by Leonid Savin
[REGNUM] On April 22, in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir, unidentified men emerged from a forest near the town of Pahalwam and opened fire on a group of civilians, including tourists, with automatic weapons. According to Indian estimates, 27 people were killed and dozens more were wounded. A little-known group called Kashmir Resistance claimed responsibility.
New Delhi, however, blamed Pakistan directly and immediately expelled Pakistani diplomats, closed the border (the only land checkpoint, Wagah, operates between Lahore and Amritsar) and cancelled visas for all Pakistani citizens.
In addition, the water treaty, which obliges the parties not to restrict river flows - the Indus, Jhelum, Ravi and Chenab flow into Pakistan from India - was denounced. To top it all off, India has launched counter-terrorism operations in the Kashmir Valley and along the Line of Control.
Pakistan, for its part, said the allegations were baseless and in violation of bilateral agreements and UN Security Council resolutions. Indian military advisers in Pakistan were declared persona non grata, visas for Indian citizens were cancelled, and the armed forces were put on alert.
Pakistani airspace is now closed to Indian aircraft. Economic interaction, including contacts through third countries, has been completely suspended.
The Pakistani Prime Minister's office also issued a statement: if India restricts water supplies to Pakistan, it will be considered a military action and any means may be used in response. And the Pakistani stock exchange responded to the incident by falling indicators.
The escalation is obvious, although its real causes are clearly politicized by the Indian side. Pakistan has also suffered from the actions of various extremist and separatist groups for many years, and the annual number of victims in the country is significantly higher than in India.
Well, mutual accusations and placing blame on the intelligence services of the opposing country are commonplace, since the two states have been at odds since the very beginning of their independence from Britain in 1947.
Putting aside historical grievances, the most pressing question is how India, which is much stronger than Pakistan economically and militarily, will behave. But since Pakistan has nuclear weapons, there is a risk of further escalation. It is no coincidence that year after year, Western experts have identified Kashmir as a potential hotbed of regional war.
Assuming that New Delhi follows the logic of previous precedents, India may well launch a limited retaliatory strike. The only question is where and at whom?
The most recent major attack took place in February 2019 in Pulwama, south Kashmir, when a suicide bomber drove up to a police convoy and detonated an explosive device. More than 40 people were killed.
That time, the Jaish-e-Mohammed group claimed responsibility, while India struck in Azad Kashmir, a formally independent quasi-state under Islamabad's protection.
According to a wry Pakistani comment, the strike then “hit trees.” Although India said precision weapons were used to attack a terrorist training camp, there were no casualties on the other side of the Line of Control.
As for the Indian-controlled territory of Kashmir (in addition to the Pakistani part, another historical part of this former princely state is under the control of China, an ally of Pakistan), its special status was revoked in 2019, which led to the loss of some rights by the indigenous people.
As a revenge for this action, which led to a change in the demographic balance, the "Kashmir Resistance" carried out its action. And, probably, the dissatisfied will continue to try to somehow resist the pressure from New Delhi.
In this case, there are interesting nuances that are worth paying attention to.
First, Indian Kashmir is one of the most militarized zones in the world. There are 700,000 Indian soldiers, police, and security personnel on its territory. If they managed to miss such a terrorist attack, then this is a serious failure. And, in addition to the repressive measures promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, some cabinet reshuffles should follow.
Secondly, the attack occurred during the visit of US Vice President J.D. Vance, who publicly called on India to buy more American weapons. As is known, Vance's wife is of Indian origin.
In Pakistan itself, there is concern that the attack was nothing more than a false flag operation to justify some radical measures, like those carried out by Israel in the Gaza Strip. The “Islamic fundamentalism” narrative, given the historic US war on terror and the current position of the White House, could help. And India could benefit not only from diplomatic solidarity between the US and Israel, but also from their military assistance.
On April 24, a military transport plane flew from the US Air Force base in Qatar to India, which Pakistan also regarded as part of some secret plan directed against it, and possibly China. It should also be noted that the military leadership in Pakistan is now closely connected with the British lobby, which is quite critical of the Trump administration.
If we look objectively at the terrorist threats to India, then, in addition to the long-standing problem in Kashmir itself, India has other vulnerable points. One of them is Punjab, where some Sikhs are interested in creating an independent state of Khalistan.
The other is central and eastern India, where the so-called Naxalite belt stretches from south to north. There are armed Maoist groups there, against whom the government is fighting. And while the state of Jammu and Kashmir is conducting a counter-terrorism operation, similar measures are being taken against the Naxalites in another part of the country.
And according to official data, in the Bastar region of the small central state of Chhattisgarh alone, 1,623 civilians were killed by Maoists between 2021 and 2024, and another 228 were killed by explosive devices. Security forces lost 1,292 people.
Based on these figures alone, it can be concluded that violent deaths in Kashmir were far fewer than those caused by leftist extremists. At the same time, India does not officially accuse China or any other leftist governments of supporting these groups.
Probably, in this sense, Pakistan acts in a more familiar role of opponent for the Indian leadership, which is not forgotten by the historical memory of the first (1947-1949) and second (1965) Indo-Pakistani wars for Kashmir, as well as the Kargil War (1999). And the establishment of direct contact with the US administration on the one hand and membership in such structures as BRICS and the SCO on the other significantly expand India's ability to dictate its geopolitical interests.