[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS- CABINET RESHUFFLE REPORTED – The Deputy Prime Minister, Mawlawi Abdul Kabir is once again said to be stepping down due to an illness. The current Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi will assume the role in the interim. It was not clear if Muttaqi would be replaced at the Foreign Ministry or fulfill the duties of both positions. Kabir has reputedly fallen ill on at least two other occasions and a temporary Deputy was appointed in his place. Some sources allege that Kabir is not ill but has harbored resentment over his position since the Cabinet was formed.
- TALIBAN OFFICIALS IN HERAT CLAIM IRAN DEPORTING AFGHANS WITH VALID PASSPORTS AND LEGITIMATE VISAS – The local head of Immigration in Herat said that many recent deportees had been returned through the Islam Qala crossing bearing valid documentation issued by Iran. Most expressed outrage over having been arrested and deported ‘violently’ by Iranian security forces. Most reports indicate that Iran has increased deportations of Afghans by 100% over the month of November. Speculation continues that Iran is using the cover of Pakistan’s largely unpopular deportation operation to get rid of Afghans.
- NRF CLAIMS RESPONSIBILITY FOR SATURDAY ATTACK IN TAKHAR – The National Resistance Front took credit for a blast that had been reported in Talaqan on Saturday. The group said that 3 Taliban were killed in the incident and that their forces had used an explosive device to target a Taliban vehicle.
- SPIN BOLDAK PROTESTS CONTINUING – Islamabad has yet to find a solution to the protests that continue to block commercial traffic at the Spin Boldak-Chaman border crossing. Trade is reportedly at a standstill as Pakistanis continue to deny access to the crossing for trucks and other commercial vehicles to cross into Afghanistan. The impasse arose over the implementation of the ‘One Document Policy’ that only affords those with a passport/visa to cross the frontier. Local traders say that the crossing has always been treated as an ‘open border’ and that generations have moved freely across to buy/sell goods. The Government in Islamabad has countered that the border crossing has been used for smuggling purposes and seems content to allow it to remain closed. Many international observers in Pakistan have offered the opinion that Islamabad failed to make a strong case for security when implementing the policy and this has contributed to much of the frustration.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Laghman: The AFF claims ro have assassinated 2 Taliban intelligence officials yesterday in the Daulat Shah district. The two stood accused of murdering former members of the Afghan military.
Panjshir: An internal clash between a Taliban district governor and a local Taliban commander took place on Saturday in the Dara district. The governor and a commander reportedly got into a fight. The commander was injured. Locals said the Taliban then disarmed the governor’s security detachment.
Panjshir: An internal clash between a Taliban district governor and a local Taliban commander took place on Saturday in the Dara district. The governor and a commander reportedly got into a fight. The commander was injured. Locals said the Taliban then disarmed the governor’s security detachment.
NEXT 24 HOURS: No Threats Reported
Daily Evacuation Brief | November 26, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- DEPORTATIONS HALTED AT TORKHAM ON FRIDAY, TALIBAN FORCE THE HALT – In a move that has befuddled policymakers in Islamabad, the Taliban refused to accept people being deported from Pakistan by mandating they all must be cleared by the Consul General in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. A source in Islamabad said the maneuver caught members of the Foreign Ministry by surprise and that a special team had been assembled to examine the legality of the Taliban’s new rule. The Taliban’s main contention for invoking the screening is that many Pakistani citizens have been found among the Afghans who have so far been deported back to Afghanistan. A human rights lawyer in Islamabad said the maneuver was ‘brilliant’ on the part of the Taliban and offered the opinion the rule would be hard to argue as Pakistan had used similar arguments in a previous case involving Afghans in the early 2000s. Eyewitnesses say that no deportees were sent through Torkham on Friday as a result and that trucks carrying those who faced expulsion were left at the border to try again today.
- TALIBAN MINISTRY HIT BY NEW CYBER-ATTACK – An unidentified Ministry in Afghanistan fell victim to the ‘HrServ’ attack. Analysts say the attack inserted the web shell into the Ministry’s server and that the HrServ is a weaponized malware that can allow hackers to steal data, monitor servers, and perform limited functions across the server. The hack is being characterized as an Advanced Persistent Attack (APA). The web shell is capable of launching a file that erases any trail it may leave. Analysts say those responsible for the hack are likely not native English speakers due to the high number of typos in the source code. Ultimately, it is believed those behind HrServ were planning a financial crime of some sort.
