| Submit your comments on this article |
| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Ukraine 2023. From the 'counter-offensive' to the breakdown of consciousness |
| 2023-12-31 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Denis Davydov [REGNUM] The traditional forecast according to the Chinese calendar for Ukraine, oddly enough, came true. On the eve of 2023, the Ukrainian media talked about the capricious Black Water Rabbit, and the predictions of experienced astrologers that “next year many unions that have already outlived their usefulness are likely to fall apart” turned out to be true. Having started the year on a cheerful note of victory, Ukrainian propagandists trumpeted an imminent offensive, and experts predicted the imminent collapse of weak Russia, which only needs to be put under a little pressure. Even artificial intelligence has been involved in forecasting. Chat GPT expressed confidence that “Ukraine is likely to experience progress in modernizing and reforming its own economy and other institutions.” But by mid-summer it became clear that something was going wrong despite all efforts. Even the installation of a huge trident on the shield of the Motherland in Kyiv and the raider seizure of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra did not help. Ukrainians are ending the year in a depressed mood. Society suddenly realized that it had been lied to all this time, and the new mobilization bill caused real panic. Politicians are frantically looking for a new formula for “victory,” and the fate of Vladimir Zelensky is intriguing. Will he call an election and use the chance to leave, or will something happen to him? Cracks began to appear in the “Ukrainian unity” like a web. And how long the entire structure will now last will be shown by the next year of the Green Wooden Dragon. WINTER. THE FIRST SWALLOW After the New Year holidays of 2023, an incident with a helicopter thundered throughout Ukraine, in which the Minister of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Denis Monastyrsky and his team crashed. They fell on a kindergarten in the Kiev suburb of Brovary, as a result of which children died. According to investigators, the cause of the plane crash was pilot error. However, unofficially, there was a widely spread version that the plane crash could be an execution by decision of Zelensky himself - for Monastyrsky’s defection to the side of the pro-American lobby and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny. Even then, it was discussed in politics that the general was playing his own game against Zelensky - and this competition intensified in the fall. But the sadness quickly dissipated - a new minister was appointed, and on January 21, the Ministry of Reintegration excluded Kyiv from the list of territories of possible military operations. As confirmation that the capital was safe, two days later she was visited by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who visited Bucha and Borodyanka. At that time, no one knew that the war could have been prevented if it had not been for him: Johnson’s role in the breakdown of peace negotiations would become known only in November. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine worked in its usual format. In January, journalists published an investigation alleging that food for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is purchased at prices 2-3 times higher than market prices. For example, eggs cost 17 hryvnia apiece, which immediately became a meme, and ultimately cost Minister Alexey Reznikov his job. In winter, the Ukrainian authorities began to actively accumulate armored vehicles for the summer offensive. For the first time, conversations began about the prayed-for “Leopards,” which were harshly demanded from Germany, criticizing it for its indecisiveness. The USA and Britain provided large quantities of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles. In a conversation with the Commander-in-Chief of the NATO Armed Forces in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, Zaluzhny said that the victory of Ukraine means the complete liberation of the territories plus such a strengthening of the Ukrainian army that Russia could never attack again. However, the recently fired presidential adviser Alexei Arestovich became the first big swallow to chirp that all these were empty hopes. “If everyone thinks that we are guaranteed to win the war, then it is very unlikely. Since the 14th it has ceased to look like this. Do you think President Duda’s assessment that it is unknown whether Ukraine will survive in the coming months was just said? Or is he speaking based on some information?” - Arestovich asked a rhetorical question, but then was not heard. SPRING. LAVRA, ATOM AND BLOCKADE The seizure of the Kiev Pechersk Lavra, one of the main Orthodox shrines, began in November 2022, when the SBU searched the Lavra premises. At the beginning of December 2022, it was registered as a monastery within the political Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), and on March 10, 2023, the inhabitants were ordered to vacate the monastery by the end of the month. Or go to the OCU. A “prayerful standing” began, ending predictably: at the end of July, “on the day of the Baptism of Russia-Ukraine,” the Primate of the OCU, Epiphanius, performed a solemn liturgy in the Dormition Cathedral of the Lavra. After that, it is empty - believers stopped going there, and the new church has practically no parishioners. In March, the first wave of fear-mongering began about a possible “nuclear disaster” at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. The American Institute for the Study of War stated that Russia may try to contain the upcoming counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine by creating threats around the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. Already on March 9, the nuclear