by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Recently, Saudi Prince Turki bin Faisal, an experienced diplomat and intelligence officer, one of the “grey cardinals” of the royal court, attacked the United States with criticism of its policy towards Israel.
He stated that there would be no normalization of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv, which Washington had been so insistent on, without the creation of a Palestinian state, and that Western partners should stop financing Israel’s “military adventures.”
At first glance, Ibn Faisal was merely repeating the “political mantra” about the inevitability of a Palestinian state that Riyadh has been using for more than 20 years.
However, there is an important detail in his words: for the first time in years of partnership, the Saudis demanded that the United States stop all support for Israel, although before this Saudi Arabia had never criticized its main ally for “ambiguous contacts” and even used them for its own purposes.
Given the previous statements by Saudi courtiers, it is clear that Riyadh is not inclined to normalize relations with Israel, at least not according to the formula that Washington is now imposing.
| Does he still think all that after yesterday’s little excitement? The effect on Hezbollah, tool of the House of Saud’s great rival, Iran: 5,000 rigged pagers, thousands injured — hundreds severely and permanently — and a rising number of deaths among those important enough to the Hezbollah hierarchy to be issued pagers so they could be communicated with safely. There should be lots of reassessing across the variety of those who wish to destroy Israel… |
Although relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have been tense throughout the history of the two states' coexistence, Riyadh and Tel Aviv have long ceased to see themselves as enemies.
Thus, the “political-economic boycott” against Israel since 2005 has existed only formally.
Trade between the countries was conducted through small "shell" firms, and the intelligence services regularly exchanged information on the activities of terrorist and criminal groups, as well as on Iran's activities in the Middle East. Interaction in this format continued until 2020.
Everything changed with the launch of the US-led Arab-Israeli reconciliation program known as the Abraham Accords.
Several Arab countries joined it, including the UAE, with which Saudi Arabia is competing for leadership in the Middle East.
The Kingdom also took some symbolic steps (for example, opening an air corridor for planes flying to Israel), but did not move towards rapid rapprochement.
Riyadh was almost persuaded to reconcile with Tel Aviv in 2023 - in exchange for Washington's assistance in developing Saudi "peaceful atom", lifting restrictions on the purchase of weapons and equipment, large-scale investments in industry, and also raising Saudi-American relations to the level of a special strategic partnership.
| The Saudis were not demanding anything like that when Donald Trump was in the White House, but President Biden does not understand the art of the deal like they do. |
MOOD SWINGS
Despite the fact that the Saudis were among the first to condemn Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, Riyadh has long tried to balance between “protecting the historical rights” of the Palestinian people and its own political and economic interests, continuing to interact with Israel behind the scenes.
In the first months, the kingdom probably even hoped to finalize the normalization deal with minimal damage to its image.
In addition, Riyadh tried for some time to act as a peacemaker, proposing the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative as a basis for a settlement.
The Saudi "peace plan" proposed an end to the Arab-Israeli confrontation in exchange for the liberation of territories occupied by Israel following the Six-Day War of 1967 and the official recognition of Palestine with its capital in East Jerusalem.
However, due to “irreconcilable differences” between Israel and Hamas, this could not be achieved, although the US took into account certain recommendations from its Arabian allies when developing the “Biden Plan”.
Finally, Saudi Arabia “lent a shoulder” to Israel during Iran’s Operation True Promise (April 2024), covering part of its airspace. This was also supposed to contribute to further rapprochement between the two countries.
However, over time, Saudi goodwill towards Israel has increasingly given way to irritation.
The main reason is the fickle policy of the Israelis. Despite Washington's generous promises, it cannot guarantee that Saudi Arabia will get what it expects from the deal.
Riyadh has repeatedly observed how easily Israel changes the rules of the game and goes against already agreed agreements, disregarding not only the interests of its regional counterparts, but also the position of the White House.
The Saudis are right to fear that the "gentlemen's agreements" reached under the auspices of the United States will be violated by the Israelis. Especially if the party affiliation of the White House administration changes and no one will particularly monitor the fulfillment of the promises of their predecessors.
Pessimism about the implementation of the "peace plan" for Gaza is also contributing to the change in mood. The recent meeting of mediators with Hamas representatives in Doha ended in nothing.
The movement continues to demand that Israeli troops leave Gaza completely before it is ready to begin a hostage exchange. Israel, meanwhile, continues to entrench itself on the southern border of the enclave and is hostile to any suggestions to leave its positions.
The flywheel of the conflict continues to spin: for the first time since the start of Operation Iron Swords in Gaza, the Israeli Cabinet updated its goals, including in the list “the safe return of northern residents to their homes.”
This formulation very transparently hints at Israel's intention to make a dash to the border in the near future in order to engage Lebanese Hezbollah in battle. For Riyadh, this is fraught with the activation of the entire network of Iranian proxy forces and new outbreaks of tension on its borders.
In addition to all this, Saudi Arabia is irritated by the fact that the US is trying to resolve selfish issues under the plausible pretext of normalizing and renewing allied ties – to squeeze Chinese companies out of the Saudi market and limit the military-political dialogue between Beijing and Riyadh.
The kingdom, which claims the status of a regional pole of power, does not intend to tolerate such an open encroachment on national sovereignty.
IN YOUR FAVOR
The timing of this demonstration of determination is very opportune: there are less than two months left before the US elections, and the “Saudi revolt” (as well as the likely failure of the Gaza deal) will “count” for Joe Biden , whose political career is approaching its end anyway.
While the leading presidential candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump , are hardly feeling the effects of the temporary cooling in US-Saudi relations.
Riyadh understands perfectly well that the new White House administration cannot do without an “anchor” ally in the Persian Gulf, which was able to maintain a balance between Palestine and Israel, without allowing a critical tilt to either side.
So, after the failure of the “Biden Plan” for Gaza, Washington will have no choice but to accept the Saudi concept of a settlement, making Riyadh the key mediator in the negotiations.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia does not plan to finally remove the issue of normalizing relations with Israel. Given its flexibility in the issue of supporting Palestinian statehood, the Israelis' "demonstration of readiness" to work on the project will be quite sufficient for it.
True, the conditions for rapprochement will differ significantly from those put forward a year ago - this time in favor of Riyadh. In this sense, it will remain in the black regardless of who occupies the White House.
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