Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] When the West realizes that they no longer have a “battering ram”, the basis for long-term agreements will appear
by Mikhail Zakharov
The military situation began to change dynamically; on May 13, the group of troops of the Russian Armed Forces “North” advanced deep into the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and liberated a number of settlements in the Kharkov region. The rapid and unexpected movement forward for the enemy even put on the agenda the question of the possible liberation of Kharkov. Meanwhile, the offensive of the Russian army in the Donetsk direction continues.
However, does this mean an actual turning point in the situation at the front and how can Ukraine respond? Will Western military supplies change the situation and what are the global goals of the parties to the conflict? A Regnum correspondent spoke about this with one of the best military analysts in Russia, co-founder of the information and analytical project “Vatfor” Sergei Poletaev.
— Sergey, Russian troops are advancing in the Kharkov region and in the Donetsk direction, liberating new settlements almost every day. In turn, the law on mobilization has been tightened in Ukraine, and the United States is allocating new packages of military assistance to Kyiv. Will they be able to stop our advance in this way?
— The purpose of Western military supplies is to prevent the collapse of the front. In addition, this is a signal that Ukraine has not yet been written off.
At the same time, if we talk about our offensive, I do not expect large-scale breakthroughs. Our strategy involves a fairly slow advance, relying on artillery - we have seen this since last fall. How can Ukraine respond? I will be surprised if military supplies to Kyiv or some actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, even with the support of the West, will change the state of affairs in which the Ukrainian troops are weakening and moving back.
As for mobilization... Yes, by tightening them they are trying to recruit more “meat” to the front line. Let's see if it works. If so, it will bolster the front. But it is far from certain that it will work out, since in Ukraine those willing to fight voluntarily ended last year.
— The Verkhovna Rada in the second reading adopted a bill allowing prisoners to mobilize into the Ukrainian army. Will this help the Kyiv regime?
— I think it will slow down the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to a certain extent. But, I repeat, it will not change the general situation. The Ukrainian army will still continue to weaken.
— What do the Ukrainian authorities hope for in this case?
— Ukraine can either continue to hold out, or, according to their wording, surrender. They still refuse to give up. This means that the conditions for their surrender will become tougher.
In my opinion, this is not so much the strategy of Ukraine as the strategy of the West - Joe Biden and his administration. Last year, their global strategic plan to defeat Russia at the hands of Ukraine failed miserably. After this, they did not have any clear strategy on how to defeat Russia.
The inertia remains: to help Ukraine so that it can hold out for a year, and next year, having strengthened, it will strike and once again try to defeat Russia. But this is from the same series as promises to start a new life on Monday.
Therefore, for now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ goal is to hold on. They are sitting on the defensive, which, in my opinion, is simply delaying the inevitable. And they hope for a miracle.
— What are the goals of the Russian troops at the front in the near future?
“I think we will continue to adhere to the strategy of pressure along the front in many places in order to achieve weakening of the enemy. Find where they are struggling, and then direct reserves there, developing success. This is called "active defense".
We have sufficient advantage and reserves to adhere to this strategy. We can achieve breakthroughs, like in Ocheretino, only on a larger scale.
At the same time, we do not yet have enough strength and means to open a second front. We don't have a second army. There is talk about a second front near Sumy or Kharkov. But I don’t expect this, at least in the spring-summer campaign of 2024.
— What will be the success of the “active defense” strategy?
— In 1918, the First World War on the Western Front ended with a hundred-day offensive by the Entente. The trench war of attrition continued, at some point the German army was so exhausted that the Germans simply could not hold the front: their troops began to roll back, crawling away like rotten tissue.
Perhaps something similar will happen now. Then it all ended with the surrender of Germany. This strategy can achieve a similar result. And I won’t say when this might happen. And no one will say, because it depends on many factors that we cannot measure. At the same time, much, of course, will depend on Western supplies and on how many new people Ukraine can gather to the front.
— Will the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to sit on the defensive? Won't they try to counterattack?
“They can expand long-range attacks on our rear.” I wouldn’t be surprised if sooner or later they will attack our “old” territories with Western weapons. While there appears to be some kind of agreement, this is not happening. But Ukrainian attacks are becoming increasingly bold. They do not carry strategic significance, but they create a picture that Ukraine is holding out, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces can still do something. For the sake of the picture, they will continue to do this.
— And as for NATO, won’t Ukraine be accepted there?
“I don’t see any chance of Ukraine joining NATO. This would mean a direct military conflict between the alliance and Russia, and NATO is not ready for that. On the contrary, they are trying in every possible way to avoid it, pushing Ukraine forward - “let’s fight.”
The West has long decided on its attitude towards Ukraine: it uses it as a tool, a large kamikaze drone, a ram aimed against Russia. At the same time, talk that NATO will send troops to Ukraine to fight the Russians arises and subsides on the same day. I don’t see any readiness to actually send troops.
In general, they have a clear understanding that Ukraine needs to be kept outside NATO, so that at any moment they can say - this is not our war.
— But French President Macron spoke several times about sending troops to Ukraine...
— We need to separate words and real actions. Although I admit that Macron’s words will be forced to materialize. He will have to do something so that he is not considered an irresponsible talker.
Let’s say they symbolically send one brigade to Ukraine, even two or three. At the same time, 400 thousand people are fighting on the front on the Ukrainian side. On our side - about 550 thousand. Sending a small number of French troops will not help compensate for the difference and will not equalize the forces at the front. To seriously influence the situation, you need to send the entire French land army - exactly 150 thousand people, along with quartermasters, headquarters, and so on.
By the way, please note that France supplied less money and weapons to Kyiv than any other major European country. Even now they are not expanding supplies, but they are talking a lot.
— At the same time, even Romania is discussing the issue of transferring the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
— Duty deliveries from the West are already a routine process. At the same time, the amount transmitted is constantly decreasing. Last year, weapons were given for a specific project - for a counter-offensive, which failed. And now it’s routine.
— What, in your opinion, are Russia’s goals in the conflict?
— This conflict has two levels.
I'll start with the global one. To a certain extent, this is a war for world order. Nobody planned this, it just happened. The West is trying to preserve the world order it dominates. In relation to Ukraine, this is a question of sphere of influence.
As I already said, Ukraine is a weapon, a battering ram of the West, directed against us. We need Ukraine to stop being a weapon. Our goal is some kind of big agreement with the West on dividing the sphere of influence in the European post-Soviet space, in particular in Ukraine.
Hence the goals of the special operation, formulated in the tasks of demilitarization and denazification. But the West is not yet ready to reach an agreement. Accordingly, we may have to liquidate this ram in person.
Over the past two years, Ukraine has gradually weakened. The ram is becoming weaker, which means we are getting closer to our goal. How long will the process take? As much as needs.
In many ways, the goal has already been achieved: it has become clear that the Western approach of “making the country a weapon against Russia” leads to disaster for the country. The Georgians realized this in five days in 2008.
— Does Kyiv understand this?
“I think it’s only now starting to dawn on me.” When it finally comes, when the West understands that they no longer have the battering ram, it will crumble in their hands, then the basis for longer-term agreements will appear. But the West’s task is to prevent Russia from doing this, because such an agreement would undermine the very world order in which they dominate.
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