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| Economy |
| Will Hoarders Spark Run On Imported Goods? These Are The Most-Exposed US Retailers |
| 2025-04-04 |
| [ZeroHedge] Goldman analysts Brooke Roach, Kate McShane, and others earlier today provided clients with a breakdown of Trump's reciprocal tariffs: On April 2nd, President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. This includes a 10% tariff increase on all countries (excluding Mexico and Canada) and a higher rate of increase on select countries with trade deficits, set to take effect on April 5th and April 9th, respectively. We believe the most material impact to our retail coverage from the announcement is the increase in tariffs on key sourcing partners for retail such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Cambodia. China: Tariffs on China move to 54% (a 34% increase vs. the 20% tariff already in effect). Tariffs broadened to key sourcing partners: Tariffs on other key sourcing partners for U.S. retail are set to be implemented, including Vietnam (46%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (37%), Italy (20%), India (27%), and Cambodia (49%). Imports from the European Union will also be subject to a 20% tariff. Canada and Mexico: The announcement maintains tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Exemptions under USMCA will remain, which exempt compliant products from the 25% tariff rate on both countries. Should current orders be terminated, USMCA compliant products would receive preferential treatment while non-USMCA compliant goods would be tariffed at a 12% rate. Material increase to softlines tariff rate overall: On our calculations, the announcement implies a ~38% weighted average tariff rate for total apparel and footwear imports to the U.S. Given the tariff breakdown and timeline, Roach and McShane provided clients with a "China Tariff-O-Meter," highlighting companies in their retail coverage whose supply chains are heavily exposed to China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Cambodia. From their Softlines coverage, companies such as Warby Parker, Torrid Holdings, Groupe Dynamite, Nike, Yeti Coolers, and SharkNinja have high exposure to China and other Asian countries targeted by Trump's upcoming round of tariffs. In other words, the products from these companies entering U.S. ports in the coming days will be subjected to sizeable tariffs. In their Hardline coverage, companies such as Floor & Decor, Lowe's, RH, Williams-Sonoma, Target, Dick's Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, and Five Below have elevated or high supply chain exposure to China or other Asian countries. |
| Posted by:Skidmark |
| #6 I wonder what Viktor Bout is doing these days. He was into making deals. |
| Posted by: SteveS 2025-04-04 20:29 |
| #5 Some of my feeds are like, "Come purchase your overseas ammo (PMC, for example) before tariffs take place." Other feeds, "The reason your new Nintendo Switch will be more expensive and hard to find is because Trump tariffs." Sure, OK, whatever. And a third, "Wall Street has lost $10 Trillion! because Trump tariffs!!#@!", from the Occupy Wall Street associates, natch. Now, if you remember, something similar with Ammo happened with the Obama ban on overseas/Russian ammo and etc. and -Iam Malcomlm- "Life found a way." Maybe Lake City, example, gears it up. The catch might be Prvi Partizan which makes some 'off broadway' sizes. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2025-04-04 20:03 |
| #4 Wonder if offshore ammo is exempt. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2025-04-04 14:35 |
| #3 ^ Or that cheap crap from Temu |
| Posted by: Frank G 2025-04-04 13:10 |
| #2 With the possible exception of Lowe's, Not A Problem. And that's only because they're closer. And don't forget about Harbor Freight, where literally everything came from China except the clerks. |
| Posted by: ed in texas 2025-04-04 13:09 |
| #1 Seems like everything sold thru Amazon comes from China. Bozo may need to downscale his wedding plans. |
| Posted by: Injun Hatrack6212 2025-04-04 12:58 |