by Mikhail Kirillov
[REGNUM] A court has sentenced Marine Le Pen, France's most popular politician according to polls, to four years in prison and a ban on running in the elections. Her supporters are disappointed but are confident that it will help "revive" the party.
Lemons into lemonade is always better than the alternative.The French nationalist leader calls the Paris court's verdict a "black day for democracy." She has publicly pledged not to allow herself to be "removed" from politics and is preparing to appeal.
The day before, on March 31, the head of the parliamentary faction and informal leader of the National Union was sentenced to four years in prison, two of which are suspended, as well as a fine of 100 thousand euros in the case of embezzlement of funds from the European Parliament.
She has also been banned from holding elective office for the next five years, meaning she will not be able to run for president in 2027, although she will retain her parliamentary mandate.
On the eve of the verdict, Marine Le Pen's electoral rating was 37 percent - twice that of the current French President Emmanuel Macron. In addition, this is also a personal record for Le Pen in the last few years. And, of course, many saw this as a political order.
"Today, millions of French people are outraged, outraged to the extreme. I am being eliminated, but millions of French people are being eliminated along with me," Le Pen assured a few hours after the verdict was announced.
The essence of the accusation boils down to a simple formula: Le Pen and her supporters fictitiously hired assistants to MPs for 12 years, and spent the proceeds on financing their party.
The scheme was devised by her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, back in 2004 to supplement the movement's budget. In total, the right managed to save 4.4 million euros, or about 360,000 euros a year - not a huge sum by the standards of French politics.
And although the judges were unable to prove that the money was spent on the personal enrichment of the Le Pen family, this did not stop them from handing down a sentence that was unprecedentedly harsh by French standards.
But while the politician could theoretically challenge the prison sentence and the 100,000 euro fine in a higher court, it seems that the loss of electoral rights cannot be overturned.
"It is impossible to challenge the immediate entry into force of the ban on standing for election," Le Pen's lawyers explain.
In other words, the ban on nomination can only be lifted if the appellate court issues an acquittal.
Now it is time for the National Union to think not only about how to continue the political struggle without its leader, but also, perhaps, about the ways in which they can turn the current crisis to their advantage.
And there really are a lot of options here.
According to polls by the sociological company Elabe, at least 42% of the French are dissatisfied with the court's decision. In their eyes, the court dealt a blow not so much to corruption as to the opposition as a whole.
Such figures are an excellent chance for the right to first rally the protest electorate around itself, and then carry out a soft transition within the party itself.
The most obvious thing the right can do now is to find a new candidate for the presidential seat.
The most likely candidate to succeed Le Pen is considered to be the chairman of the National Rally, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella. However, both he and other party leaders have so far publicly rejected this possibility.
"Justice must hurry. Imagine if I am acquitted after the presidential elections, in which I was unable to participate, what will be the legitimacy of the elected president?" says Marine Le Pen, hinting that she is not ready to give up the fight for the Elysee Palace.
Yes, many foreign right-wingers and Eurosceptics are now speaking out in her support, which adds considerable weight to her words. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni and US President Donald Trump have all shown that they are ready to defend their ideological ally. And this could play a decisive role in the future.
Moreover, in a short period of time, Le Pen managed to attract opposition politicians to her side in France itself.
These include former Republican leader Eric Ciotti and the leader of the far-right Reconquest party, Eric Zemmour. Both have criticized the National Rally in the past, but are now united in their defense of the presidential front-runner.
"It is not for judges to decide who people should vote for. I regret that politicians themselves have given these excessive powers to the justice system. All this needs to be changed," Zemmour is sure.
But, and this is the most surprising thing, the voters themselves, although they express dissatisfaction with the verdict, believe that the forced transition could benefit the National Union.
And here lies both a big problem and a great opportunity for the party to win the support of even more people.
According to a poll by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro, around 57% of party supporters consider Bardell as good a candidate for the post of head of state as Marine Le Pen herself. They are convinced that a new leadership could transform the National Rally from a “family” party into a political force with a much broader political representation.
In addition, six out of 10 French people, including supporters of other political forces, are confident that the court's verdict will not ultimately become an obstacle to the victory of nationalists in the next presidential and parliamentary elections.
To put it simply, a significant part of the right-wing electorate already believes that Marine Le Pen and the National Rally are not the same thing.
Some of them, while agreeing with the disproportionate nature of the punishment, openly express disappointment with their leader. “The Le Pen family, including the late Jean-Marie, was involved in dubious schemes and thus set us, their voters, up,” is how many nationalists are now reasoning.
The same applies to other, less public leaders of the National Rally, who, together with Marine Le Pen, were implicated in the thefts. However, as the investigation showed, Bardell was not among them, which only strengthens his sympathy among voters.
True, there is another possible strategy for the National Rally here, through which both the 29-year-old party chairman and his political mentor could come to power at the same time.
If Jordan Bardella wins the election, he will be able to appoint Marine Le Pen as prime minister without violating the court's verdict.
Of course, in this case, the leader of the nationalists will remain under judicial supervision, but she will have no formal obstacles to leading the government.
Although, of course, a convicted prime minister is a very dubious prospect in the eyes of voters.
True, all this will only be possible in one case - the "National Union" will be able to quickly recover from the shock, redistribute power within the party, consolidate the protest electorate, and then keep it in its orbit until 2027. And this looks like, at the very least, a non-trivial task.
But global political practice in recent years shows that this is very, very real.
The story of Donald Trump's shot ear was perceived by voters in the US as an attempt by "liberal globalists" to eliminate a non-systemic competitor and brought him huge political dividends. No legal proceedings against the Republican, which have been dragging on for many years, could beat the media effect of the "heroic" incident in Pennsylvania.
The same applies to the assassination attempt on Robert Fico, which only strengthened the reputation of the leader of the Slovak right.
True, there are also examples of the opposite in the European right-wing camp. For example, this happened to the candidate for the presidency of Romania, Calin Georgescu, for whom the presidential race, judging by everything, will end with a real prison term.
In other words, the “crisis of March 31” will require the National Rally not only to be united in the fight against the biased bureaucracy, but also to undergo a rapid internal transformation. After all, given the instability of the government coalition of the left and the center, the chance to take revenge in this fight may present itself to Le Pen much sooner than many think.
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