Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin.
[ColonelCassad] Regarding the new tactical signs that appeared in the Chernigov region.
It is quite possible that this is for a new attempt at an offensive in the Bryansk or Kursk regions.
Previously, the enemy transferred parts of one of the tank brigades to the Chernihiv region + up to two brigades of the strategic reserve. The potential of the group for the enemy's offensive is estimated at up to 25,000 personnel, 100-120 tanks, up to 600-700 armored fighting vehicles, up to 60 units of barrel artillery (self-propelled guns, towed howitzers) + a certain number of MLRS (including several HIMARS).
The ammunition and equipment now hastily transferred from the EU and the USA are primarily thrown into preparing for the offensive. The same applies to the busification, through which they are trying, among other things, to increase the number of personnel for a potential offensive.
Talk of peace and negotiations is a banal camouflage designed to somehow cover up the preparation for the next stage of escalation.
If we can correctly determine the main areas of concentration and the direction of the main attack, and then provide the necessary defensive measures, the failure of this attack will have the most serious consequences for the enemy. If we miss somewhere, we will get additional operational and tactical problems, which under certain circumstances may interfere with plans for offensive operations in other directions.
So we wait and prepare. The cornered rat will try to rush into attack once more.