h/t Instapundit
[Spectator] This is one of the most crucial weeks in modern British history. We have a prime minister and cabinet who understand the stakes in terms of our future independence. But the forces fighting them ‐ some of them sincere, many of them cynical ‐ are fearsome. There are risks in proceeding with Brexit. But there are far greater risks in abandoning it.
This endless crisis has led to widespread criticism of British politicians of all hues, some of it justified. I find it deeply distasteful to see very senior Conservatives plotting with the opposition to bring down the Prime Minister. But far less criticism has been levelled at the EU itself ‐ which is odd, because Brussels is the cause of our agonies, past and present. The Brexit vote would have gone the other way if it had had the wit to give David Cameron the concessions he begged for. But that is not the nature of the EU imperial class. They intended to send a message: Brussels does not respond to democratic pressure. The British public got that message, and voted to leave.
The EU should have been dismayed over the loss of its oldest democracy and its second largest contributor. Our Brexit vote was a stunning indictment of the way the EU has been run: we asked it to reform, it refused; it dared us to vote to leave and we did. But rather than learn lessons and negotiate Brexit in good faith, it deployed the kind of cynicism exposed in the BBC fly-on-the-wall documentary Brexit: Behind Closed Doors, in which we hear private conversations between the EU negotiators, who are clearly determined to delay and give nothing to the British negotiators whom they mock.
1) Considerable turbulence on the stock markets, above all a collapse of the Pound. Increase in import prices, annual inflation of up to 5.25%, recession.
2) Border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland becomes the new EU external border. This threatens to undermine the peace that was achieved with the Good Friday Agreement of 1998. One third of Northern Ireland's goods that cross the border face tariffs of 15% or more. In combination with non-tariff barriers to trade, such as checks on compliance with sanitary and hygiene standards, trade could fall by 20%. One in twenty jobs in the region would be threatened.
3) The Irish government assumes that an unregulated Brexit will cost 55,000 jobs in the short term and another 30,000 jobs in the medium term. It expects severe disruptions in Irish-British trade. No-Deal-Brexit will reduce Irish economic performance by 3.3% over five years and by 5% in ten years. Employment falls by 2 to 3.4%.
4) Half of all British goods exports are threatened by delays and price increases. Substantial EU tariffs would mainly apply to car parts and agricultural goods; in addition there would be the necessary checks on compliance with product standards. Emergency planning at ports should mitigate the consequences, but not eliminate them. Some trade agreements with third countries, including Canada, Turkey and Japan, also lose their validity.
5) Some 245,000 small UK companies are currently trading with the EU without having to report it. For No-Deal-Brexit they need an Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number and customs declarations. Only 30% of them have applied for an EORI number. For a no deal Brexit, the number of customs declarations to be processed increases from 55 million annually to 250 million. The UK would need about two years to set up an adequate registration system.
6) The British government has announced that it will almost not impose customs duties on imports from the chaotic Brexit. This will expose British manufacturers to a blow of cheap competition from third countries, which until now have been held back by EU external tariffs.
7) The highly competitive British food trade is based on low margins and low logistics costs. Even small increases in delivery times and costs can have a strong impact. 30% of food consumed in the UK comes from the EU, for example an important proportion of fruit and vegetables come from Spain. Delays at ports would have the greatest effect on perishable goods.
8) The manufacturing industry depends on deliveries in real time and without large stocks. This affects aircraft (parts) and car manufacturers. The automotive industry accounts for 13% of British exports and directly employs 186,000 people. Around 60% of the parts used in a British car are imported from the EU. Another important supplier is Turkey, which is in a customs union with the EU. The British supplier landscape is not large enough to compensate foreign suppliers. Customs duties would make the export of a British car to the EU, the largest sales market in the industry, an average of £2700 more expensive.
9) The government plans to allow many products into the country duty-free in the case of No-Deal-Brexit in order to mitigate price shocks. Conversely, British farmers will not have this advantage when exporting to the EU. The EU accounts for two thirds of British food exports.
10) 40% of British food exports pass through the Dover and Folkestone ports. Deliveries would have to be inspected and tested either at or near the border when entering the EU. Animal feed must be checked for correct labelling. Organic food requires a special import permit. The UK would be excluded from access to the European Food Safety Authority and its rapid alert system for health risks.
