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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | |
| Potential Front: Why Syria Isn't Going to War with Israel | |
| 2024-10-26 | |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Dmitry Polyakov
In early October 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a ground operation in southern Lebanon. Even though the advance in some areas was only a few hundred meters, the operation caused enormous damage to the Land of the Cedars. Moreover, it demonstrated Israel's unwillingness to stop hostilities, which means the risk of the current conflict spreading to other territories is quite high. ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONT COULD BE SYRIA (SAR). Since last autumn, the expert community and the media have been talking about the possibility of military actions spreading to its territory. However, the country's authorities are exercising maximum caution and are not escalating. Although Syria is a member of the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" project, Damascus is trying in every way not to get involved in the current conflict. The army is not involved in combat operations, and support for the Palestinian and Lebanese "resistances" is mostly declarative. Moreover, unlike the Lebanese Hezbollah, which began striking Israeli targets as early as October 8, 2023, the pro-Iranian militias located in the SAR practically do not strike the territory of the Jewish state, and most of their attacks are concentrated on American military bases. The chosen political course of the Syrian government has become the reason for various rumors. Thus, the Israeli publication Be-hadrei Haredim published an article about how Syrian President Bashar al-Assad allegedly sent a message to Iran and Hezbollah. It says that Syria does not want to be drawn into the war in Lebanon. This information immediately became the reason for various rumors about Damascus distancing itself from Tehran. IS SYRIA DISTANCING ITSELF FROM IRAN? First of all, the information presented in the pages of the ultra-Orthodox Hasidic newspaper should be divided into two. The authors are passing off wishful thinking as reality. Today, there is no talk of Syria distancing itself from Iran, nor is there any reduction in the Islamic Republic’s influence within the country. Over the 13 years of the internal Syrian armed conflict, Tehran has been able to deeply penetrate many spheres of life in the SAR. In addition to the military presence that is most often discussed, Iran has seriously entrenched itself in the economy. Key economic facilities of the state have come under its control. Iranian goods are present on the shelves of almost all Syrian stores. In addition, Tehran has formed a network of various cultural and social structures working with the local population and creating a layer of Iranian-oriented citizens. Moreover, Syria has a direct dependence on Iran in the energy sector. The SAR has been experiencing an energy crisis for several years now, due to a fuel shortage. The reason is that more than 80% of Syrian oil is produced in the Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria (AASVS), which is controlled by the Kurdish authorities. After the United States imposed a de facto embargo on Damascus on exports from the Euphrates region, there is an acute shortage of fuel in areas under government control. Under current conditions, Syria is dependent on external energy supplies, most of which are provided with the help of Iran. It is noteworthy that the course chosen by the Syrian authorities in the current conflict seems to suit Tehran. A few days after the start of Israel's ground operation in southern Lebanon, the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Damascus. In his statement, Abbas Araghchi deliberately did not mention Syria among the parties to the conflict, mentioning only the Palestinian and Lebanese "resistance". The position presented is consistent with the words of the late Hassan Nasrallah. The former Hezbollah Secretary General said that Syria is unable and unwilling to participate in military operations. However, its role is limited to indirect support, which involves ensuring the transit of cargo for the Lebanese party through its territory. Thus, the members of the "Axis of Resistance" understand the real capabilities of Damascus and do not demand that it enter the conflict. Therefore, it is hardly possible to say that Syria has distanced itself from Iran. Most likely, its position was coordinated with a key ally. SYRIA'S POSITION Hassan Nasrallah accurately explained the political course chosen by Damascus. After 13 years of its own armed conflict, the Syrian economy is unable to withstand intensive military operations, and therefore the SAR leadership does not want to participate in them. Today, the country already has a lot of unresolved problems, and the key one is the severe socio-economic crisis. The SAR army is exhausted and does not have the ability to fight on its neighbor's territory as during the First Lebanon War. Moreover, the escalating conflict in the Land of the Cedars has already caused great damage to the Syrian economy. Hundreds of thousands of refugees have moved to the SAR. According to the UN, as of October 20, their number exceeded 420 thousand people. Moreover, more than half are Syrians who fled to Lebanon several years earlier, escaping from the civil war. In addition, existing trade relations were disrupted. Beirut is a major hub for Damascus's imports. But today, cross-border trade has slowed significantly after Israel destroyed several border crossings. The disruption of supply chains has caused prices to rise for many categories of goods, but most of all for fuel. A liter of gasoline is sold at 25,000 lira (about $1.50). At the same time, the jump in fuel prices has had an indirect impact on the cost of other essential goods. Given the overall situation in Syria, the government's reluctance to get involved in a confrontation with Israel is understandable. Damascus is interested in survival, and participation in the conflict will completely destroy the existing fragile peace. Meanwhile, Assad can present his course as agreement with the proposal of the Arab countries. Earlier, the media reported that the UAE asked the SAR to remain neutral and refrain from escalation. The Gulf monarchies have long sought to reduce Iran's influence in Syria and synchronize its foreign policy in accordance with their course. At the current stage, the Arabian states advocate non-intervention in the conflict and its de-escalation. Given the ability of the Syrian authorities to balance between several centers of power, it is quite likely that Damascus will try to turn the current situation to its advantage and use it to speed up the process of normalization with Arab countries. | |
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