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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| No Chance to Break Out of the Deadlock. War Scenarios |
| 2024-07-10 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [Korrespondent] Russia is unable to seize most of Ukraine, and Kyiv's prospects of recapturing more land from the occupying army are also diminishing, writes The New York Times. Russia can’t seize new territory, and Ukraine can’t recapture what it occupies – this is how The New York Times describes the situation on the front. The article says that the coming months will be difficult for Ukraine, but NATO allies, who gathered for a summit in Washington on July 9, “can reasonably claim that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are bearing fruit.” At the same time, The Washington Post, citing intercepts and interviews with 10 Ukrainian commanders and military personnel, paints a picture of the increasingly desperate state of Russian ground forces, which are losing personnel and momentum. RUSSIANS WITHOUT A BREAKTHROUGH “Ukrainian forces are exhausted and face tough months of fighting, but a major Russian breakthrough is now unlikely,” says Michael Kofman, a Carnegie Endowment official who recently returned from Ukraine. “While Russia is unable to seize much of Ukraine, Kyiv’s prospects for reclaiming more land from the occupying army are also diminishing. Ukraine, urged on by American advisers, has focused on bolstering its defenses and striking deep into Russian territory,” The New York Times wrote. According to Eric Ciaramella, a former intelligence official and Ukraine expert at the Carnegie Endowment, it has become clear over the past year and a half that neither Ukraine nor Russia “has the capacity to significantly change the battle lines.” He and U.S. officials believe that long-term investment by the U.S. and its allies will be needed to enable Ukraine to hold its ground and wear down and damage Russia. “This scenario is still very unstable. So Western leaders really need to focus on integrating Ukraine into European and transatlantic security structures,” Ciaramella said. The article also claims that in the first year of full-scale war, “Russia has seized the most pro-Russian parts of Ukraine” and, according to US officials, it will be “nearly impossible for Ukraine to retake all of its territory, but it may push for greater European integration if its successes on the battlefield are greater.” IT'S NOT TIME TO NEGOTIATE According to some American officials, “even without the return of its lands, Ukraine could emerge from the war as a winner, moving closer to NATO and Europe.” “American officials acknowledge that Russia could make significant progress if there was a major strategic shift, such as by expanding its military recruitment and training campaign. Their predictions would also be undermined if U.S. policy toward Ukraine and Russia changed,” the authors write. Officials agree that “it would be a mistake to demand negotiations now.” DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIAN LOGISTICS In a transcript of one radio conversation intercepted in June in the Kharkiv region and shared with The Washington Post, a Russian soldier orders another soldier to make sure that the arriving troops responsible for transporting supplies understand that there is a severe shortage of food and water. Intercepted communications provided to The Post show that Russia is now facing significant difficulties in securing enough supply routes to meet the basic needs of its troops. In one message, a Russian soldier talks to his parents, telling them that he is near the Ukrainian village of Liptsy, where his unit has lost several men and is out of food. Another report said Russian troops sometimes refused to advance. Chief of Staff of the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, Colonel Maksym Holubok, says that after Washington lifted restrictions on hitting targets on Russian territory, Russia stopped concentrating large groups of troops in the border zone and withdrew some artillery systems to protect them. Andrey Shcherbina, a soldier with the 57th Ukrainian Brigade, said he understood from intercepted conversations that Russian troops were limiting their water intake, drinking only 250 ml. “Our main goal is to prevent the Russians from establishing supply routes. If you cut off water and food, they end up in very bad condition,” he said. CONSTANT FIGHTING Political scientist and serviceman of the 41st separate mechanized brigade Kirill Sazonov, who is currently in the Toretsk area of Donetsk region, says that there are constant battles in the area of Chasovy Yar and Toretsk. “The enemy is using aviation very actively, artillery is working. It seems to me that Donetsk Oblast is a target for them, which they are trying to take at any cost. And in recent weeks they have accelerated, opening the Torets direction… They are constantly storming. Yesterday, precisely at Chasik (Chasov Yar), they lost about 70 200th (killed) personnel and more than 100 300th (wounded). The other day they were actively storming Chasik, they lost more than 120 200th and more than 200 300th in a day. That is, they are suffering losses, but they are climbing… I see that they are in a hurry, that they need Donbass as quickly as possible. We see this. In this regard, the situation is very difficult. Because we also do not have endless reserves, we also suffer losses, our brigades are also not fully staffed,” Sazonov says. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #4 As for bots or trolls or whatever, I think we've seen our share right here at Rantburg and what we've seen isn't all that worrisome. I'm a lot more concerned about America's own mainstream media. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2024-07-10 12:01 |
| #3 Eric Ciaramella...where have I seen that name? Oh, yeah...'Saw everything': Alleged whistleblower Eric Ciaramella had extensive access in Trump White House If Ciaramella is the kind of source Korrespondent uses, I think I've read enough. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2024-07-10 11:57 |
| #2 U.S. and Allies Target Russian Bots Working to Spread Propaganda |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2024-07-10 08:03 |
| #1 "IT'S NOT TIME TO NEGOTIATE", never in the west. Just start other conflicts to weaken Russia. Bully diplomacy. Opposite results as usual. |
| Posted by: Dale 2024-07-10 03:26 |