by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] A new flashpoint has erupted in Syria, this time centered on the Druze, an ethno-religious minority largely concentrated in the disputed Golan Heights.
A series of armed clashes between Druze militias and government forces has provoked the expansion of the conflict and the involvement of external players.
And at the same time, it gave Turkey and Israel a new reason to compete for influence in Syria.
COLD WORLD
Relations between the Druze communities and the new Syrian authorities can be described as tense. Damascus keeps a suspicious eye on this minority, especially after the "As-Suwayda Military Council", representing one of the Druze factions, tried to declare autonomy with the prospect of secession in February 2025.
At that time, the conflict was resolved only thanks to the intervention of third parties, and the parties reached an agreement on peaceful coexistence and the integration of local militias into the new armed forces.
Nevertheless, there are still many figures in the ranks of yesterday’s rebels who believe that the “cold peace” with the Druze is not beneficial to the country and that the problem of “hidden separatism” needs to be solved radically.
And very soon such a pretext presented itself. On April 29, an audio recording containing anti-religious attacks and allegedly made on behalf of the southern Druze was distributed on the Internet.
Moreover, the authorship was attributed not to an ordinary fighter, but to a local spiritual authority, Sheikh Marwan Kiwan. And although Kiwan quickly disputed the authenticity of the recording, the accusations were enough to stir up anti-Druze forces.
By the end of the day, several hundred fighters, identifying themselves as "government forces," arrived in the city of Jaramana, where the sheikh lived, to detain Kivan and bring him to trial. However, the operation ended in nothing: the loyalists suffered losses and left the settlement.
FIGHTING IN THE SUBURBS
Two days later, fighting began in the city of Ashrafiya Sahnaya, located near the Syrian capital, the reason for which was the same ill-fated audio recording. Supporters of official Damascus fired at several objects of the local community, the Druze responded with raids on the headquarters of the Syrian special services.
Unlike the incident in Jaramana, the fighting in the Damascus suburbs was bloodier. Both sides lost at least twenty fighters. The clashes killed Druze Sheikh Wahid al-Balu, who had previously acted as a mediator between the communities and the new authorities.
The situation was assessed differently in the capital. If the first clashes with the Druze were "put on the back burner", then the new escalation was perceived as a manifestation of a systemic threat.
Official Damascus not only called the Druze rebels, but also brought fresh army forces with armored vehicles to Ashrafiya Sahnaya. In addition, fighters from the Saraya Ansar al-Sunna group were transferred to the city, participating in the "pacification" of unrest among the Alawites and distinguished themselves by extrajudicial executions.
The appearance of “gray” field commanders in the clash zone was an alarming sign and indicated that Damascus was planning to deal with its opponents harshly and without regard for Geneva morality.
In light of the current events, the spiritual leader of the Druze in Syria, Hikmat al-Hijri, called on the international community to send troops into Syria to prevent genocide of minorities “according to the Alawite scenario.”
His call was supported by other spiritual authorities, such as the leader of the Druze community in Israel, Sheikh Muafak Tarif. The latter used his influence and connections to raise a wave of protest among the Israeli Druze and force official Tel Aviv to pay attention to the call of its neighbors.
And, as subsequent events showed, Tariff's actions had an effect.
THE ISRAELI RESPONSE
Following military clashes between the Druze and official Damascus, Israel (which in the first days after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime brought troops into Syria to create a buffer zone) remembered the security guarantees given to local sheikhs.
Israeli aviation has increased its activity in the Syrian skies many times over, carrying out about thirty airstrikes in different parts of the country in less than a week.
The targets of the attacks were the headquarters of the new army, air defense facilities and communications centers, as well as airfields. Tel Aviv intended, if not to decapitate, then at least seriously batter the Syrian forces in order to weaken their onslaught against the Druze. At the same time, the armored forces of the Israeli army, stationed in the disputed Golan Heights, also began to move.
Following the call of the Druze sheikhs, they advanced at least several dozen kilometers into Syrian territory for the first time since February. New checkpoints appeared on the highway leading to Damascus.
More transparent hints followed, in particular, Israeli planes carried out a night strike in the immediate vicinity of the presidential palace in Damascus.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz said in a joint statement that the strike near the residence of the first person is a “clear signal to the regime.” In fact, Tel Aviv has issued an ultimatum that it will not allow threats to the Druze community.
TURKEY'S INTERVENTION
Turkey is the only Syrian ally that has chosen to respond harshly to the increasing Israeli airstrikes; Damascus' other partners have limited themselves to expressing concern. On orders from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has closed its airspace to Israeli aircraft.
Erdogan's statements were not taken seriously by Tel Aviv at first, due to the Turkish leader's penchant for sharp populist attacks. However, after Ankara refused to make an exception for the government aircraft "Zion Wing", on which the Israeli prime minister was supposed to fly to Azerbaijan for the summit, Netanyahu became convinced of the seriousness of the threat.
An alternative route bypassing Turkey (via Greece and Bulgaria) would have doubled the distance to Azerbaijan, which was an unpleasant surprise for Tel Aviv. As a result, the Israeli prime minister postponed a multi-day visit to Baku, which was supposed to begin on May 8, citing the difficult situation near the borders.
The postponement of the visit to Azerbaijan indirectly indicates that Turkey has closed the channels of informal communication with Israel through Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev. The latter occupies an “equidistant” position between Ankara and Tel Aviv and has previously acted as a behind-the-scenes mediator in resolving tensions between them several times.
This, in turn, indicates that the Turks are not indifferent to the fate of the Syrian creature and, if the situation worsens further, Ankara will be ready to think about a more serious confrontation with the Israelis.
| Thinking and doing are two different things. Doing requires the confidence that Mossad never sold pagers and cell phones where Turks could get hold of them… |
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