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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Taking a Piece of the Pie: Israel Seeks to Make the Most of Syria's Chaos
2024-12-10
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Hard to blame Israel for their reaction.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] The fall of Bashar al-Assad's government and the triumph of his opponents have evoked a variety of emotions among Middle Eastern leaders. Some are looking to the future with fear; others with hope for mutually beneficial cooperation. There are also those who have rushed to emphasize their hidden contribution to the victory over Assad.

For example, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially stated that the change of power in Damascus was the result of Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah.

However, the Israelis do not trust those who are tipped to be part of the new Syrian elite too much. And so, taking advantage of the power vacuum, they are solving their own strategic tasks on Syrian territory.

SUPPRESSED RESISTANCE
Netanyahu is being very truthful when talking about the contribution of Assad's opponents to the victory. The Iranian "Axis of Resistance" was indeed seriously traumatized by the long-term confrontation with Israel in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as in Syria, where Iranian proxies regularly became targets for Israeli aircraft.
Traumatized? What a delightful word.
It is not surprising that Hezbollah, one of the key conductors of Iranian interests on Syrian territory, was weakened by the onset of the regime’s opponents’ offensive and was not ready to bear the brunt of the defense.
Next time don’t start a war you can’t finish, guys.
General Javad Ghafari, who was hastily sent to Syria, was able to organize the withdrawal of combat-ready Hezbollah units, but he never received permission to launch a counterattack.

At the same time, as the Iranians themselves note, Tehran was ready to support official Damascus in the conflict to the last, if an official request had been made by the Assad government. Iranian military advisers did not dare to take responsibility for organizing the defense - given the increased friction with part of the Syrian elite.

SPONTANEOUS DECISION
Against the backdrop of the final disintegration of the Syrian army – and, more importantly, the prospect of the opposition taking up arms in the border regions – Israel decided to act preemptively.

Tel Aviv has sent ground troops into Syria for the first time in 50 years. Israeli army (IDF) officials said a limited contingent had taken up key positions on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, breaking the status quo established after the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

The exact number of the contingent is not disclosed by the Israeli side.
More than you guys can handle — that’s all you need to know.
According to fragmentary reports and footage from the field, it is known that at least two infantry brigades (not at full strength) have been deployed, supported by tanks. At the same time, there has been no report on the deployment of elite paratroop units, and information on the deployment of the Shaldag special forces has also not been confirmed.
Possibly they’re off where you can’t see them, doing things it would greatly upset you to know about…
In addition, the IDF receives constant support from aircraft, which strike at border garrisons and warehouses of Syrian troops, allowing the Israelis to indicate their presence with minimal forces.
Indicate their presence — what a charming locution.
Tel Aviv positions its presence on Syrian territory as purely temporary, due to threats to national security.
That is what the cognoscenti refer to as being diplomatic.
Initially, the General Staff announced the creation of a “security zone” up to 15 km deep, but the IDF quickly went beyond the announced zone.

Israeli units occupied parts of the provinces of Daraa, As-Suwayda and Al-Quneitra, and the geography of airstrikes expanded to the Syrian capital.
Eh? The IAF have been freely bombing sites in and around Damascus for ages.
At the same time, the nature of the Israelis' actions shows that the decision to intervene in Syria was made spontaneously. It seems that the Netanyahu government was not prepared for such a rapid collapse of the Syrian defense and is now trying to squeeze the maximum benefit out of the power vacuum.
President-elect Trump did challenge them to finish things before his swearing in January 20th…
In parallel with the advance of Israeli units, Tel Aviv has launched a dialogue with the Druze communities. It is possible that the Israelis will try to create a semblance of a puppet regime in the new areas in order to shift the task of protecting the border area to the leaders of the Druze religious minority, who live compactly in this area.
Israel gets on well with its own Druze. No reason not to share the joy, especially when the Syrian lot know the territory and the players — and would probably be happier managing their own defence than depending on Israel to get it right.
Official Tel Aviv, apparently, does not believe in the honesty of the leaders of the armed opposition, who publicly demonstrate a desire to peacefully coexist with Israel.
Seriously? The Russians are pulling out, suggesting they strongly don’t believe in HTS honesty on the subject.
DIFFICULTIES FOR TEHRAN
The Israeli invasion of Syria, contrary to expectations, did not provoke a strong reaction from the international community. Many countries chose to ignore Tel Aviv's operation. Some chose to provide the Israelis with the necessary assistance.

For example, the Russian side transferred to Israel two facilities in the Syrian province of Daraa, as well as an observation observatory on Mount Tel Al-Hara, to ensure continuous monitoring of the situation in the border areas.
Really?! How pragmatic.
Only the Iranian authorities have criticized the Israeli intervention, calling it a “violation of the rights of the Syrian people.” However, Tehran’s displeasure is easily explained: Israeli troops are rushing along the Syrian-Lebanese border, trying to cut off the routes of Hezbollah fighters into the territory of the former republic.
To think that only a little over a year ago it looked like all the Mad Mullah’s nefarious plots were coming true. How are the mighty smashed to bouncing rubble.
Given the general instability of the ceasefire in Lebanon, Iranian authorities see what is happening as a marker of imminent Israeli revenge in southern Lebanon.

There is no reason to expect Tel Aviv's enthusiasm to wane anytime soon. After establishing a new status quo in Syria (and eliminating the threat from that direction), Israel is preparing to deploy forces not only against Hezbollah, but also against the Yemeni Houthis - in retaliation for the ballistic missile strikes on Israeli territory.

Under current conditions, Iran will have to take into account not only the threat from the Israelis, but also the risk of the new Syrian authorities participating in the conflict on the side of Tel Aviv, in exchange for the return of part of the border territories.

It is not a fact that such an alliance will be durable (like the Druze puppet state that some Israeli politicians and scholars propose to build in the border area), but it is quite capable of creating tactical difficulties for Tehran and the “Axis of Resistance” it leads.
*Happy sigh* Was that as good for you, dear Reader, as it was for me?

Posted by:badanov

#2  "two infantry brigades (not at full strength)"
Well duh. You forward deploy 2 battalions and hold one back, and rotate them on duty, so everybody eventually gets time off. Also gives you a reserve.
Posted by: ed in texas   2024-12-10 19:08  

#1  Rubble in iran is a god thing!
Posted by: Chesney+Sleting4519   2024-12-10 11:32  

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