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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | |
| Iran is approaching the 'red line' when it is ready to strike Israel | |
| 2024-04-05 | |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Kirill Semenov [REGNUM] Israeli authorities believe that an Iranian strike in response to the attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus on April 1 is inevitable and could occur as early as this Friday, that is, Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, which falls on the last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. The British BBC reports this. In anticipation of retaliatory strikes, the GPS system began to jam over Israeli territory. In addition, IDF soldiers serving in combat units are denied leave. The risk of further escalation in the region has never been higher. AT THE "RED LINE" The attack on the consulate is not the first time since the start of the offensive on Gaza that Israel has struck Syria, where high-ranking Iranian officers have also previously been killed. Last December, Israeli attacks killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps General Razi Mousavi, who was responsible for supplying Lebanese Hezbollah with weapons. On January 20, General Sadegh Omidzadeh, head of intelligence for the Quds Force in Syria, was killed. But these attacks were not aimed at an Iranian government facility, but at Syrian military bases and headquarters where Iranian officers were present, or at Hezbollah facilities that hosted Iranian advisers and trainers. However, a direct strike hit the Iranian consulate in Damascus this week, killing General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, head of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, his deputy Mohammad Haj Rahimi, Hossein Aminullah, the top Iranian adviser in Syria, as well as four others officer, seriously shifts the “red lines,” if not to say that he completely violates them. First of all, because Iran’s diplomatic mission came under direct attack, which in itself is an unprecedented act of aggression and a direct attack on the Islamic Republic, taking into account the status of the diplomatic mission as the sovereign territory of the country. In this regard, on Wednesday Russia initiated a meeting of the UN Security Council, at which it proposed to prepare a statement condemning the Israeli strike as an attack on a diplomatic mission. However, the USA, Great Britain and France opposed it. However, even Saudi Arabia, which until recently was considered an enemy of Iran, condemned the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate. However, the main question remains whether Iran will respond to the Israeli strike symmetrically, that is, on its own, or asymmetrically, that is, it will entrust this mission to its regional proxies. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday that Israel would be "slapped in the face." “The defeat of the Zionist regime in the Gaza Strip will continue, and this regime will be close to decline and collapse,” Khamenei said in an address to country officials in Tehran. “Desperate efforts like the ones they made in Syria will not save them from defeat. Of course, they will also be slapped in the face for this,” he added. It does not directly follow from Rahbar’s statements whether Iran itself will strike Israel or will continue to act with the help of its allies, only increasing the intensity of attacks on the Jewish state. Nevertheless, Tehran is now closer than ever before to that “red line” when it is ready to strike directly at Israeli territory. It is unlikely that it will be possible to limit ourselves to attacks on certain Israeli intelligence Mossad targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, as was the case before. It is obvious that the result of the attack in Damascus is not the efforts of some intelligence network, but a direct attack by the IDF. Therefore, an attack by Iranian ballistic missiles on Israeli territory is more real than ever. But it would rather be of a very limited “tactical nature” in order to avoid the risk of a full-scale war. Overall, Iran appears to have no intention of abandoning its war of attrition tactics against Israel in the hope that, over time, Benjamin Netanyahu's regime will further isolate itself and weaken its international support through its own actions. At the same time, Tehran will continue to influence Israel by weakening its capabilities in Gaza through its allies such as the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Houthis. Iran has always sought to avoid direct confrontation with Israel, preferring to use its regional proxies for this, and so far it is hardly ready to abandon this well-established strategy that is producing results. At the same time, the retaliatory actions of Tehran and the Axis of Resistance forces under its auspices often affected not so much Tel Aviv as Washington, since the targets of attacks by pro-Iranian forces were primarily American military facilities in Syria or Iraq. NEW FRONT AND ATTRITION STRATEGY However, this time the Islamic Republic needs to ensure that its response is specific to Israel. The situation is noticeably different from the terrorist attack in Kerman, when Iran blamed it on both the United States and Israel, although the explosion itself was carried out by ISIS terrorists (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation). Back