- RETIRED INDIAN AMBASSADOR SAYS HIS COUNTRY IS ON THE VERGE OF RECOGNIZING THE TALIBAN – Talmiz Ahmad, a retired Indian senior diplomat said that the recent circus that has played out in the Afghan Embassy in New Delhi is a sign his government intends to begin bilateral relations with the defacto leaders in Kabul. Ahmad characterizes the step as ‘inevitable’ and is hopeful that bilateral relations would result in favorable trade agreements and the potential for discussions about the Taliban’s internal policies.
- PAKISTAN’S SUPREME COURT TO HEAR CASE AGAINST FORCED DEPORTATIONS ON 1 DECEMBER – After a possible politically motivated delay, the Supreme Court said it would constitute a three-member bench to hear the plea on behalf of Afghans who were born in Pakistan and are considered to be ‘birthright citizens’ under Section 4 of the Citizenship Act (1951). If the plea is affirmed by the Supreme Court, it could potentially provide a legal basis for halting the deportations as the plaintiffs argue illustrates the Government of Pakistan’s inability to differentiate between those considered lawful ‘birthright citizens’ and those deemed ‘illegal migrants’. Political analysts say that even if the Supreme Court accepts the plea, it is unlikely to halt deportations but could provide ammunition to the international community to bring more pressure to bear on Islamabad over the universally condemned policy.
- BADAKHSHAN HEADACHES CONTINUE FOR TALIBAN – Reports of a widening rift continue to come in from Badakhshan Province. The most recent indicates that the District Governor is thought to have ordered the transfer of both heavy and light weapons to Kandahar. A senior Taliban official, Qari Fasihuddin, was asked to postpone a trip to the restive Province by senior agents from the GDI. A source in Kabul said that senior leaders are recommending a ‘stronger hand’ is needed to lead the Province.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Takhar: A blast was reported by locals in the downtown area of Talaqan. Multiple sources said the blast targeted a Taliban truck and that 1 Talib was killed and two were wounded in the blast. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Parwan: Multiple reports confirmed that an attack if some sort was launched at a district administration building in the Bagram district. Eyewitnesses said the building came under attack from rocket fire before midnight on Saturday, and the attack continued for nearly thirty minutes. Casualties were reported, but the number and type has not been provided.
Parwan: Multiple reports confirmed that an attack if some sort was launched at a district administration building in the Bagram district. Eyewitnesses said the building came under attack from rocket fire before midnight on Saturday, and the attack continued for nearly thirty minutes. Casualties were reported, but the number and type has not been provided.
NEXT 24 HOURS
POSSIBLE DEPLOYMENT OF TALIBAN TO BADAKHSHAN – Several sources in both Kabul and Kandahar say that a warning order has been issued to select units of the Ministry of Defense to prepare for a deployment to the Province. It is not clear what the reinforcements will be used for upon arrival but many are speculating that local leaders will likely be arrested and an effort to reign in members of the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) could occur. At-risk Afghans in Badakhshan (especially Faizabad) should be aware of the possible deployment. Conflict could easily ensue as the Taliban appear to be nervous over a potential ‘breakaway’ Province situation. China has previously expressed concerns over the activity of ETIM in the Province and is rumored to have shared several intercepted messages with Kabul over the past year.
Daily Evacuation Brief | November 25, 2023
[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- NEW UPDATES FROM BADAKHSHAN TALIBAN ISSUES – Hasht-Sub Daily reports that a former Commander of the GDI in the Province was arrested by a special Taliban security detachment sent from Kabul. The former Commander was arrested in Faizabad on Friday and has been transferred to Kabul. Rumi Nooralhuda faces charges of corruption and mistreatment of civilians and may be implicated in the mysterious killing of 4 Taliban fighters earlier in the Province. Nooralhuda is said to be related to Mawlawi Fasihuddin Fetrat, a leader in the Taliban Ministry of Defense.
- UNITED NATIONS TO INVESTIGATE RECENT KILLING OF SHIITE SCHOLARS IN HERAT – A brazen daylight assassination of 2 Shiite Islamic scholars in Herat City has prompted the Special Rapporteur for Afghanistan, Richard Bennett to open an inquiry into the matter. In a tweet, Bennett urged the Taliban to accept an independent investigation into the killings, and sources in Kandahar say that Taliban officials are unlikely to accept the advice as there are concerns that a local Taliban Commander (unnamed) may have been involved.
