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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia Has Lost The Ukraine War. There Will Be Consequences |
| 2025-03-05 |
Long and, I thought, thought-provoking. [RodMartin] Though Russia cannot be fully dislodged from Ukraine, it has lost the war. It did not conquer Ukraine. It also showed its military to be a Potemkin village. Putin will now face the music at home.NOTE: Americans tend to think in terms of absolute victory and unconditional surrender. That rarely happens in the real world, even in American history, and it won’t happen in Ukraine, where Russia will surely hold onto some territory it did not before 2014. But its war aims have been completely defeated. Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine whole (and within a week!). Three years later, that will clearly never happen. It also sought to prove it was still a great power, but its performance has proved the exact opposite: without nuclear weapons, no one would now take its military seriously at all. All of this will have stark post-war consequences inside Russia. George Friedman explains. — RDM |
| Posted by:trailing wife |
| #12 Based on their goals, I'd say both sides are winning. By "sides", I mean NATO/EU vs Russia. Ukraine is just consumables for the West. NATO has achieved their goal of maneuvering Russia into a war that will wear them down militarily and economically. The side quest of deposing Putin by making the average Russian dissatisfied has been less successful. Russia's goals at the start of the Special Military Operation were: Reconnect Crimea - check End the civil war in the Donbass - check Demilitarize Ukraine - on going Secure a defensible position vs NATO - a work in progress The notion that Russia intended to conquer all Ukraine within a week seems to come from General Mark "Thoroughly Modern" Milley. Threatening Kiev made for a good feint, but given the paltry resources devoted to the attack, it is obvious that for the Russians the center of gravity was in the south. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2025-03-05 23:25 |
| #11 Mercutio FTW! |
| Posted by: Frank G 2025-03-05 20:19 |
| #10 agree w Abu that both sides have lost seems to me that Russia has lost more troops and equipment and prestige but Ukraine has lost some fairly valuable territory and given it has lower population than Russia, its loss of troops will be felt for decades as will Russia's |
| Posted by: lord garth 2025-03-05 18:52 |
| #9 NATO could be considered the winner in this war if they achieved their goal of expansion So much for Putin's bright idea for preventing NATO from expanding... cough, cough, Finland...cough cough Sweden. Bosnia and Georgia say they want in too. Gee if you act like a Hun, people just don't trust you anymore. |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2025-03-05 18:50 |
| #8 ^Was talking about SMO. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-03-05 17:51 |
| #7 Russia does have conscription. Conscripts are never sent to fight. They serve in other military capacities. |
| Posted by: badanov 2025-03-05 16:41 |
| #6 NATO could be considered the winner in this war if they achieved their goal of expansion into Ukraine. But, as it stands now, the only winners are the arms dealers and the undertakers. As for the draft or the press gangs or whatever, I think it would be extremely foolish to think that Putin has used all the resources that he could have brought to bear. NATO might FAFO about that if the likes of Starmer, Macron and Merz follow through on their stated intentions. Who knows? I don't. They might succeed. They might be correct in their estimates of Russia's will and ability to fight. But they wouldn't be the first to find out just how wrong they are. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2025-03-05 13:46 |
| #5 ^They don't have press gangs either. They use contracts. Google it. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-03-05 12:58 |
| #4 Grom, we can pretend a draft would be worse than the press gangs. To-may-to, to-mah-to. |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2025-03-05 12:18 |
| #3 if Zelensky doesn't get his head out of his butt If there isn't a regime change. p.s. Notice that Russia manages without draft. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-03-05 11:49 |
| #2 I think Russia's primary goal was to keep NATO out of Ukraine and NATO is still not in Ukraine. But, of course Russia lost. Both sides have suffered untold casualties and that is a loss that people on both sides will feel for the rest of their lives. Both sides have lost. And yet, the war is not over. A lot more suffering could still be coming if Zelensky doesn't get his head out of his butt. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2025-03-05 11:43 |
| #1 In a couple of years, we'll all be posting "I stand with Russia" after Xi invades. |
| Posted by: Mercutio 2025-03-05 10:04 |