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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

'Al-Sharaa's grip is weak': IDF doubts Syria's control as Golan buffer zone expand

2025-05-06

[Ynet] An Israeli paratrooper from the 202nd Battalion swings open the yellow gate at the Quneitra crossing, the only passage point between Israel and Syria. He steps forward without a helmet—a sign of the relatively low threat level. Eight yards ahead, a fellow soldier opens the inner gray gate with the press of a button.

Once a symbol of Syrian sovereignty, the crossing has faded. The Syrian flag that flew above the checkpoint just months ago is now tattered, and a portrait of Hafez al-Assad—the late president who negotiated a 1974 ceasefire with Israel—lies in fragments across the abandoned border post.

Roughly 50 miles east, Israeli helicopters recently delivered supplies to Druze communities in As-Suwayda, and more than 20 wounded Druze have crossed into Israel for treatment. But at the border, the gunfire remains distant for now.

Six months after Israeli forces entered the Syrian side of the Golan Heights without a fight, the Israel Defense Forces has tripled its deployment in the area. After an initial period of calm, two diverging realities have taken shape.

In the north, about 12 to 18 miles from the border, the IDF has permitted the interim Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa to deploy local police in villages such as Khan Arnabeh, Jubata al-Khashab, and New Quneitra. The move has brought stability, and Israeli soldiers now pass through these communities en route to nine new IDF outposts constructed in Syrian territory.

But in the south, near the road to Daraa, tensions are rising. The more religiously conservative Sunni population, many of whom supported the al-Qaida-linked Jabhat al-Nusra
...formally Jabhat an-Nusrah li-Ahli al-Sham (Support Front for the People of the Levant), also known as al-Qaeda in the Levant. They aim to establish a pan-Arab caliphate. Not the same one as the Islamic State, though .. ...

…most recently called Hayat Tahrir al Sham until they conquered Bashir al Assad’s Syria…

during Syria’s civil war, has resisted disarmament. Two weeks ago, militants in the town of Nawa opened fire on Israeli paratroopers from the 890th Battalion using heavy machine guns from balconies. The soldiers escaped injury.

"We called in Zik drones and eliminated seven militants who posed an immediate threat," said a senior commander. "We could have neutralized 100, but we chose restraint. We didn’t want to go there."

Farther east, near the old Syrian military ridgelines 11 to 12 miles from the border, Israeli forces have chosen not to take control. The IDF occasionally fires warning shots at unidentified figures approaching the abandoned posts. Al-Sharaa’s forces are not allowed to operate in this area, despite outreach from Damascus.

"His regime is still fragile and lacks real control over much of Syria," a senior Israeli officer said. "The Alawite coast remains loyal to Assad, Turkish and Kurdish forces dominate the north, and Bedouin tribes hold sway in the southeast. This southwestern corner is not a high priority for Damascus."

Israeli defense officials recently met with Western diplomats who visited Damascus to assess al-Sharaa’s control. "You walk into government buildings and find 50 empty offices," one European official said. "Only three or four rooms are actually staffed."

Israeli intelligence estimates that al-Sharaa commands around 60,000 lightly armed fighters, most operating from pickup trucks. The IDF believes Turkey is interested in helping establish a formal army under al-Sharaa but has held back due to financial concerns, especially after Israeli operations destroyed major Assad-era weapons depots.

Turkey has been on the brink of financial collapse since the 1990s, despite infusions of cash from various sources and donors. Setting up and training a proper army from scratch is an expensive proposition — especially if Israel chooses to be annoyed.

Iranian forces have withdrawn from the Syrian Golan—a shift Israel welcomed—while Russia still maintains a limited military presence along the coast and in the northeastern city of Qamishli. Israeli officials have also met with Turkish counterparts to discuss coordination.

The IDF has quietly strengthened ties with Druze leaders on both sides of the border. Last month, senior officers met with some 60 Druze sheikhs from Israel and Syria. A proposal to allow Syrian Druze to work in the Israeli Golan has stalled, reportedly due to bureaucratic and insurance issues.

On the ground, Israeli soldiers are adjusting to the new reality. In calmer northern areas, most now travel by vehicle, often without helmets. Still, a fast-moving convoy of pickup trucks from deep inside Syria could reach Kibbutz Ein Zivan in just five minutes by air, warned Lt. Col. G., operations officer for the IDF’s Golan Division.

From the roof of the old Quneitra police station—a grim Soviet-style relic—Israeli soldiers now overlook new bases, reinforced shelters, and permanent infrastructure built at a cost of tens of millions of shekels. Food is trucked in from kitchens on the Israeli side of the border.

At the edge of the frontier, IDF engineers are constructing a 56-mile defensive line of trenches and embankments. About 20 percent of the project is complete. During a patrol near the Syrian village of Qahtania, soldiers encountered three smiling children. One wore a shirt bearing symbols of "New Syria" and the image of Ahmad al-Sharaa.

Nearby, three motorcycles seized from Syrians who approached too close to Israeli positions are parked outside an outpost flying the red flags of the Paratroopers Brigade. The riders may have been scouting troop movements.

"Intelligence remains a challenge," said Lt. Col. G. "We make one or two arrests a month, but if we get actionable intel, we act immediately—with arrests or force, if needed."

Posted by:Grom the Affective

#1 Watch: Syria's new leader shows off skills on the basketball court

Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-05-06 05:44

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