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| Arabia | |
| Not Just the Houthis: The Red Sea Battle Is Turning Point in Africa | |
| 2025-04-05 | |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Leonid Tsukanov [REGNUM] The civil war in Sudan has reached a turning point - after two years of trench warfare, government forces have begun to push back rebel troops along the entire front line. The sharp strengthening of the ruling faction is associated with the emergence of a strong patron for Khartoum. Saudi Arabia, which played the role of mediator between the central government and the rebels for more than two years, eventually sided with the government camp, which led to a rapid change in the balance of power. However, the Saudis' joy at the success of their new protégés was overshadowed by the fact that Iran has been on the side of the de facto ruler of Sudan, the chairman of the Transitional Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, for at least six months. At the same time, he enjoys the same favor with official Khartoum as the royal court. A somewhat paradoxical situation has developed: countries that were formally (even taking into account the cautious detente) on opposite sides of the barricades suddenly found themselves in the same militant camp in Africa, and even bet on the same leader. True, the Sudanese are in no hurry to choose a main ally, because with great victories new well-wishers appear. Sometimes even more powerful. "LOW INTENSITY" The civil war in Sudan has been ongoing since 2023, although its roots go back to 2019, when the “eternal president” Omar al-Bashir was overthrown. The leading role in the coup was played by the then commander of the national armed forces, al-Burhan, and the head of the Sudanese commandos, Muhammad Hamdan Daglo. It was they, according to the conspirators' plan, who were supposed to ensure a peaceful transfer of power to a new government that would be "cleansed" of al-Bashir's agents of influence. However, the effect was the opposite: yesterday's allies became sworn enemies and by 2021 they plunged the country into civil war. Despite the low intensity of fighting compared to other African crises, the conflict was bloody. Over 20,000 people died in two years, and more than 14 million were displaced – with the total population of the country being 50 million. The number of countries involved in the conflict is also striking. Although officially only Sudanese factions are conducting military operations, behind them are Arab and African partners; foreign intelligence services (including, for example, Ukrainian military intelligence), private military companies and groups of volunteer adventurers from all over the world. In this sense, the civil war in Sudan has rightfully received the additional name “international”. BIG BREAK For a long time, there was no clear favorite in the conflict - fortified areas changed hands, and in the capital there were months-long positional battles. However, this year the initiative passed into the hands of al-Burhan's supporters. By early April, government forces had managed to drive the rebels out of the capital and regain control of several large military bases and arsenals. The supporters of the rebel General Daglo abandoned not only Khartoum, but also the White Nile and Al-Gezira regions, collapsing the front in several places at once and demonstrating their inability to hold territory outside their traditional areas of influence. With the liberation of the capital, the question of who should be considered the legitimate force in Sudan disappeared by itself. Al-Burhan was able to act no longer as the leader of the opposing faction, but as the first person of the transitional period. Notably, al-Burhan's offensive operations have featured prominently in Iranian-made drones that Khartoum secretly purchased from Tehran through intermediaries. It was Iranian UAVs that were used en masse by government troops during assault operations, as well as for aerial reconnaissance and artillery adjustment, which allowed them to achieve first a tactical, and then a strategic advantage over Daglo's units.
US INTEREST Of course, the Saudis and Iranians decided to intervene in the conflict not just like that, but out of dry political calculation. Both Tehran and Riyadh are striving for the Red Sea, trying to turn Sudan into another entry point for their own regional ambitions. And to achieve this goal, they are using all available trump cards. The Saudi leadership boasts of its peacekeeping contribution, in particular the 2023 Jida Declaration, which allegedly allowed al-Burhan's supporters to gain time and saved government troops from being quickly defeated by the rebels. The Saudis also subtly remind us that official Khartoum still has another "debt" to pay. It was thanks to Riyadh's intercession that American sanctions were lifted from Sudan in 2017, which allowed the national army to be rearmed and staffed, and the officer corps to be trained. In fact, many of the commanding officers who later joined al-Burhan owe their careers to Riyadh. However, Iran also has something to counter Saudi influence with. The Sudanese army is in dire need not only of Iranian ammunition and drones, but also of experienced operators and military advisers to suppress the remaining pockets of resistance of General Daglo's supporters. And Tehran is ready to help - in exchange for most-favored-nation status. Khartoum itself does not want to interrupt the “diplomatic upswing” in the dialogue with Iran, which began in July 2024 after a seven-year break. After all, in addition to military aid, Tehran promises investment and assistance in industrial development, which is especially important for strengthening al-Burhan’s power in post-war Sudan. However, for now the government camp is in no hurry to make a choice between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and is extremely evasive in answering behind-the-scenes questions about which of its Middle Eastern friends made the greatest contribution to the return of the Sudanese capital. Commander al-Burhan is interested in maintaining an equidistant position from all key sponsors. Especially since, in addition to the Saudis and Iranians, the "support group" of official Khartoum includes Egypt, Russia, Turkey, Jordan, China and a number of European countries. It is impossible to please everyone at once a priori. Moreover, recently the United States has been trying to join the government camp. The White House, which had not been particularly interested in events in Sudan, suddenly issued a "black mark" to the rebels, accusing them of genocide, and imposed tough personal sanctions on General Daglo. And in doing so, it gave a great diplomatic gift to the al-Burhan camp. Washington's sudden nobility is explained simply: it is important for the United States to prevent Iran from becoming excessively strong in the Red Sea, since this could significantly increase the effectiveness of privateering actions by pro-Iranian proxy groups directed against Israel, as well as create a threat to the security of the US naval group in the region. At the same time, Washington does not plan to openly help the Saudis “conquer” Sudan, so as not to give Riyadh another reason to imagine itself as a regional superpower and thereby maintain the overall controllability of the Saudi elites. | |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 "OK, line up in a circle, just like a blast radius" |
| Posted by: Frank G 2025-04-05 11:25 |
| #1 Trump posts brutal clip showing Houthis being decimated in air strike I love this video. Wonder if it's real. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2025-04-05 03:11 |