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Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Eliminating Hezbollah's Voice Will Be a Problem for the Trump Administration

2024-11-22

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] The IDF recently reported the elimination of another high-ranking Hezbollah official. The target was Mohammed Afif, the head of the information service and a close associate of several secretaries general of the movement, also known by the informal nickname "The Voice of Hezbollah."

Despite the fact that Afif's killing has seriously complicated the search for a compromise between Israel and Hezbollah, the US continues to rush them to cease fire. However, such haste may eventually lead to even greater problems for Washington.

There’s not much longer to rush — President Trump’s priorities are very different than those of the current team.

THE MOST VALUABLE FUNCTIONARY
Mohammed Afif belonged to the generation of the “founding fathers” of Lebanese Hezbollah; at the time of its liquidation, he had been in the movement for more than 40 years, more than half of which were spent in the information block.

He received his nickname "The Voice of Hezbollah" for his significant contribution to the formation and development of the movement's information strategy. It was Afif who brought the information coverage of Hezbollah's activities beyond the "party" media.

Official comments from the movement's functionaries began to appear in authoritative regional and international publications. Under his leadership, representatives of the Hezbollah press service began to hold full-fledged press conferences.

In addition, over the past decade, Afif has consistently served as a liaison between Hezbollah and the Lebanese population, providing detailed explanations of the movement's policies and goals.

“Here’s what you need to shut up about and accept from the Master Branch of the Master Religion, guys. Off you go and practice that while we attack the Zionist Entity to protect you from them.”

With the start of the IDF's limited operation in southern Lebanon, this part of its authority has acquired critical importance, especially in the context of responding to the increasing frequency of Israeli attacks on Lebanese population centers.

"You don't win your war by air superiority, bombing, or killing civilians, including women and children," he said.

That’s standard doctrine. And why the IDF has entered southern Lebanon on foot and in tanks.

It should be noted that Afif often acted not only as one of the key spokesmen for Hezbollah, but also as the Secretary General's envoy for special assignments. Active interaction with Lebanese and Syrian politicians, as well as with representatives of other groups of the pro-Iranian "Axis of Resistance" took place through him.

All this made Afif one of Hezbollah's most valuable functionaries.

ISRAEL IS LOOKING FOR FRIENDS
The elimination of Afif opened a new page in the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah.

For the first time in a long time, the Israelis chose as a target not a field commander or a top official, but a representative of a “related” structure not directly involved in military operations. Although the IDF Spokesperson’s Service tried to gloss over this point, indicating that the liquidated Hezbollah spokesman, due to his closeness to the movement’s top leadership, “made a significant contribution” to the planning and organization of operations against Israel.

Such actions are intended not only to decapitate key Hezbollah structures, but also to disrupt its interaction with other loyal forces in Lebanon. In particular, with the Shiite Amal party, which joined the “united front” against Israel in December 2023, but has lost its enthusiasm over the past year.

Israel is also trying to take advantage of Hezbollah's temporary absence of a new spokesman to sow distrust between the movement and other forces in Lebanon and beyond.

Thus, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar regularly calls on “oppressed minorities in the Middle East” to come closer to Israel in order to jointly confront Iran and its proxy groups. And the most convenient way to test such a strategy is within the framework of the current limited ground operation against Hezbollah, since Israel has sufficient resources to conduct such experiments without compromising the overall effectiveness of the campaign.

Among Tel Aviv's potential allies in the Lebanese direction, they see the Druze (more than 280 thousand of them live in Lebanon). The Israeli side is unobtrusively trying to win over the leader of the Lebanese Druze, Walid "Wally" Jumblatt, to its side, appealing, among other things, to the negative precedent of a Hezbollah rocket hitting the Druze village of Majd al-Shams in July 2024.

Although there has been little progress in the dialogue so far, tensions between Hezbollah and Jumblatt's supporters continue to mount.

EVERYONE IS STALLING FOR TIME
Despite the general complication of the negotiating environment caused by Afif’s death, the United States – as the key mediator in the dialogue between Hezbollah and Israel – continues to adhere to the previous settlement strategy.

US President Joe Biden's special envoy to the Middle East, Amos Hochstein, who is overseeing these negotiations, believes that a ceasefire agreement is "within reach" and that new rounds of escalation of the conflict do not affect the parties' intention to reach an agreement.

He keeps saying that, and technically it’s true — a small distance contains infinite points inside it.

He visited Lebanon the day before, and then met with Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on November 21.

This conviction is dictated by the need for the Biden administration to obtain at least one successful example of a Middle East settlement before leaving office in January 2025.

Need and get are not necessarily the same. Oh well.

It is possible that, in pursuit of this goal, Washington will try to force both parties to conclude a formal agreement. This is indicated, in particular, by the White House's readiness to include in the draft treaty a clause on the parties' right to self-defense. Just a couple of months ago, this was considered an unacceptable step.

It still is unacceptable to Hezbollah, no matter what the Lebanese politicians and people might be willing to accept.

On the other hand, the question of the sustainability of the security guarantees offered by Washington remains open - especially in light of the imminent change of administration in the White House. Both Israel and Hezbollah understand this well, and therefore they are in no hurry to agree to the conditions put forward, although they do not reject them completely.

Each side is stalling for time as much as possible.

At the same time, Hezbollah still intends to respond proportionately to the death of its press secretary, as its high-ranking officials regularly remind us. As Secretary General Naim Qassem previously stated, a “blow to the heart of Beirut” will be followed by a counterblow “to the heart of Tel Aviv.”

Uh huh. But who will bell the Israeli cat?

And although Hezbollah does not disclose the details of the planned operation, the revenge action (given Afif's weight in the apparatus) will hardly be of a smaller scale than in memory of the previously liquidated Hassan Nasrallah. And this, in turn, threatens a new round of escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, with a rejection of previous agreements and guarantees.

However, the Democrats in the US are not too worried about this: it will most likely be Donald Trump’s team that will have to deal with the crisis.

It’ll be the Israelis regardless, if any of Hezbollah’s efforts actually get beyond the annoyance level.

Posted by:badanov

#2 /\ No problems with Japan in nearly 80 years? I call that "proof of concept."

Posted by: Besoeker 2024-11-22 09:36

#1 "You don't win your war by air superiority, bombing, or killing civilians, including women and children,"
We did in Japan...

Posted by: Glenmore 2024-11-22 09:25

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