power plant was de-energized by the Ukrainian side under the pretext of a “Russian missile attack” - the only power transmission line that met the nuclear power plant’s own needs came from the territory of Ukraine. There they announced an imminent accident “with radiation consequences for the whole world.” This only calmed down in July, after an IAEA inspection was carried out at the station. Zelensky immediately used the situation to demand sanctions for Russian nuclear energy. However, storm clouds began to gather above him. In early April, the opposition, represented by the party of ex-president Petro Poroshenko, accused Zelensky of being the one who started a full-scale war, and for the first time, demands were made for holding elections. On the other hand, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria and Slovakia struck, and in April they introduced a ban on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products. The initiator was Poland, until that moment an exemplary ally. A blockade of Ukrainian trade began, which collapsed export-import operations, and by the end of the year this crisis had not been resolved. And in May, preparations for a decisive counter-offensive in the south had already begun: the Leopards finally arrived. The direction of the strike was announced in advance, which Zelensky later blamed as the main reason for the failure. However, even then there were calls not to expect this to become a “decisive battle.” SUMMER. BIG BREAK. In terms of the number of events, the Ukrainian summer turned out to be extremely eventful, starting with the fact that on the eve of the long-awaited “counter-offensive” (which began on June 4–5), electricity prices for the population increased. Although the Ukrainian government promised to freeze prices “until the end of the war,” it could not resist the IMF’s demands. On the night of June 6, everyone had already forgotten about this problem. One of the largest man-made, environmental and humanitarian disasters in the world occurred: the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station was destroyed. As a result of flooding in the Kherson region, about 30 settlements on both banks of the Dnieper were flooded. The Ukrainian side and international media immediately blamed Russian troops for the incident, despite the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been targeting the dam with Himars missiles since October 2022. The Ministry of Agricultural Policy of Ukraine complained that the disaster “virtually left 94% of the irrigation systems in Khersonskaya, 74 without a source of water.” % - in Zaporozhye and 30% - in Dnepropetrovsk regions." However, the bottom line is that this was one of the main goals of the crime, which fits into the general logic of the “dehydration” of Crimea, to which two more regions have now been added within Russia. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces intended to liquidate in this way the defensive structures of the Russian Armed Forces on the left bank in order to strike from Kherson. As a result, such a plan was not implemented, but on July 1, during a visit to Kiev by CIA Director William Burns, he was told about the plans: by the fall, Ukraine should regain all territories within the 1991 borders and by the end of December negotiate a ceasefire with Russia. At the same time, it became clear that hopes of joining the North Atlantic Alliance were in vain. Following the 74th NATO summit in Vilnius in mid-July, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN that Ukraine's accession "would mean war with Russia." “They were frank with Zelensky,” and as a consolation, the G7 signed a declaration of support for Ukraine and assistance in governance reforms necessary for “Euro-Atlantic aspirations.” Finally, the Ukrainian leader was publicly flogged by British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, who suggested paying more attention to gratitude for Western help: “You know, we are not Amazon. I told them this last year when I drove 11 hours to get the list.” Nevertheless, the weapons provided were enough to carry out several high-profile attacks on Crimea. On July 17, a Ukrainian surface drone (presumably British-made) blew up the Crimean Bridge. In response, Russia launched massive attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports and withdrew from the “grain deal.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned this decision, calling it a “cynical step.” “The EU will continue to export agricultural products from Ukraine to world markets through solidarity routes,” she said, adding that the EU is working to ensure food security for vulnerable segments of the population. Life has shown that Ursula is much more cynical. Just on July 19, Hungary, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania and Slovakia asked the EU to extend the moratorium on the import of Ukrainian agricultural products at least until the end of the year. And 10 days later, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland would unilaterally extend the ban, even without the EU. Thus, the calculations made by Chat GPT at the beginning of the year collapsed along with the remnants of the Ukrainian economy. But the Kyiv authorities did not lose heart. As part of the “renunciation of the Russian heritage,” on July 14, parliament legislatively approved the postponement of Christmas celebrations from January 7 to December 25. A law on the legalization of cannabis was passed in the first reading, there was a debate about the special status of the English language, parliamentarians prepared a bill decriminalizing pornography and brothels, and took up the issue of same-sex marriage. And on August 6, at the Motherland Monument in Kiev, instead of the Soviet coat of arms, a huge trident was installed August was also remembered for the dismissal of all military commissars in the country - following a major scandal