[Korrespondent]
- Vladimir Putin hopes to win in Ukraine through long-term, creeping offensive operations, according to the Institute for the Study of War
- Ukraine and Russia are facing a “deadly summer” in which thousands of people could die, but neither side will be able to achieve a decisive breakthrough, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal
PRESSURE FROM RUSSIA
It is noted that the main task of the Ukrainian Defense Forces now is to hold positions using Western weapons. An unnamed senior Ukrainian security official said that Russia will most likely continue to sacrifice large numbers of soldiers for small gains. In addition, he claims that the aggressor country does not have enough troops for a major offensive on Kharkov, since moving forces there will weaken other parts of the front.
WSJ writes that both sides are trying to strike deep to gain an advantage before winter. Thus, Russia is striking at Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the defensive positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At the same time, Ukraine is attacking the temporarily occupied Crimea with long-range missiles.
“While Russia is still making some gains on the battlefield, it appears that the Ukrainians are doing a pretty good job of strategically striking and moving and holding their own,” said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Russian army has reportedly been able to compensate for its losses by replenishing its personnel, but the occupiers' progress is now slow and predictable.
The WSJ noted that for Ukrainian strategists and Western advisers, it remains an uncertain question whether Russia will attempt a large-scale offensive in the summer.
PUTIN'S TACTICS
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War believe that Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue a gradual, creeping advance indefinitely, preventing Ukraine from mounting successful counteroffensives, and ultimately winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces. The Russian military has so far favored successive offensives that yield incremental tactical gains rather than large, rapid maneuver offensives aimed at achieving significant operational gains, ISW says. It suggests that Putin and the Russian military’s leadership likely view this approach as a greater guarantee of success in Ukraine than large, mobile offensives. They also appear to acknowledge the reality that Russian forces will likely have to march toward individual operational objectives (such as capturing strategically important cities) for months, if not years.
Putin probably hopes that the slow advance of his forces in Ukraine, which could last for months if not years, will convince the West that military victory over Russia is impossible and that losing some territory is preferable to the complete defeat of Ukraine.