11) Great Britain has one of the world's largest pharmaceutical industries. The sector generated sales of £64 billion in 2016 and employed 233 000 people. 48% of exports were exported to the EU in 2015 and 74% of the sector's imports came from there. Here, too, supply chains are highly integrated across countries and do not require long storage periods. According to a government estimate, the No-Deal-Brexit could reduce the gross value added of the sector by more than 20% over 15 years compared to remaining in the EU. Another threat is the possible decoupling from the EU regulatory framework for medicines and medical devices. The UK needed its own authorisation system. The approval burden for companies would double and delays would weaken the attractiveness of the location.
13) The British chemicals sector supplies 60% of its goods to the EU and procures 75% of its raw materials from there. Every chemical sold to the EU must have an authorisation under the unregulated Brexit, and this must be issued to a company established in the EU. Conversely, any chemical imported into the UK must also be registered there. The EU database, called Reach, contains 21 000 chemicals. Of these, 5000 chemicals are registered with companies established in the UK. In extreme cases, the UK industry loses access to 16 000 chemicals.
14) Services account for around 80% of the UK's economic output. The UK is the world's second largest exporter of services. Of the £283 billion worth of exports in 2018 (45% of all UK exports), £117 billion were delivered to EU customers. In this field, the country generates a large trade surplus. The No-Deal-Brexit and the abolition of the internal market mean great legal uncertainty for British suppliers in the EU. The recognition there of many professional approvals, for example by doctors and architects, would be called into question because it has to come from an EU country.
15) Without so-called EU equivalence recognition, EU companies would no longer be able to transfer personal data to British companies without difficulty. For example, a UK conference centre could lose bookings from European customers because they violate data protection rules when they send the list of participants to the conference provider.
16) Financial services from banks, brokers and exchanges, as well as related services from insurance companies and law firms, are an important pillar of the UK economy. Their contribution to gross domestic product in 2018 was just under 8%. Without EU equivalence recognition, they face exclusion from the EU market.
17) The supply of medicines is also likely to be affected by bottlenecks and delays at the ports. Every month, 37 million packages of medicines are shipped from the EU to the UK and 45 million packages in the opposite direction. The British government has called on pharmaceutical manufacturers to build up stocks for three months. One particular concern is the supply of insulin, which is almost entirely imported from the continent.
18) Almost 6% of the labour force in the English part of the NHS comes from other EU countries, compared with 3% in Scotland. Their residence status must be clarified and secured. Similar to research and education, Brexit already discourages European professionals. There is great concern about a shortage of medical personnel, especially nurses and in rural areas.
20) The United Kingdom is part of various police and judicial systems in the EU. These include the European Search System (European Arrest Warrant), the Schengen Information System (a database on border management), Europol (a judicial authority) and databases on visa issuance, criminal records, law enforcement coordination and fingerprint identification. The No-Deal-Brexit interrupts the active participation in these systems as well as the access to all data.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
09/11/2019 15:06 Comments ||
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#5
This assessment is part of our own contingency planning within my company.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
09/11/2019 15:07 Comments ||
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#6
And Times River will run blood. And all the firstborn Britons (most of whom are named Muhammad) will die.
#7
This is not about ideology, just about cold hard money. We are prepared.
Are you?
Posted by: European Conservative ||
09/11/2019 15:33 Comments ||
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#8
Jeez I've seen some crap from Y2k but that one's biblically OTT.
Hows the German economy after Merkels ginormous gimmigrant giveaway.
The economy works based on people being productive. No productivity changes in Brexit, in fact with less subsidised migration and swapping out income taxes and upping tariffs the economy can improve, after all there's no lead for the 20% internal EUSSR tariff called VAT.
The British will be able to sell their goods around the world (especially in the Commonwealth) without restrictions put in place because of EU protections on member products.
#15
If you read what I posted: The British will first have to MAKE all these products without relying on the European supply chain AND if they do, they will first have to make up for the losses they will suffer in the EU market and cope with new competition from all those Commonwealth countries which will be able to now sell their products in the UK at bargain prices.
Just an example: Pharmaceutical products.
Posted by: European Conservative ||
09/11/2019 16:37 Comments ||
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#16
Yes people will just stop buying and selling things they'll be no substitution and the EUSSR is such an efficient market that doesnt charge high tariffs and produce such unique items that cannot be found elsewhere without any substitution.
No wonder the EUSSR economy is so screwed if what EC emotes is mainstream economic "thought".
The Yellowhammer document predicts that a no-deal Brexit would lead to food, medicine and petrol shortages, with a hard border in the island of Ireland, and "three-month meltdown" at ports unable to cope with extra checks. There could be protests requiring police action, and thousands of jobs could be lost as two oil refineries closed. A senior Whitehall source said "This is not Project Fear, this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios – not the worst case."
