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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Attack on the decline |
| 2024-10-12 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Text from the Telegram account of Russian military Historian Alexey Isaev. Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics. [ColonelCassad] I recently expressed an idea in the comments, I will expand a little more fully. Can an army that is on the wane of its power launch an offensive, take territory? Launch an offensive in the Kursk region, in short. Of course it can. Historical examples here are the Wehrmacht offensive in the Ardennes in 1944 and on Lake Balaton in 1945 (not only the March "Spring Awakening", but also the "Conrads" in January). The goal of the offensive in the Ardennes (codename "Wacht am Rhein", "Watch on the Rhine" - such a patriotic German song) was quite tangible - the port of Antwerp. Indeed, Antwerp, when the issue with the island of Walcheren at the mouth of the Scheldt was resolved in late autumn 1944, significantly facilitated the supply of the Allied armies on the approaches to Germany. Before that, they were suffocated by the need to drive cargo in a roundabout way by car (Red Ball Express) with a number of ports occupied by German garrisons in "fortress" mode. I emphasize: this is not a repetition of the "sickle strike" of May 1940. A much simpler and more tangible goal. Field Marshal Model's proposal to launch a local counterattack in this context was noticeably worse. It did not have the same effect as the capture of Antwerp. Which would have forced the Allies to get stuck on the German border for a long time. Did the Americans uncover the German preparations? They did not. Including due to the fact that "Ultra" intercepts radiograms in a maneuverable battle, but does not intercept telephones on a static front, and maintaining radio silence is the basis of operational camouflage. However, what do we see in the case of the army "coming from the fair"? Firstly, the operation was prepared for a very long time due to, among other things, the need to accumulate fuel. Because in September the tap with Romania was turned off (by the forces of the 2nd and 3rd Ukrainian) and the allies seriously worked on the synthetic fuel plants. Secondly, we see that despite all the tricks, Antwerp was far away. It turned out to be only a wedging with a limited result from all points of view. What was the "Antwerp" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces? Kursk NPP? Probably. We'll find out later. About Balaton next time. And yes, there is a third question: will there be an operation "Nordwind" and where? The enemy did not achieve the goals with the Kursk NPP and the Lgov-Kurchatov highway and the offensive gradually fizzled out. The consequences are now coming. But of course attempts to turn around the bad operational situation by tactical means will continue, mainly with the support of the West. |
| Posted by:badanov |