It seems to me that India already has, and Pakistan prefers to continue using their jihadi proxies, even though they aren’t fooling anyone.
[RedState] India and Pakistain seem to move inexorably toward war as rhetoric and retaliatory action were ratcheted up since a bloody massacre of 26 people by the Pakistain-sponsored group called Kashmir.jpg "Kashmir")
...a disputed territory lying between India and Pakistain. After partition, the Paks grabbed half of it and call it Azad (Free) Kashmir. The remainder they refer to as "Indian Occupied Kashmir". They have fought four wars with India over it, the score currently 4-0 in New Delhi's favor. After 72 years of this nonsense, India cut the Gordian knot in 2019, removing the area's special status, breaking off Ladakh as a separate state, and allowing people from other areas to settle (or in the case of the Pandits, to resettle) there....
Resistance® on Tuesday; see Terror in India: Attack Leaves Dozens Dead During JD Vance's Visit — RedState. This is not the first terror attack in Kashmir, but this one was in a tourist spot, and eyewitness reports say that the button men singled out non-Moslems for execution.
Here's the state of play.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed vengeance. In a rally, he said, "I say to the whole world: India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers." The backers are, of course, Pakistain's intelligence and military apparatus.
Both countries have ordered visa holders from the other to leave immediately. Both sides have expelled diplomats, but there hasn't been an official break in diplomatic relations. Pakistain had suspended all trade with India and put Pak airspace off limits to Indian aircraft.
The nightly "Beating Retreat" ceremony at the Attari-Wagah border crossing is supposed to end with the gate up and a handshake. That has been suspended.
The cut point came on Thursday when India cut off Pakistain's supply of fresh water and announced it was reconsidering the Indus Waters Treaty.
That drew the expected response from Pakistain. Here is a member of parliament, Bilawal
BabyBhutto Zardari
...Pak dynastic politician, son of Benazir Bhutto and grandon of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. As far as is known, Bilawal has no particular talents other than being pretty and being able to memorize political slogans, but he had the good luck to be born into the right family and he hasn't been assassinated yet...
, telling a rally, "I would like to stand here in Sukkur by the Indus and tell India that the Indus is ours and the Indus will remain ours, whether water flows in this Indus or their blood."
India's lone carrier, the INS Vikrant, has sortied to the Arabian Sea.
But, like the Grand Old Duke of York, it soon returned to port, allegedly due to a fire in one of its galleys.
India and Pakistain have fought four wars.
- First Indo-Pakistan War (1947-1948): Fought over Jammu and Kashmir after Pakistan-supported tribal militias invaded, leading to the accession of Kashmir to India. Ended with a UN-brokered ceasefire, establishing the Line of Control (LoC).
- Second Indo-Pakistan War (1965): Sparked by Pakistan's Operation Gibraltar, aiming to infiltrate Jammu and Kashmir. Large-scale battles followed, ending with a UN-mandated ceasefire and the Tashkent Agreement. No significant territorial changes took place.
- Third Indo-Pakistan War (1971): Centered on East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). India intervened in support of Bengali rebels, leading to Pakistan's surrender and Bangladesh's independence. The Simla Agreement followed in 1972.
- Kargil War (1999): Pakistan infiltrated the Indian-administered Kargil in Jammu and Kashmir. India launched Operation Vijay, reclaiming the territory after intense fighting. No formal peace treaty was negotiated.
If war breaks out, it is hard to see how this ends well for anyone. Pakistan is not a match for India in conventional warfare, but both nations have nuclear weapons. Pakistan is estimated to have 170 warheads, and India is thought to have 172. Pakistan reserves the right to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict; India's policy is that it will only use nuclear weapons if it is attacked with them. This virtually ensures any war turns nuclear, as it is difficult to see how Pakistan's Army holds off a determined effort by India and would have to go nuclear to prevent a catastrophic defeat. Adding to the uncertainty, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is heavily focused on tactical nuclear weapons while India's is not. This could lead Pakistan to believe it could use battlefield nukes and not risk a disproportionate nuclear response.