by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Over the past few days, the Israeli government has been forced to find a way to approach its own army. An overly harsh reaction to an open letter from retired military pilots dissatisfied with the protracted war in Gaza has provoked similar letters from other units and even the intelligence services.
And although the escalation is taking place mainly “on paper,” without spilling over into street protests and sabotage, for the Israeli government, the wavering army poses a much greater threat than it seems at first glance.
LETTER FROM THE PILOTS
The first sign of the image crisis was an open letter from veterans and reservists of the Israeli Air Force, published on one of the national Internet portals. The letter was signed by more than 950 soldiers and officers - mostly retirees, but among them there were also reservists and contract soldiers.
The signatories lashed out at Benjamin Netanyahu's government, saying the protracted war in Gaza serves the political and personal interests of the Israeli establishment rather than the security interests of the Jewish state.
Moreover, the escalating Operation Power and Sword in the enclave, which the Israeli government is trying to present as the final stage of defeating Hamas, is seen by the retirees as a “deferred military catastrophe.” It puts the hostages still in Gaza on the brink of death, depletes the military reserves, and increases Israel’s vulnerability to external enemies.
The Israeli leadership reacted unexpectedly sharply to the attack against it.
Less than a day after the letter was published, Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir and Air Force Commander Tomer Bar announced at a joint briefing that all "troublemakers" had been dismissed from military service and the reserves. Moreover, according to Bar, the Air Force command "managed to bring to their senses" at least two dozen servicemen, and they withdrew their signatures.
Netanyahu himself completed the public rout of the military pilots. Commenting on the scandal, he called the authors of the letter "an anarchic group of pensioners" that is financed from abroad and undermines domestic stability.
WORKSHOP SOLIDARITY
Although the authorities' harsh response should, in theory, have nipped unrest in the army in the bud, the overly emotional attacks of senior army officials produced the opposite effect.
Within a few days, the appeal of military pilots was supported by representatives of all key branches of the armed forces. The total number of signatories of open letters exceeded three thousand people.
| The IDF has roughly 169,500 active duty soldiers and 465,000 reserves at the moment, totalling 634,500. Three thousand is less than 1/2 of a per cent, a tiny fraction of the total… |
In addition, at least 250 Mossad employees (mostly under pseudonyms), about 150 military doctors and several dozen electronic intelligence officers from Unit 8200 have signed the already published appeals “out of count”.
Despite the fact that many military personnel expressed their civic position as private individuals, the totality of their open letters can well be considered a manifesto of the security bloc and the first sign of the army’s dissatisfaction with the government’s policies.
EVEN THE PRIME MINISTER'S COLLEAGUES ARE UNHAPPy
Of course, the outraged retirees are only a small part of the active reserve of the Israeli armed forces, the total size of which exceeds 500 thousand people. Nevertheless, their discontent can greatly affect the situation inside the country, as well as on the external contour.
Prime Minister Netanyahu's critics point out that the purges of the reserves initiated by him and his protégé in the General Staff weaken the national air force before a hypothetical conflict with Iran.
Official Tel Aviv does not have much faith in the success of American-Iranian negotiations around the nuclear program and is preparing to eliminate the “Iranian dossier” by force, relying on an airstrike on key nuclear infrastructure facilities.
However, skeptics point out that after the scandal with the dismissal of pilots, the Air Force reserve has weakened and, if the operation suddenly goes wrong, the personnel available for operational use may simply not be enough.
The change in mood in the ranks of elite units like the Sayeret Matkal counter-terrorism unit, in whose ranks Netanyahu himself once fought, is also alarming. About twenty commandos, including former colleagues of the prime minister, signed the open letter.
In small Israeli special forces units, the idea of military brotherhood is strongly developed, and any attempts to put pressure on individual soldiers “from above” are perceived as a challenge to the unit as a whole.
And although the Netanyahu government is certainly not at risk of a “palace coup” in the spirit of the Egyptian “Free Officers,” unrest in the army ranks is fraught with the weakening of electoral support for the ruling coalition.
BATTLE FOR SUPPORT
Opposition figures in uniform are rushing to take advantage of the weakening of contacts between the authorities and the army: former Defense Minister Benny Gantz (leader of the parliamentary opposition), former Chief of the General Staff Gadi Eisenkot (State-minded Camp), and retired commander of the IDF's elite units Yair Golan (Democrats Alliance), whose tactical alliance is called the "generals' opposition."
They had previously criticized Netanyahu for his mistakes in the fight for the hostages, and now they have the opportunity to link their own criticism to the position of the “lower ranks of the army” and to enlist their support. Some military pilots who were fired after the scandal have already received an offer from the opposition to join their party actions in support of the hostages and even to become their face.
The opposition has a reason to rush to involve the wounded army men. The planned elections in Israel are scheduled for October 2026, but they may be held early - the coalition has already teetered on the brink of losing legitimacy several times.
Moreover, public opinion polls provide contradictory information.
According to estimates by the conservative Channel 14, in a hypothetical election, the ruling Likud party would still be in the lead and would even show a slight increase in mandates (controlling up to a quarter of the Knesset), while the military-led Statist Camp and Democrats parties would be at the bottom of the list and could, at best, count on a dozen seats in the overall standings.
The weekly newspaper Maariv paints a different picture. In its polls, Netanyahu's party receives at best two dozen mandates, and the gap with the opposition is reduced to a minimum. Moreover, the "generals' opposition", having joined forces, is quite capable of bypassing Likud.
Given the gradual drift of the army towards rejection of the policies of the current government, the likelihood of such an outcome increases significantly.