with the arrested military commissar of Odessa Evgeniy Borisov, whose family was found to have property in Spain worth $4.5 million. Defense Minister Reznikov again found himself under fire, now due to the purchase of summer jackets at the price of winter ones, and resigned in early September. And by the end of August, the rhetoric about the prospects had changed radically. “How long will the war continue? Must be honest. In this war, the path to victory will be long and difficult. “2-3 weeks”, “until the end of the year”, “next spring” - all this is not true,” Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration Irina Vereshchuk wrote in her Telegram channel. In her opinion, one should “get ready for a long and difficult war.” And since the war will be long, the entire male population of the country will go to it. AUTUMN. IT'S TIME FOR DESPONDENCY In September it became known that in 2023, among first-year students of paid education, the number of men increased to 70%, and in two years the number of such students increased 23 times. By December, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported that 6,000 males were leaving the country every day, and only 200–300 were returning. Therefore, the government has taken on women: those of them who have medical and pharmaceutical education must be required to register with the military from October 1, 2023. Meanwhile, problems with “good European neighbors” reached a critical point during the election campaign in Poland. President Andrzej Duda, in a commentary to Polish media, even compared Ukraine to a drowning man who “grabs at everything he can” and is “incredibly dangerous because he can drag down rescuers with him. ” “Therefore, we must take care of our interests, and we will do this effectively and decisively,” Duda said at a briefing, as was proven in the case. On November 6, Polish carriers blocked checkpoints with Ukraine, demanding the return of permits for commercial transportation to Ukrainians. Also contrary to EU rules. The fall will be remembered for several other high-profile stories. Thus, during Zelensky’s visit to Canada at the end of September, Yaroslav Gunka, a 98-year-old veteran of the SS Galicia division, was invited to a ceremonial meeting of parliament in his honor. He was awarded a standing ovation, joined by both Zelensky and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. All this backfired: the reception he received had a huge international resonance, including requests for Gunka’s extradition. And the real sensation was the arrest of the co-owner of one of the largest financial and industrial groups in the country, Privat, Igor Kolomoisky. It was this oligarch who played an important, if not key, role in Zelensky winning the 2019 presidential elections and becoming a shareholder in the new government team, receiving his “quota” in it. Everyone knew about the contradictions between him and the president, about Kolomoisky’s problems with the United States, but few believed that he would end up in a pre-trial detention center with dim prospects. Plans for further management also became unclear. The prime ministers of Hungary and Slovakia, Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, blocked a €50 billion aid package for Ukraine from the European budget. Also, the EU was unable to approve the allocation of promised assistance of 500 million euros in weapons. The $60 billion from the United States is also stuck tightly: Republicans blocked the document in the Senate. A hole of more than $30 billion has formed in the budget of the Ukrainian state, and First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko said that in an independent state without Western help, 10 million pensioners will not receive pensions on time, and 500 thousand officials and 1.4 million teachers will not receive salaries. TIME OF DARKNESS December is presented by the Ukrainian authorities as a fateful month. European leaders have decided to open negotiations with Ukraine on EU membership, calling it a victory “that motivates, inspires and strengthens.” But unofficially, European officials openly say that all this is just a symbolic gesture to maintain the mood. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to pass 75 consensus votes on the results of the implementation of European laws and standards. Especially by digging “holes” for yourself with your own hands, as in the case of the final deprivation of the rights of the Russian language - formally fulfilling the requirements of the European Commission on languages of national minorities. Meanwhile, the country's national debt exceeded UAH 5 trillion. (or $140.8 billion) and equals 85% of GDP by the end of 2023. Nobody knows what to do with this. The blockade of the border by neighbors continues. In Kiev, six metro stations have stopped due to flooding of the tunnel, and a key section on Podol may be closed, which will cut off the huge Obolon district from communication. But the real hit was the mobilization bill, thanks to which the government and the command hope to put half a million Ukrainian men under arms. This is exactly what the front needs after two years of attempts to end the war “in two or three weeks” and a failed counteroffensive. Recently, the “united country” was talking with all its might about slavery, resistance, expressing seditious thoughts that maybe Russia really was going to liberate them. People suddenly came to the conclusion that their only way was not to go to any war, since this was the true salvation of the nation. So the main goal of mobilization - “to preserve and protect the country” - will definitely not be achieved as a result of the adoption of such a law. Because now for Ukrainians there is only one question on the agenda: do they need a country in which they are just a consumable resource. And for Ukraine this is, perhaps, the main result of the outgoing year. |
| Posted by:badanov |