans in slippers, but superbly trained, well-equipped and armed rebel fighters, each of whom had his own task and could act either alone or as part of a unit, which, in turn, within the framework of the overall strategic plan. The goal of this insurgency unleashed by Hamas, apparently, is not to defeat the enemy in the sense of a classical war, but to force him to carry out the will of the winner. In tactical terms, rebellion has much in common with the so-called network-centric wars, when small detachments independently operate over vast territories, uniting if necessary to accomplish a common task. This war is experimental in many ways and for many of its participants. Now both Israeli and Western military-political analytics are trying to find options for an adequate response to this challenge. It is obvious that rebel warfare will continue to evolve. In what direction, it is still difficult to say. Apparently, the conflict in Ukraine and the experience of aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict are already forcing military theorists to begin to reconsider military doctrines and conceptual approaches to possible armed confrontations, to the continuation of politics with arms in hand. After all, everyone was preparing for the wars of the future, high-tech, targeted, fleeting, humane, which will be fought by small, gadgetized professional armies. What did you get in Ukraine? The First World War with drones. The main weapons are guns made in 1949, trench seats and bloody gnawing off each other over a hundred meters of territory. Israel, apparently, was also preparing for the wrong war. I didn’t pay attention to the current Ukrainian experience. Therefore, the Merkavas turned out to be defenseless from drone strikes (only now they have started hastily welding anti-drone visors - “barbecues”). And the Iron Dome, which performed well in 2011–2014, shooting down about 1,200 Qassam and BM-21 Grad missiles, has not coped with the current raids nearly as successfully. Just look at the severe destruction in Israeli cities. The readiness and actions of a number of even senior officers in the face of the sudden appearance of the enemy also turned out to be not at the highest level. It is obvious that such introductions, when the enemy unexpectedly appears at the unit’s location, attacks from the rear while moving along internal communications, with various means of destruction from several directions at once, were either not practiced at all, or this was done to an insufficient extent. There were facts of confusion, loss of control of entire units and panic, which was not typical of the IDF before. Apparently, Hamas is currently ready for a ground operation by the Israeli army. All of Gaza is covered with tunnels, underground warehouses, hospitals with everything necessary, and so on. Now the Israeli military leadership obviously realizes that the IDF is waiting in Gaza for a “second Terrible,” which the Minister of Defense of that time, Pavel Grachev, was going to take with one parachute regiment. As a result, the Israeli leadership is playing for time and testing the waters for compromise, while making bellicose statements for internal use, as Israeli society seeks revenge. After a terrorist attack or even a reconnaissance and sabotage raid, nothing like this happens. This only happens during a war. In this case, rebel warriors. This experience will also be very important and useful for us, and we need to start studying it right now. In particular, how and why one of the best armies in the world went wrong in the first days of the “Palestinian blitzkrieg”. How were its weaknesses identified? How was the selection of forces and means for attacks on these weak points carried out? How effective was this from a purely military point of view? What new elements of attack and combat were applied? Which types of weapons and technical support proved to be the most productive, and which, on the contrary, did not live up to expectations? And on both sides. The final, or perhaps intermediate, stage in the form of freezing this new rebellious war will be a time for rethinking many, not only purely military aspects. After all, any war is a political matter, and after it, many things change in their politics. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #6 New. Really? Ah come on. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-10-27 09:17 |
| #5 So, if I get the gist of that "speech" correctly, the "Paleostinian state" was the US prexident's to give. So, it would be the US prexident's to take away... |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2023-10-27 06:35 |
| #4 And to round it all: a really racist take on Israeli -Palestinian conflict. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-27 05:37 |
| #3 And it's a new type of war, because #3 didn't exist 100 years ago. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-27 03:53 |
| #2 ^And of course we have exactly the same in Judea & Samaria. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-27 03:51 |
| #1 Hamastanis are not Afghans. Palestinian terrorism based on 3 echelons. (1) Hamas members who carry out attacks and fire rockets. (2) Gazukan population with their well rehersed shows of victimhood on demand. (3) Western degenerates screaming about human rights & civilian casualties. |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2023-10-27 01:23 |