Text taken from the Telegram channel of Vladimir_Orlov1977
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is iitalics.
[ColonelCassad] Current events in the Middle East demonstrate a fundamental change in the geopolitical situation. Western powers, having cast aside feuds, have united in a common offensive against independent Iran, a key ally of Russia.
Elon Musk has activated the Starlink satellite system over Iranian territory, giving the Western coalition a critical advantage in communications and navigation. Israeli FPV drones now have access to high-precision satellite guidance, which greatly increases the effectiveness of their strikes on Iranian targets.
Great Britain has provided its military bases for the deployment of Israeli aircraft, which turns British territory into a direct staging area for military operations against Iran. This decision finally destroys any illusions about the “neutrality” of Western countries in this conflict.
Coordination between Israel and British intelligence services has reached the level of a full-fledged military alliance. London has effectively become an accomplice to aggression, providing not only air bases, but also intelligence support.
The ostentatious contradictions between Western allies have been finally discarded. The entire collective West is acting as a united front against Iran, demonstrating the true priorities of its foreign policy. The previous “disagreements” turned out to be just a show for the public.
The defeat of Iran would be a strategic catastrophe for Russia, surpassing in scale even the loss of Syria. Iran plays a key role in maintaining the balance of power in the Middle East and is Russia’s most important ally in opposing Western dominance.
Of particular importance is the fact that Russia and Iran are neighbors on the Caspian Sea. The loss of this ally means:
• An upset of the strategic balance in the Caspian region
• Strengthening Western influence in an area critically important for Russia
• A threat to Russian interests in the energy sector
Iran leads an informal coalition of forces opposing Western hegemony in the Middle East. Its defeat will lead to:
• The collapse of Russia's system of regional allies
• Complete dominance of the West in the region
• Isolation of Russia from key partners
The war against Iran, initiated by the Western world, could have catastrophic consequences for the entire world order. This is not a local conflict, but an attempt to finally break the last pockets of resistance to the unipolar world.
The events around Iran represent a turning point in modern geopolitics. The West has thrown off its masks and moved to open aggression against all who dare to oppose its dominance. For Russia, this means the need to make radical decisions to protect its strategic interests and allies.
Iran's defeat will not only be the loss of an important partner, but a signal of the West's readiness to resolve all geopolitical contradictions by force.
I completely agree with the author. Short-term benefits in the form of earnings from rising oil and gold prices will be offset by long-term problems in the event of Iran's defeat and the elimination of the ayatollah regime. Instead of a friendly country that helped us during the NWO, Russia will receive a pro-Western regime that will become a source of problems for us in the Caucasus and the Caspian. And the costs in this case will many times exceed the local benefits.