Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] 1. Negotiations with HTS regarding our bases are ongoing. The parties are currently exchanging proposals and discussing possible parameters. There are already certain points of contact on a number of parameters. But there are a couple of problematic issues.
2. There are currently no decisions on the complete withdrawal of bases in Latakia and Khmeimim. For now. If we fail to reach an agreement with HTS regarding the bases, we will have to organize the process of withdrawing troops and equipment in full. This is also not a quick process. But I would like to believe that the bases will be preserved. This is easier than negotiating alternatives in other countries.
3. From the remaining strongholds in Syria that were not specified in the agreement on bases in Latakia, our troops are being pulled back in the direction of Tartus or Khmeimim. So far, without any significant incidents.
4. The surplus equipment that is generated in Latakia will be removed, and the group, even in the case of an agreement with HTS on bases, will be reduced due to the absence of previous tasks for it, which required an expanded military presence in different areas of Syria.
5. The Russian embassy in Damascus also remains for now and will probably remain. The security of the external perimeter is currently provided by HTS militants, driving away militants from groups that are not part of HTS (a carbon copy of the situation in Kabul), including with a fatal outcome for some of them.
6. In addition to Assad, a number of high-ranking officials of the previous army and government of Syria are now in Russia in de facto political exile. In the foreseeable future, they are unlikely to be able to return to their homeland and they have currently dropped out of current Syrian politics.
7. The remnants of the Syrian army that went to Iraq are unlikely to be able to represent a combat-ready force now. Perhaps the Iranians will take them under their wing and create formations from Syrians under the wing of their numerous proxy structures. Although the question of the combat capability of the Syrian formations remains in question. But this is already the Iranians' concern.
8. In Syria itself, especially outside the major cities, killings of people associated with the previous government and army, as well as robberies and looting, continue. HTS militants are trying to create the appearance of legality, but outside several major cities, power essentially belongs to various armed gangs that take advantage of the vacuum of power and security. HTS, even if it wanted to, would not be able to stop all this in a short time.
9. Israel continues to consolidate its position in the occupied Syrian territories and demonstrates a desire not only to hold and populate the Golan Heights captured earlier, but also to extend the occupation to new territories. Even HTS was forced to publicly declare that it is against the Israeli occupation and that Israel must stop striking Syria. However, HTS is unlikely to be able to do anything to Israel now.
10. The key question of Syria's future is whether HTS and Turkey will limit themselves to painting Syria green along the Euphrates (including the upcoming capture of Tabqa and Raqqa) or whether there will be an invasion of the mainland Rojava. The US and Turkey are currently negotiating this issue. Everyone understands that without Rojava's oil, the economic situation for "green" Syria will be as unacceptable as it was for the Assad government. Erdogan obviously wants to finally resolve the Kurdish issue while there is still an opportunity. The US, of course, does not want to give up the Kurdish card, which they use to cover up the theft of Syrian oil and maintain their military presence in Syria.
Russia says it evacuated some Russian, Belarusian, North Korean diplomats out of Syria
[IsraelTimes] A special Russian air force flight from the Khmeimim air base in Syria has evacuated some of the Russian diplomatic personnel in Damascus as well as Belarusian and North Korean diplomats, the Russian foreign ministry says.
“The work of the Russian Embassy in Damascus continues,” the crisis situation department of the Russian foreign ministry says on its Telegram messaging channel.
Russia’s RIA state news agency reports, citing the Belarusian foreign ministry, that all Belarusian diplomats have been evacuated from Syria.