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| Europe |
| If America Abandons Europe, Will the Continent Fragment or Unify? |
| 2025-06-13 |
| [War On The Rocks] For over seventy years, U.S. military power has formed the backbone of Europe’s security architecture. American leadership enabled the continent to prioritize political integration and economic development while relying on a trans-Atlantic alliance to deter external threats. That arrangement is now under increasing strain. In his second term, President Donald Trump has pushed European allies to commit up to five percent of their gross domestic product to defense and has signaled that the United States may no longer provide a conventional military backstop on the continent. Some suggest that this is a calculated effort to compel Europe to assume greater responsibility and that the United States will remain committed to the alliance. Yet even if that is the intent rather than absolute abandonment, the effect is the same: Europe would be prudent to plan for a future without an American security guarantee. What follows from such a shift is far from predetermined. One possibility is that the shock of American disengagement catalyzes greater European unity and strategic coherence. Another is that the loss of U.S. leadership accelerates internal divisions and geopolitical vulnerability. Which path Europe takes will depend on choices made now — by policymakers who should prepare for contingency, not continuity. EUROPE LEFT ALONE YET MORE UNITED In the first scenario, European NATO member states respond to a sustained American withdrawal by expanding their security capacities through a range of measures, including the formation of new partnerships, the enlargement of their armed forces, and the strengthening of domestic defense industries. Unlike more ambiguous past episodes, Washington is now making its intentions clear through concrete actions — systematically withdrawing from Europe and signaling that it no longer considers the continent a strategic priority by either de jure or de facto dismissal of security agreements. In an effort to concentrate on countering China and driving a wedge between Beijing and Moscow, Washington either intensifies cooperation with Moscow or begins clearly recognizing a Russian sphere of influence in its immediate neighborhood. These moves send a message that the U.S.-European alliance is no longer a U.S. priority, and the United States is not likely to be positioned to come to Europe’s defense in the event of Russian aggression — or be willing to do so. European leaders come to recognize that their only viable path forward lies in developing a more unified and strategically coherent security architecture. In the absence of U.S. leadership, previously peripheral actors become more central. The United Kingdom, despite no longer being part of the European Union, takes an important role by mobilizing support from Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia to contribute to European security initiatives. At the same time, the United Kingdom maintains close ties with the United States and increasingly acts as a bridge between the two sides of the Atlantic. War on the Rocks is the op-ed side about policy and national security for general readership of the Siamese twins produced by and for the University of Texas. Texas National Security Review is their scholarly publication. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #17 The Wargame podcast A simulation from skynews. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2025-06-13 15:59 |
| #16 Not recently, Matt. Back in the 1990s they closed most of the American military bases in Germany, at least — it played havoc with rent structures, and from there to a lesser extent with house prices. Also this from 2015: US Announces it Will Close 15 Military Bases in Europe And this Fact Sheet as of late last year points out that Bill Clinton, Bush I and Bush Ii toegether ckised about 1000 bases. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2025-06-13 14:42 |
| #15 Unfortunate and very costly truths found at both 13 and 14. But wait, there's more! Openly siding with leftest, tribal regimes in Africa is yet another unatoned sin. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2025-06-13 14:36 |
| #14 As far as I can tell not one American soldier has been withdrawn from Europe; and as far as I can tell the size of Western Europe's armies has not increased by more than a couple of thousand, if that, despite Vance clubbing them with an industrial strength cluebat. |
| Posted by: Matt 2025-06-13 13:14 |
| #13 Why would we "get dragged into it"? Cut them loose. It's only the bloodthirsty neocons who involve us in every war who would want that. I mean, we're involved in every brush fire war in Africa for no reason. The US military even has an "Africa command" if you can believe that. As if it's a US territory or something. the blob. |
| Posted by: Jairong+Scourge+of+the+Gepids2435 2025-06-13 13:12 |
| #12 Winged Hussars |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2025-06-13 13:09 |
| #11 Yes. A few Eastern countries will band together, but the rest will collapse due to infighting and be swallowed up by the caliphate |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2025-06-13 12:55 |
| #10 Best to keep sitting on them. We don't want them building up their military capabilities because they'll just start another war and we'll get dragged into it. Look at the mess they've made in Ukraine. They need a leash around their necks to keep them from trying to conquer Russia. They've tried it before and all indications are they'll try it again. The purpose of NATO is no longer to keep the Russians out. It's to keep the Germans, French, British and Poles down. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2025-06-13 12:51 |
| #9 East Europe and West Europe will respond differ, I think. In the east they still bear the spirit of the Winged Hussars. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2025-06-13 12:08 |
| #8 ^Neh. It's their selective blindness (doesn't fit the theory) in action. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-06-13 10:07 |
| #7 ...Muslim? |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2025-06-13 09:42 |
| #6 ^They don't think small - they want to remake the whole world in their image. |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-06-13 09:35 |
| #5 Europe will fall like a house of cards. They think small and are very provincial. |
| Posted by: AlmostAnonymous5839 2025-06-13 09:26 |
| #4 ^These Aryans sure stick together! |
| Posted by: Grom the Affective 2025-06-13 09:17 |
| #3 European Leaders Chastise Israel For Striking Iran, Call For De-Escalation |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2025-06-13 07:49 |
| #2 Europe will do whatever their Muslim overlords want while letting their daughters and young sons be sex trafficked. Europe has been colonized and is no longer European. |
| Posted by: Silentbrick 2025-06-13 04:56 |
| #1 Why did we ever provide welfare for such disrespectful, ungrateful people? |
| Posted by: Jairong+Scourge+of+the+Gepids2435 2025-06-13 02:05 |