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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Day3 RUMINT and reports: Assad has fallen and stayed in Moscow, HTS blitzkrieg continues, backed by Turkey, 255 toes up
2024-11-30
See Day 1 here, Day 2 here and here.
See today’s posts, including this one here, here, here, and here.
[X]

As of noon Friday ET:
Assad Loyalists and Russians in Headlong Retreat After Surprise Rebel Offensive on Aleppo

[RedState] A surprise offensive by a coalition of anti-Assad groups has captured the key city of Aleppo and sent Assad's troops and their Russian auxiliaries into a retreat to find more defensible lines. The offensive is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a faction that until 2017 was considered to be a subsidiary of Al Qaeda. It is allied with several Turkish-backed militias during this offensive. Official reports place the insurgent forces inside Aleppo, but social media reports indicate that Aleppo has fallen except for isolated pockets of resistance.









Russian aircraft flying in support of the Assad regime have responded in the most Russian way possible. They are bombing population centers held by the "Free Syrian Army."



Video and imagery of dead Russian troops, both special forces and private military corporations, are appearing.



The situation is very unclear, but it appears that Assad's army has evaporated in the area of the offensive. It remains to be seen if those troops can be rallied and a defensive line reestablished or if Assad will soon be heading for exile in some place that doesn't have an extradition treaty with France.



As of 7 p.m. Israel/Syrian time:
Jihadists, Turkish-backed allies enter Aleppo in lightning assault on Syrian regime
[IsraelTimes] Alliance led by Al-Qaeda’s former Syria branch take control of some 50 towns and villages in Assad regime’s biggest loss of territory in years

Jihadists and their Ottoman Turkish-backed allies reached Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, on Friday, as they pressed a lightning offensive against forces of the Iranian- and Russian-backed government.

The fighting is some of the deadliest in years, with 255 people killed, according to the Britannia-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most of the dead have been combatants but the toll also includes 24 civilians, most killed in Russian air strikes. SOHR, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria and is of unclear funding, has been accused in the past of inflating regime losses.

The offensive began on Wednesday, the same day that a fragile ceasefire took effect in neighboring Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
 between Israel and Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah.

By Friday, the jihadists and their allies had wrested control of more than 50 towns and villages in the north, according to the Britannia-based Observatory, in the government’s biggest loss of territory in years.

They then entered western districts of Aleppo, a city of some two million people that was Syria’s pre-war manufacturing hub.

"Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
 (HTS) and allied factions... were able to enter the outskirts of the al-Hamdaniya and New Aleppo neighborhoods... after carrying out twin suicide kabooms with two booby-trapped cars," the war monitor said.

HTS, a jihadist alliance led by al-Qaeda’s former Syria branch, shelled a student residence in the city, killing four civilians, state media reported.

Syrian and Russian warplanes launched intense air strikes on the rebel enclave around Idlib, where the jihadists are based, carrying out 23 raids, according to the Observatory.

Army reinforcements have arrived in Aleppo, a Syrian security official told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. An army statement said troops had repelled the assault on the city and retaken some positions.

The United Nations
...an organization conceived in the belief that we're just one big happy world, with the sort of results you'd expect from such nonsense...
 Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said "more than 14,000 people —- nearly half are children — have been displaced" by the violence.

Aleppo resident Sarmad, 51, told AFP he could hear "the sounds of missiles and artillery shelling around the clock."

On Thursday, the jihadists and their allies cut the highway linking Aleppo to the capital Damascus, some 300 kilometers (185 miles) south, the Observatory said.

INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS
Kremlin front man Dmitry Peskov on Friday described the situation in Aleppo as "an infringement on the illusory sovereignty of Syria."

He expressed support for "the government of Syria to quickly restore order in this district."

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pledged "continued support for the government, nation and army of Syria," in a phone call with his Syrian counterpart Bassam al-Sabbagh, according to a statement.

The Idlib area has been subject to a Ottoman Turkish- and Russian-brokered truce since 2020. The ceasefire has been repeatedly violated but had largely held.

An AFP correspondent in the rebel enclave saw jihadists advancing in tanks as intense exchanges of fire took place in an area just seven kilometers (a little over four miles) from Aleppo. AFP images showed abandoned army tanks and other military vehicles.

