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| Ukrainian Armed Forces will regain the initiative in 2025. US intelligence forecast |
| 2024-03-13 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [Korrespondent] Will the US help Ukraine turn the tide of the war? If the US Congress approves additional aid to Ukraine, there is a real opportunity to cement a strategic success for Ukraine and a strategic defeat for Putin's Russia. American intelligence presented a report to the Senate on the situation in the international arena and the key challenges facing the United States. A significant part of the report was devoted to the situation in Ukraine. FAITH IN UKRAINE With additional assistance from the United States, Ukraine will be able to seize the offensive initiative at the front by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, CIA Director William Burns said during a hearing of the Senate Intelligence Committee on Monday, March 11. Burns said he just returned from Ukraine and believes that “we are now at a very important crossroads” for Ukraine, European security and American interests in the world in the long term. He noted that if Congress approves additional aid to Ukraine, there is “a real opportunity to cement a strategic success for Ukraine and a strategic defeat for Putin’s Russia.” According to the CIA, with additional help, Ukraine will be able to further inflict losses on Russia - we are talking about attacks on both occupied Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet of the aggressor country. “With additional assistance, Ukraine may find itself in a situation in late 2024 or early 2025 where it can seize the offensive initiative and negotiate from a position of strength,” Burns said. Another option, if the United States does not provide additional assistance to Ukraine, according to Burns, Ukraine could lose large territories in 2024, and the world will see “more Avdiivka.” He warned the Senate that refusing additional aid to Ukraine would be a huge and historic mistake for the United States. FRAGILE WORLD ORDER The United States faces an “increasingly fragile global order” that is plagued by great power competition, transnational challenges and regional conflicts, US intelligence agencies said in a report released during testimony by agency leaders in the US Senate on Monday, March 11. “An ambitious but troubled China, a confrontational Russia, some regional states such as Iran, and more powerful non-state actors are challenging the long-standing rules of the international system, as well as US supremacy within it,” Reuters quoted an intelligence report on the 2024 threats as saying. The report mainly focuses on threats from China and Russia, and also notes the risks of the broader conflict associated with Israel's campaign against Hamas in Gaza following the October 7 attacks. China is providing economic and security assistance to Russia as it wages war in Ukraine, supporting Russia's industrial base, the document says. Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, called on lawmakers to approve increased military aid to Ukraine. She said it was “hard to imagine” how Ukraine could hold onto the territory it wrested from Russia without more help from Washington. CIA Director William Burns said in the Senate that, according to US intelligence estimates, the Russian Federation is “not serious” about negotiations to end the war, despite the economic consequences that will “quickly turn Russia into an economic vassal of China.” “In our assessment, Xi Jinping sobered up from, you know, what happened. He did not expect Ukraine to fight back with the courage and tenacity that the Ukrainians showed,” Burns said. RUSSIA IS AFRAID OF CONFLICT WITH THE UNITED STATES US intelligence believes that Russia does not want a direct military conflict with the US and NATO and will continue asymmetrical activities, which, in its assessment, will not cross the threshold of military conflict on a global scale, the report says. It is noted that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin probably believes that Russia has thwarted Ukraine's attempts to liberate a significant amount of occupied territory, and support for Ukraine from the West and the United States is limited, especially in light of the war between Israel and Hamas. However, as intelligence officers write, Putin, with his invasion of Ukraine, undermined Russia's geopolitical, economic and military revival and led to huge losses both within the country and abroad. At the same time, Russia still remains a stable and capable adversary in a wide range of areas and seeks to promote and defend its interests on a global scale and undermine the positions of the United States and the West. It is reported that strengthening Russia's ties with China, Iran and North Korea to strengthen its defense production and economy is a serious challenge for the West and partners. Thus, Russia will continue to pursue its interests in a competitive and sometimes provocative manner and try to influence other countries in the post-Soviet space. According to the report, the Russian Federation is pursuing a policy aimed at mitigating losses and using international relations to minimize them in order to restore confidence in itself as a “great power.” US intelligence officials also said that Russia will face a number of challenges, such as a significant disconnect from Western markets and technology and a flight of human resources. It is noted that Moscow has successfully redirected most of the oil by sea and is likely selling significant volumes at a cost that exceeds the “price ceiling” established by the G7 countries. That's partly because Russia is increasingly turning to non-Western options to redirect most of its oil exports by sea, but also because global oil prices have risen in the past year. |
| Posted by:badanov |
#2 Are these people or monkeys? The answer is "yes" |
| Posted by: Elmaper McGurque1612 2024-03-13 22:22 |
| #1 Ukrainian Armed Forces will regain the initiative in 2025. US intelligence forecast Are these people or monkeys? |
| Posted by: Grom the Reflective 2024-03-13 01:37 |