Posted by: European Conservative ||
09/11/2019 17:30 Comments ||
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#19
This is not Project Fear? Sounds like FUD to me.
It was costly to fight Hitler and Napoleon but the British decided that independence was more important. In the end, Hitler and Napoleon paid even higher prices. The people who run the EUSSR might want to consider the lessons of history. And, once again, the British might find Americans, Canadians, New Zealanders and Australians to be helpful.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
09/11/2019 19:47 Comments ||
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#21
Northern Ireland's goods that cross the border face tariffs of 15% or more.
I assume this already applies to US-EU trade. Pres Trump is gonna have a field day with this. What will the Euro nations do when reciprocal tariffs are applied?
Posted by: Vinegar Protector of the Slytherins7734 ||
09/11/2019 21:25 Comments ||
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#22
It should be part of any US-Brit free trade agreement that reciprocal EU tariffs apply. My checkbook has worn out paying others bills.
Posted by: Vinegar Protector of the Slytherins7734 ||
09/11/2019 21:28 Comments ||
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#23
EC, I forgot to compliment you on your elegant Shakespearean riposte last night.
I feared that someone might reply with Hotspur's "shame the devil" retort, but I see now I underestimated you.
h/t Instapundit
[NationalReview] By his own admission, the recently fired FBI director James Comey leaked at least four memos of private presidential conversations ‐ at least one of them containing some classified secret material ‐ variously to his lawyers and through liaisons to the press. In both phone calls and personal meetings, Comey never gave any hint to the president he served that he intended to leave a written record of the conversations for what turned out to be his own selfish agenda.
Comey said his intent by leaking his versions of these conversations was to force a brouhaha that would in turn prompt Acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to appoint a special counsel. That gambit worked to perfection when, shortly after Comey’s scripted media leaks, Robert Mueller, his predecessor, former FBI director, and longtime friend, was appointed special counsel, apparently to do what the now fired James Comey could not.
...Yet despite taking more than 22 months and costing over $30 million in costs, the Mueller team’s investigation found no collusion and no grounds for indicting Trump on obstruction of the non-crime of collusion. So, many months and millions later, Mueller ended up exempting the real Russian collusion while chasing in vain the fake collusion.
h/t Instapundit
[AmericanGreatness] The September 11, 2001 attacks were the result of an unmitigated intelligence failure. No, 9/11 was not an "inside job," as many conspiracy theorists believe. Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network were responsible. But, the 9/11 plot did not happen in a vacuum.
In reality, America’s elephantine national security state had known of bin Laden and his network years before the horrific events of 9/11. Some of the most powerful people in the national security state routinely downplayed and ignored the threat al-Qaeda posed to the United States before 19 hijackers murdered 2,911 people in New York, Washington, and Pennsylvania.
#5
Gorelick and her Chinese Wall is directly culpable for the failure to detect the flight school clues that would have stopped it like the BoJinka plot. Lawyering and ass covering infest our national security policy and systems. Yet another gift of the Clinton era never examined adequately in the light of day.
#6
Intelligence agencies, militaries, politicians, law... they're ultimately comprised of people. It is a complacently liberal society that failed you. The bureaucrats came later, out of you.
Who died ? People at work. Taxpayers, service personnel, clerks, real * people. Who didn't ? Wards of the state, professional emoters, celebrities and useless motherfuckers that voted for and fielded muslims in their constituencies.
DRUNKEN RANT
Instead of a nationwide quarantine on muslims like you did with japos after pearl harbor, assholes in the State Dept went on to employ more muslims, saying they needed 'culture translators' and 'advisors about islam' to combat the 'extremists'. As if no one had learned anything about islam yet. They had practically created the jihadi. I won't bring that up, Carter and the USSR bigfoot... No.
And then America went on to elect a nig..wakandan with Hussein in his name. Just because he was a dandy fop and a hit with the rebels, the dregs of real * society. And the rest of America went on, went to their progressive churches, their tupperware parties, worried about mortgages and the kardashians. While Langley and the puzzle box proceeded to do whatever the fuck they think they're doing in Afghanistan. because Bin Laden may've taken a few shits in them hills ? The schweinhund was in Pakistain all along ! Why not declare war on them ? No, they had to be paid billions to what ? Oh ! Find and arrest terrorists.
* real people, real society = law abiding folks that coexist without hassle.
I say it was not the alphabeteers that failed, but a society that slowly compromised with being preyed upon, by politicians protecting predators. The wakandans - because oh your grandpaws once whipped them into a semblance of urbanity. The muslims - who we must respect the sensitivities of, halaal burgers and burkinis and CAIRs because really we are afraid of facing butchers with federal protectors. Now, we are beset by everything from dyke militias with pepper spray to cartels operating in suburbs a cop dares not enter.