The correspondent said the jihadists and their The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...just another cheapjack Moslem dictatorship, brought to you by the Moslem Brüderbund...
-backed allies took orders from a joint operations command.

Analyst Nick Heras, of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said the fighters were "trying to preempt the possibility of a Syrian military campaign in the region of Aleppo."

According to Heras, the Syrian government and its key backer Russia had been preparing for such a campaign. Russia intervened in Syria in 2015, turning the tide of the civil war that broke out four years earlier in favor of the government, whose forces at the time had lost control of most of the country.

’TOTALLY UNPREPARED’
Other interests are also at stake.

As well as Russia, Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has been propped up by Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
and allied groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Iran-backed militias have a heavy presence in the Aleppo region after providing crucial ground support to the army in its recapture of rebel-held areas of the city in 2016.

Heras said anti-government forces are "in a better position to take and seize villages than Russian-backed Syrian government forces, while the Iranians are focused on Lebanon."

Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman said government forces "were totally unprepared" for the attack.

"It is strange to see regime forces being dealt such big blows despite Russian air cover and early signs that HTS was going to launch this operation," Abdel Rahman said.

"Were they depending on Hezbollah, which is now busy in Lebanon?"

Another rumor tied to situation



Syrian authorities close Aleppo airport, cancel all flights — military source
[IsraelTimes] Syrian authorities have closed Aleppo airport and canceled all flights, a military source tells Reuters, as Syrian rebels opposed to President Bashar Assad say they reached the heart of the northern city of Aleppo.

Seen on Facebook — hattip J.:


Rudaw adds the Kurdish perspective:
Clashes between rebels and the army in Syria’s most populous city Aleppo and its countryside have claimed the lives of over 250 people, including civilians, according to a war monitor. Damascus said the escalation serves the objectives of Israel.

"Inshallah, the liberators will enter Aleppo," Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
 (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani said in a video published by opposition media outlets on Friday evening.

He issued directives to his fighters before entering the city, including asking them not to enter people’s houses or commit violations.

The jihadist HTS are leading rebel forces in a surprise offensive launched on Wednesday, seizing territory from government troops for the first time in years. They entered the city of Aleppo on Friday afternoon after taking several villages, according to Syrian opposition media.

The Syrian army said in a statement that they continue to "confront the large-scale attack launched by the armed terrorist organizations" and claimed that the rebel groups have used heavy and medium weaponry as well as drones. It also said that a large number of imported muscle are among them.

"Our armed forces have inflicted heavy losses on the attacking organizations, resulting in hundreds of dead and injured terrorists. Dozens of vehicles and armored carriers have been destroyed, and 17 drones have been shot down and destroyed," the army claimed.

As of Friday, the festivities have claimed the lives of 255 people: 144 rebels, 87 Syrian soldiers and pro-government militia, and 24 civilians, according to a tally by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

HTS, a former branch of al-Qaeda, is the prominent force among dozens of rebel factions in the northwest. The group, which has been internationally recognized as a terror organization, controls large swathes of Idlib as well as parts of Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia provinces.

The festivities have driven large numbers of people from their homes.

Kurdish authorities in northeast Syria (Rojava) called on their institutions to "facilitate the passage of people" fleeing the conflict.

Farhad Shami, spokesperson for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), told Ronahi TV that they are following the developments and said their arch-enemy The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...just another cheapjack Moslem dictatorship, brought to you by the Moslem Brüderbund...
 is behind the HTS-led offensive.

"Our mission is to protect our people and territories... The SDF will act as needed," he added.

Kurdish forces of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) control one neighbourhood in Aleppo as well as Tal Rifaat north of the city, located within a small region of Afrin. Hundreds of thousands of Kurds who fled Turkey’s 2018 military offensive in Afrin are still living in camps in Tal Rifaat.

Rudaw English asked a senior Rojava official about the possibility of a Ottoman Turkish attack on Tal Rifaat.

"Everything is possible now. Tal Rifaat is under threat," said the official, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.
More from the Times of Israel:
Rebel commander in the Jaish al-Izza rebel brigade
…Syrian Sunni Islamist rebel group since 2013. Associated with Turkey’s so-called Free Syrian Army, funded and armed by Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia…
Mustafa Abdul Jaber said the speedy advance was due to insufficient Iran-backed manpower in the broader province. Iran’s allies in the region have suffered a series of blows at the hands of Israel as the Gaza war expanded to the Middle East.

Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive. But Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said Turkey sought to avoid greater instability in the region and had warned that recent attacks undermined de-escalation agreements.

David Carden, UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, said:
“Relentless attacks over the past three days have claimed the lives of at least 27 civilians, including children as young as eight years old,” he told Reuters. “Civilians and civilian infrastructure are not targets and must be protected under International Humanitarian Law.”

Syrian state news agency SANA said four civilians including two students were killed on Friday in Aleppo by insurgent shelling of university student dormitories. It was not clear if they were among the 27 dead reported by the UN official.

Russian and Syrian warplanes bombed the area near the border with Turkey on Thursday to try to push back the insurgent offensive.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said “more than 14,000 people –- nearly half are children — have been displaced” by the violence.
Related:
Jaish al-Izza: 2023-06-09 Turkish military movements in NW Syria spark speculation
Jaish al-Izza: 2022-09-18 Turkey-Syria Border: Turkish Forces and Catspaws Continue Breaching Ceasefire Agreement In NE Syria versus Kurds and Syrian army
Jaish al-Izza: 2022-08-12 Opposition Factions Refuse Damascus-Ankara Convergence
Posted by:3dc

#14  Putin might want to cut his losses. What does he see in that hell hole anyway? Tartus? What else? Is it worth it?
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2024-11-30 16:26  

#13  Next city south is Homs. If that falls Assad is in (even deeper) doodoo. Cuts off the road to the coast, including the Russian port/base at Tartus, as well as access to the Alawite homeland, which is the Muslim sect that supports the Assad regime.

Russian bombing of civilian areas is just going to further piss off the rebels, and give them a reason to lay rocket or drone fire on the Russian bases when/if they're in range.

(And yeah, I wish both sides could lose.)
Posted by: Nero   2024-11-30 14:34  

#12  Rebels in Hama city center in video. Hama has fallen.
Posted by: DarthVader   2024-11-30 13:59  

#11  Russian & Syrian Forces Abandon Hama Air Base
Posted by: DarthVader   2024-11-30 13:48  

#10  See what happens when you stick your neck out too far!!
Posted by: Airandee   2024-11-30 13:48  

#9  Heavy bombardment by Russia currently. 240 estimated deaths among terrorists. Pulling a Ukraine stunt will end just as poorly. Obvious blitz by western media. Russian air superiority now on display. Biden wants to cause as much trouble for Trump as he can. So withdraw troops to allow maximum damage to terrorists.
Posted by: Dale   2024-11-30 13:44  

#8  I think, because Hillary is such a big authority about there and all, we should send her over there to take care of it. Family and friends, hangers on, all of them. With a big appetizer tray.
Posted by: ed in texas   2024-11-30 13:01  

#7  I’m just excited for the worldwide uproar when the killings start happening in big numbers. /sarc
Posted by: Remoteman   2024-11-30 11:41  

#6  Why do I have the feeling that this is a set up buy the Biden boys to give Trump a great big stinking pile of crap to deal with?

Doesn't seem like the kind of thing Biden would do. Wouldn't want to offend the ayatollah, now would we?

And why does Trump need to do anything at all about Syria? Let them be Syrians, whatever that is, as long as they stay in Syria and don't come here.

The lessons of history should be clear by now. When we meddle in places like that we only make things worse.
Posted by: Abu Uluque   2024-11-30 11:13  

#5  Feels hinky. 24 hr (plus) rule in effect.
Posted by: Mercutio   2024-11-30 08:58  

#4  Out of the frying pan, into the fire
Posted by: KBK   2024-11-30 08:43  

#3  Why do I have the feeling that this is a set up buy the Biden boys to give Trump a great big stinking pile of crap to deal with?
Posted by: alanc   2024-11-30 08:22  

#2  Islamists or Russians: Take your poison.
Posted by: European Conservative   2024-11-30 05:40  

#1  I'm rooting for everyone to lose. There are no "good sides" there
Posted by: Frank G   2024-11-30 04:15  

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