then, the accusations were based on assumptions and circumstantial evidence, but now Israel’s involvement in the attacks is obvious, which means the answer must be appropriate. Iran's main ally, Hezbollah, already has a wide arsenal of various missiles, drones and other weapons and has not yet fully deployed them in the confrontation with Israel. Now Hezbollah has the opportunity to activate these resources. There are other options regarding the opening of new fronts against the Jewish state. In particular, massive attacks from the pro-Iranian “Islamic Resistance of Iraq” from the Syrian part of the Golan Heights, which have long served as a base for pro-Iranian groups, cannot be ruled out. Attacks can be carried out using MLRS, other types of missiles, or the latest drones, which can be obtained from Iran. It is also likely that assault groups will be used to invade the Israeli-occupied Golan. In addition, attacks on Israel can also be carried out through the territory of Jordan from Iraq by the forces of the same “Islamic Resistance”. Abu Ali al-Askari, chief of security for Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah militia, part of the pro-Iranian Iraqi Islamic Resistance, said his forces are ready to arm and train 12,000 militiamen in Jordan for the war against Israel. Al-Askari even has a plan to disrupt ties between Jordan and Israel by blocking roads and preventing the delivery of goods. “If the actions of the Iraqi militias embarrass the Iraqi government, we will be able to find suitable alternatives,” a Kataib Hezbollah spokesman said. In Jordan, which has been grappling with street demonstrations against Israel for more than two weeks, urgent military discussions have been convened to prepare a scenario in which the kingdom becomes the new front for an "axis of resistance." THE US DOES NOT WANT ESCALATION On the other hand, a massive Hezbollah incursion into Israel would likely force the United States into the conflict as well. It cannot be ruled out that this is part of Netanyahu’s plan. It is significant that the Israeli strike occurred on April 1, immediately after a virtual meeting in which Israeli officials agreed to take into account US “concerns” about a possible invasion of the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. “The American side has expressed concern about various actions in Rafah. The Israeli side agreed to take these concerns into account and hold subsequent discussions between experts,” the White House said. And they added that further discussions will be held, including another meeting next week. Therefore, Tel Aviv’s attack on Damascus is a challenge from Israel to not only Iran, but also the United States. Like, if you are so afraid of an escalation with Iran over Rafah, listening to your “Arab friends,” then we will make a new round of confrontation with the “Axis of Resistance” inevitable. And then it will no longer matter whether the IDF launches an attack on Rafah or not. We can say that Washington has found itself virtually hostage to Tel Aviv and is forced to continue to support it, despite its rejection of what the Netanyahu regime is doing in Gaza. Refusal to support Israel would mean the loss of a political future for any American politician. Now, Israel, with its strike on an Iranian diplomatic facility, can drag the United States into a new confrontation with Iran. Moreover, this time the conflict could take much more dangerous forms. Fearing such a scenario, the United States has already sent an urgent message to Iran that Washington was not involved in the attack.
In particular, the commander of the US Air Force in the Middle East, Lt. Gen. Alexus Grinkevich, said that Iran's assertion of US responsibility for Israel's actions could end the pause in attacks by pro-Iranian militias on US troops that have been ongoing since early February. He said he does not yet see any specific threat to American troops, but is concerned about Iranian rhetoric as it creates increased risks. In general, Iran will most likely refrain from any actions that could bring the escalation to a new level of tension and will continue to use the strategy of exhausting the Netanyahu regime. Moreover, in addition to the blow to Damascus, the Israelis launched another one in Gaza. It claimed the lives of aid workers and Western citizens, which also prompted unprecedented condemnation of Netanyahu's actions. A growing split between the Jewish state and its allies - the United States and the countries of the European Union - is evident. And it is important for Iran to maintain the dynamics of dissatisfaction with Israel’s actions in order to prevent the restoration of consolidation of the Western world. | |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #4 Israel has had more than a decade to plan for such a scenario. A devastating Netanyahu counter-attack may be precisely what Iran expects and will limit its own activity at present. |
| Posted by: Huputle+Cherelet4131 2024-04-05 10:13 |
| #3 Israeli embassies around the world are put on high alert over fears Iran is planning an attack on diplomats |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2024-04-05 10:04 |
| #2 ^^ Why not, he paid them for it. If course, maybe it was just meant for the duration of his term. |
| Posted by: Mullah Richard OTR 2024-04-05 07:30 |
| #1 Same red line Obama used? |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2024-04-05 01:29 |