It's easy to blame elected and appointed officials for being useless, but you had the Ist and IInd amendment rights. Every gun-owning American should have declared war on the Abduls and the Akbars right then, until the state had to call for a truce and they huddled shivering in camps. This is something even people as far as China could not believe - that no one even tried, save for the motley placard holders and unhinged sorts who made the further case for protection of muslims from backlash. There was no decisive response to islamics from the most armed citizenry on earth. I still haven't.
Maybe this constant drumming of humanist bullshit ideals in schools, the faux faith of systematizing everything from guilt to angst, psycho babble and group hugs and sitting in a circle talking about shit to forget it, enabled society to overcome and compromise with the murder of their own. I'm not saying religion would have been better, turn the cheek an' all that will see you in chains in fact. I'm frustrated with the inaction. And I'm not even American ! But when I see the most powerful nation on earth, with the most self-governing of societies, armed to the teeth, acquiesce to a nanny state that allows 'islamic patrols' in the same city. A CAIR on capitol hill even after a thing like 9/11, I fear for the whole world. I'll admit my fear. I thank Gawd my hatred burns hotter than fear. I believe many American people feel the same way. More.
There is going to be a critical point some day. There has to be a learned, coordinated action against traitors and infiltrators by citizens, by serving personnel, counter-partisans working within the govt. The left are clearly traitors, and in the minority. If the left can raise such a well coordinated and protected antifa, why can't the Right ? Look at how HK stood up to the Han giant recently, ouster of dictators and forced resignations of islamist and symp politicians worldwide. Islamists have to be shown they have no say or political power in our societies. They have to be dis-empowered.
End of Rant. Sorry fro being a prick. Shit, I probably shouldn't drink and type.
#7
Should have done everything possible to side-line the Wahhabi as the voice of Sunni Islam.
Should have left Afghanistan in rubble and destroyed the opium crops entirely and then moved on instead of trying to nation build a spot that has never had a proper nation before.
After Afghanistan we should have had a long existential talk with the Saudi's.
#11
As they say, in vino veritas. Of course, if you feel the same way when you sober up ..,
Posted by: Rambler in Virginia ||
09/11/2019 14:19 Comments ||
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#12
I have a condition. I can't feel guilt. ☺
No of course, I feel the same way. It's just not nice to preach gloom and doom to friends all the time.
I speak from an advantage right now of course, things have been contained where I am, but this deluge is already crashing on my shores, in more subtil forms. The only reason the islamists have left an easy target like India alone for so long, is because the west made themselves an easier target.
[Jpost] Israel’s alleged three-pronged attacks in the last two weeks in Syria, Iraq and above all, in Dahiye, the vast Beirut Shi’ite neighborhood where the Hezbollah is headquartered above and below ground, was met with a very limited Hezbollah response. An IDF truck was stuck by two missiles with the obvious objective of killing Israeli soldiers in retaliation of the killing of two Hezbollah soldiers in an Israeli attack on Syria. The limited response against military personnel only sent a strong signal, acknowledged by the Israeli side that Hezbollah wanted to avoid escalation that could lead to all-out war.
Presumably, the attack violated Hezbollah’s redlines in order to destroy equipment that would have facilitated the local manufacture of precision-guided missiles that could render Israel’s key strategic infrastructure ‐ power plants, airbases, sea and air-ports ‐ so vulnerable.
Israel, then, felt compelled to do the same as it had been doing for nearly two years in Syria, in Leb as well.
Continued on Page 49
[AmericanThinker] Bruce Deitrick Price in a recent article at quora.com perceptively noted that "teachers understand a lot less about what’s going on in their own classrooms than you might imagine." I've a simple rule - if she/he/it has a degree (from teacher to PhD) in XXX education they know XXX the way non-Arabic speaking Muslim knows Koran
He adds that the Education Establishment has "done a great job of making everything so murky that nobody understands what is going on." Murky is a synonym for "shadowy" such as the shadows on the wall in Plato’s Allegory of the Cave in Book VII of The Republic. The murkiness is premised on the belief that educational outcomes can be produced, even mass produced, independent of the commitment or natural abilities of the student. Classroom settings and accepted behaviors, software programs, positive thinking, and making allowance for supposed cultural differences among various groups of learners would allow for more consistent success at a high level for most students. This of course has proved false. But very remunerative, with a very positive effect on female white-collar employment
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