- TALIBAN OFFICIALS IN KABUL THREATEN SHOP OWNERS TO ADOPT PASHTO OR FACE CLOSURE – The threat was communicated during a televised interview with an unidentified Taliban official in central Kabul. The threat supports claims made by members of minority groups within Afghanistan for the past two years that say their cultures are under threat by the Pashtun-dominated Taliban. The Taliban have continually pushed back against such claims but few can ignore the lack of political representation from minorities in the senior Taliban ranks.
- MORE DIPLOMATIC DRAMA IN INDIA – Diplomatic staff at the besieged Afghan Embassy in New Delhi released several statements on social media that claimed the Embassy was to be closed and no further services were to be provided to Afghan citizens residing in the country. Shortly after the posts began to circulate on various social media platforms, 2 officials from the staff said that the Embassy would continue to operate. One of those mentioned is said to be a consular officer appointed by the previous regime but who has agreed to work with the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry in Kabul. The Government of India has wisely stayed out of the squabble and it is not yet clear if they will accept the credentials of the new ‘Taliban’ affiliated diplomats.
- RESISTANCE ATTACKS GAIN MOMENTUM – Fighters from the Afghanistan Freedom Front have launched several operations over the month of November and appear to be carrying the brunt of the fighting against the Taliban in the months leading up to Winter. Yesterday witnessed three separate military engagements against the Taliban, two of which have been confirmed. The attacks follow several others that were ultimately confirmed throughout the month of November. While the National Resistance Front is generally considered the main military opponent for the Taliban, the AFF has clearly stepped up operations when most campaigning is tapering off for the Winter. Local sources within the Resistance say this is primarily due to a spike in recruitment that began in late 2022 and that the group is primarily located within Kabul and a select few other cities while the NRF is considered the ‘Northern Front’ and is based mainly in Takhar and Panjshir. Many have long thought that the majority of the legitimate Resistance groups began coordinating operations at the end of 2022. This has not been confirmed but the frequency and locations of attacks over the course of 2023 suggest that some communication is taking place. Many in Afghanistan have characterized the AFF fighters as sort of a ‘Robin Hood’ movement that locals can turn to in dealing with particularly heavy-handed or corrupt Taliban in their neighborhoods. The AFF’s operational strategy has been to launch lightning attacks on vulnerable Taliban positions. While the NRF was involved in heavier campaigns against the Taliban in 2022. Throughout 2023, the NRF has played a more defensive role and has largely avoided major engagements like those witnessed in the previous year. Whether this is a coordinated strategy between the two groups is unknown but it has resulted in constant pressure on the Taliban and has served to illustrate to regional and international observers that the Resistance is far from pacified.
CONFLICT TRACKER
Kabul: An operation by fighters from the AFF took place yesterday evening, targeting a Taliban position in the Gulkhane area (6th Police District). 2 Talibs were killed and 3 others wounded in the operation.
Kabul: An AFF force launched an attack earlier against the Taliban garrison of Toli Muzab (5th Police District), which left 4 Taliban member dead and 3 wounded in the attack. Sources say the attack was ordered after citizens complained the garrison was responsible for searches that were focused on stealing citizens’ property.
Parwan: Fighters from the AFF reportedly struck a Taliban security checkpoint near the Padeh Khab Bridge in the Bagram district. 3 Talibs were said to have been killed and 2 others wounded in the attack.
Kabul: An AFF force launched an attack earlier against the Taliban garrison of Toli Muzab (5th Police District), which left 4 Taliban member dead and 3 wounded in the attack. Sources say the attack was ordered after citizens complained the garrison was responsible for searches that were focused on stealing citizens’ property.
Parwan: Fighters from the AFF reportedly struck a Taliban security checkpoint near the Padeh Khab Bridge in the Bagram district. 3 Talibs were said to have been killed and 2 others wounded in the attack.
NEXT 24 HOURS
POSSIBLE TALIBAN SECURITY OPERATIONS IN KABUL – After two successful attacks by Resistance forces in Kabul and a third unconfirmed attack in Parwan, our analysis indicates it is likely the Taliban will be forced to respond and may launch a search operation to attempt to ferret out the location of Afghanistan Freedom Front operating bases. Sources in Kabul say that local Taliban Commanders have been voicing frustration with the Ministry of the Interior’s inability to gain intelligence on the AFF for the past two months. With this in mind, increased security operations are possible in Kabul and potentially elsewhere across the country. Sources say that very little information is known about the AFF and that some are suspicious it is receiving intelligence from within the Taliban that has allowed it to elude detection. At the very least, the Taliban will likely increase patrols in order to restore confidence among its fighters who are manning checkpoints and outposts that it is at least doing something to contain the AFF.