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| Europe |
| 'GRU Agent' Will Help Ceausescu's Heirs Lift a Long-Term Curse |
| 2024-11-19 |
| Direct translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Igor Ivanenko [REGNUM] Next Sunday, Romanians will vote for the president of the republic. A week later, elections will be held for the country's bicameral parliament. And then, a week later, there will be an almost inevitable second round of voting for the head of state. Among the candidates for the presidential post, the highest rating is given to the Prime Minister and leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) Marcel Ciolacu. His political force is also likely to receive the largest parliamentary faction. However, these starting positions do not guarantee victory for the Social Democrats. For example, in 2004 and 2014, the SDP candidates won the first round of the presidential elections by a significant margin. However, in both cases, they failed to take the post of head of state, since other political forces consolidated around their opponents. The reason for this is the perception of the PSD as the successor of the Romanian Communist Party and the corresponding attitude towards it on the part of liberal and national-conservative forces. Of great importance was also the opposition from foreign centers of influence, which feared the victory in Bucharest of too independent politicians capable of reviving the multi-vector diplomacy of Nicolae Ceausescu. For Colaku to win the current elections, it is very important that a competitor who cannot unite the diverse protest electorate against the Social Democrat makes it to the second round. The leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Unification of Romanians (AUR), Gheorghe Simion, fits this parameter best. By Romanian standards, AUR is a “Eurosceptic” party, which, on the one hand, takes it outside the mainstream, and on the other, makes it very popular among voters. Simion's political force declares the restoration of Romania's state sovereignty, which was effectively lost in the EU, traditional values, support for Romanians living abroad, and, conversely, curtailment of support for Ukraine. The party leader himself has a rating that allows him to get to the second round. By the way, according to a recent poll commissioned by Newsweek-Romania, only 35% of the country's citizens support the current policy of official Bucharest towards Russia, while 34% condemn it. The very likely fact that Simion will make it to the finals of the presidential race will largely mean that Çolak will be able to lift the long-standing curse on the left, whose representatives have been unable to occupy the Cotroceni Palace, where the residence of the heads of state is located, for two decades. Because it is difficult to imagine that Simion will be supported by liberal circles or the European bureaucracy, even in defiance of Çolak. The opponents of the SDP understand this very well. That is why several days ago, Simion was accused, with reference to the Ukrainian special services, of alleged contacts with a Russian GRU agent. The accusation was voiced by the head of the joint commission of the chambers of the Romanian parliament for the control of the special services, Ioan Kirteș. At the same time, he is a member of the National Liberal Party (NLP), whose leader also has a high chance of making it to the second round of the presidential elections. The current leader of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, by the way, comes from the NLP and during the last two election campaigns brilliantly played out a strategy of mobilizing the liberal and conservative electorate against the “heirs” of Ceausescu. Is it any wonder that Social Democrat Ciolacu has come out strongly in defense of nationalist Simion and demanded the senator's resignation for spreading false information? Moreover, the Prime Minister has stated that there is no evidence of Russian interference in the Romanian elections. On November 16, Cholaku published a letter from the Security Service of Ukraine on the reasons for denying entry to the AUR leader into the territory of this state. It says nothing about his connections with the GRU. By and large, he is only charged with “discrediting Ukraine in the international arena and promoting unionist ideas.” The latter refers to Simion’s statements about the revival of Greater Romania, including Northern Bukovina with its center in the now Ukrainian city of Chernivtsi. For Simion, this scandal became an excellent PR campaign in the run-up to the upcoming elections, especially since about a quarter of voters have not yet decided who to vote for in the first round. By helping the Eurosceptic nationalists, the PSD is also trying to expand its room for manoeuvre when creating a government coalition in the new parliament. Although the most likely outcome is the re-establishment of an alliance between the PSD and the PNL, the representative AUR faction could allow the Social Democrats to retain control of the executive branch even without the Liberals. This means that the positions of Ciolaku’s allies in the negotiations for ministerial portfolios will be strengthened. However, this same strategy also poses a hidden threat to the SDP. The fact is that the positions of Eurosceptics are especially strong in the east of Romania, in the region of historical Moldova with its center in Iasi. This same region, along with historical Wallachia, is also an electoral "fiefdom" for the Social Democrats. In this regard, there is a danger that the SDP, having helped the AUR in achieving tactical goals in the presidential elections, may lose parliamentary mandates, which will go to the nationalists who are gaining popularity. The nearest future will show who will become the new head of Romania and how the seats in its parliament will be distributed. The success of AUR, and especially its entry into the government coalition, may become an unpleasant surprise for Kyiv politicians. However, in any case, it is unlikely that a game involving Ukrainian special services against the leader of Romanian Eurosceptics will add popularity to official Kyiv among Romanians. In terms of support for their eastern neighbor, they are already the most skeptical nation in the EU. |
| Posted by:badanov |