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Economy |
Confirmed Soft Peak for Air Freight |
2023-11-22 |
Moderate strengthening of demand since August has buoyed the sagging air cargo market, but the seasonal surge in retail shipments for the holidays appears to be a third the normal level and more industry players are resetting expectations for a real recovery until the fall of 2024, or later. Market intelligence provider Xeneta said airfreight volumes bumped up 2% in October from September and increased 2% year over year (y/y), but the sequential growth was subpar compared with peak seasons the previous five years. Midway through November, air cargo traffic remains barely ahead of last year’s disappointing fourth quarter, a compilation of surveys shows. With consumer purchasing power stagnant amid nagging inflation and a cooling macroeconomic environment exacerbated by the new war between Israel and Hamas ![]() , a spending shift to services and experiences, few signs of significant retail restocking, and shippers favoring cheap ocean shipping, the freight sector now realizes air shipping probably won’t rally for at least another nine to 12 months. Although airfreight volumes and rates have slowly leveled off since the double-digit declines to start the year and finally crossed over to growth, the annualized drop in cargo revenues during the third quarter reflects the uphill conditions faced by airlines and logistics providers. Major U.S. and European airlines ranging from Air Canada to United Airlines, Air La Belle France-KLM and Lufthansa Group reported revenue declines of 25% to 40% for cargo during the three-month period, with the Lufthansa Cargo freighter unit barely breaking even. Korean Air’s cargo revenue fell 51%. Logistics behemoth Kuehne+Nagel said revenue for arranging air cargo moves dropped 46% y/y, while DSV said airfreight tonnage inched up from the second quarter but was down 14% versus the year-ago period. |
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